2018 NASCAR Championship Predictions for Homestead

by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

After a long and grueling season, NASCAR’s championship weekend will commence at Homestead-Miami Speedway as fans anticipate the crowning of a champion in each of NASCAR’s top 3 series. The Championship 4 has been decided for each series leaving just one final race to determine the season’s champion. From a betting standpoint, it has been a rather difficult year as “favorites” have prevailed for the majority of the season limiting some of the profit potential. However none of that really matters this week because everything comes down to one final race. Before we take advantage of one final betting opportunity in 2018, I wanted to take the time to provide a few bold predictions and make my picks for the champion that will prevail this weekend in each series.

Camping World Truck Series

The Camping World Truck Series will crown their champion Friday night with the running of the Ford Ecoboost 200. I love the fact that the Truck Series will go under the lights at Homestead and wish the other series would follow suit for night racing in the Homestead finale. Anyway, the drivers that will be fighting for a championship include the likes Brett Moffitt fresh off his victory at ISM Raceway last week, Johnny Sauter who most would consider the majority favorite, Justin Haley the underdog, and Noah Gragson who has shown speed throughout the year.

Homestead-Miami Speedway is a fantastic track that provides a little bit of everything. The surface has not been paved since 2003 which provides a lot of tire wear. The groove can be anywhere from the bottom, middle, to the very top of the track. Lastly there is not a lot of grip which means drivers will have to wheel it around the track. In so many ways, it is just a driver’s track that produces great racing. With those things in mind, it would be hard to expect Friday night’s race to be decided by anyone except Johnny Sauter and Brett Moffitt. I still think Moffitt is the best driver in the series which he proved again last week by taking a car to victory lane that really was not a winning car. However, Sauter continues to have the speed and the full team effort that makes the #21 group extremely difficult to beat.

As a result, I think this race comes down to Sauter and Moffitt for the title. I just don’t think the track suits Gragson’s driving style to consider him a sharp upset. I expect Justin Haley will be solid and he does hold some upset potential. However, long run speed will be critical at this race despite the mere 200 miles of racing. When the tires start wearing, it is going to be a lot of car in the driver’s hands. For that reason, I think the pick is Brett Moffitt. Moffitt has been so good this year on long runs especially at tracks with lower grip; I just think the #16 team finds a way to get the job done and remind us Cinderella stories still come true.

Champion Prediction: Brett Moffitt

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Xfinity Series

The race for the Xfinity Series Championship will take place Saturday afternoon with the running of the Ford Ecoboost 300. The 4 drivers alive in the championship hunt include Cole Custer, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, and Daniel Hemric. Obviously, I think Christopher Bell stands alone as the agreed upon favorite by everyone. The driver of the #20 has been fantastic this season and appears to be in-line for a Cup Series ride after the 2019 season. Before last week’s race at ISM Raceway, Bell was in a must-win situation after finding trouble at both Kansas and Texas. So what did the young 23 year old do? He delivered in clutch fashion while earning his series leading 7th victory of the season to set the stage for a prime shot at a championship in his rookie season.

For as good as Bell has been, I will say this; Cole Custer and Daniel Hemric have been equally fast. Custer broke through and finally got a win at Texas two weeks ago. Meanwhile, Hemric has still not made it to victory lane despite having the fastest car in the field on numerous occasions. For whatever reason, the driver and team just have not capitalized on their opportunities with the #21 car and that plays a factor into excluding their probability to earn the championship this weekend. The stakes are going to be higher and more intense this weekend. Will the #21 team blow another opportunity if they do have the speed or will they break the curse? If you have not shaken off the demons during the season, my confidence level for you to pull through at Homestead is not very high.

For Tyler Reddick, I just don’t think the #9 team has the outright speed or at least they have not been able to show impressive speed on a consistent basis. I will admit Reddick is better at 1.5 miles than other surfaces but I just don’t think that will be enough. Therefore, my thoughts is this championship is going to come down to Christopher Bell and Cole Custer. As most are aware, Custer dominated the Ford Ecoboost 300 last year. The #00 team kind of came out of nowhere that weekend to lead 182 of the 200 laps. Obviously that boost Custer’s stock this weekend but not just that; Custer has been best on the 1.5 miles this season. In fact, let’s compare Custer and Bell’s finishes on 1.5 mile surfaces below:

As you can see, the numbers are pretty equal between Bell and Custer on the 1.5 mile tracks. In fact, you could easily make the argument that Custer has outperformed Bell on the 1.5 mile tracks during the 2nd half of the season. Therefore, I do not think this #00 team is the underdog that everybody perceives. Taking into consideration the dominate victory last year at Homestead, Custer is make pick for the Xfinity Series Championship.

Champion Prediction: Brett Moffitt

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Monster Energy Cup Series

For the majority of the season, the talk among the Cup Series has revolved around the “Big 3” in Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex Jr. I know I personally got tired of talking about the “Big 3” in my previews every week but you could not ignore the dominance. On the season, the Big 3 has produced 20 victories which is simply remarkable. Last week, Kyle Busch tied Harvick’s season total by scoring his 8th victory of the season at ISM Raceway. It’s only fitting that now the Big 3 will battle it out for Homestead for the championship along with the sport’s ultimate x-factor in Joey Logano.

We know the fans are not pulling for Logano but honestly he has not had the speed this year on the 1.5 mile tracks to cause grave concern. Logano’s two victories this year came at Talladega and most recently at Martinsville to secure his championship bid. Logano simply has not sustained the speed that we have seen from the likes of Harvick and Busch this year on the 1.5 mile tracks. The #22 has been very solid but just a tad off the mark. That is not to count the #22 out of the picture. If Logano is at the front on a late race restart, I can only imagine what he will do to win. I’m simply saying that he has to be the considered the underdog ahead of this weekend’s on-track activities.

For the Big 3, it is very interesting. If you go back to the start of 2016, Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick rank 1-2-3 on the 1.5 mile surfaces. Truex holds the most win thanks largely to last year’s dominant run. It’s also worth noting that Truex (2017), Busch (2015), and Harvick (2014) have all scored wins at Homestead in recent years to earn the Cup Series title. The question is who is best suited to get the job done this Sunday? I personally think the #78 team has faded in recent weeks. While certainly capable, the team seems to have already hit their peak. Meanwhile, Busch and Harvick are weekly overall favorites. With a gun to my head, I would have to give Harvick the edge over Busch. Harvick seems to have a touch more speed and I really like his driving style at Homestead. Harvick is really good at tracks with low grip that produces tire wear and he also does a good job rim-riding if groove demands it. Therefore, I think it’s the #4 team that pulls it out on Sunday.

Champion Prediction: Kevin Harvick