2018 Ford Ecoboost 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday November 18th, 3:03PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Sunday, NASCAR’s 2018 season will conclude with the running of the Ford Ecoboost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. We have already witnessed the crowning of two champions this weekend in both the Camping World Truck Series and Xfinity Series. Today another name will be etched into the history books as the champion of the highest level in motorsports via the Monster Energy Cup Series. As we saw in last tonight’s Xfinity Series Ford Ecoboost 300, it may take a victory to win the championship especially when you consider how strong the likes of Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, and Kevin Harvick have been all season. However, there is plausible arguments that another driver could spoil the championship hopefuls pursuit of victory. We discuss the possibilities and betting opportunities with our 2018 Ford Ecoboost 400 race picks!

The championship picture will come down to the highest finisher between Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, and Joey Logano. Throughout the year, we have praised the “Big 3” (#4,#78, and #18) for their dominance that includes 20 victories marking one of the most dominant seasons by any 3 drivers in the modern era. While nobody can discredit their success this season, I honestly think we will see a winner come from outside the Big 3 on Sunday. In practices throughout the weekend, Kevin Harvick has struggled. Martin Truex has been good but not great. Kyle Busch has been the best of the Big 3 and has a great history of success at Homestead. As a result, I consider Busch the biggest threat from the Big 3 on Sunday. However, I believe there are some strong drivers that also deserve serious consideration ahead of today’s green flag.

For starters, Joey Logano has been rock solid throughout every session this weekend and is in a perfect situation to pull out an underdog type of victory. On Saturday, Tyler Reddick who was considered the biggest underdog in the Xfinity Series, pulled out the victory in the Ford Ecoboost 300 to surprisingly win the Xfinity Series championship. Many people did not give Reddick enough credit going into the weekend and he drove one hell of a race finding speed inches away from the wall in outside groove. I feel like in some ways, Logano carries that same underdog type potential going into Sunday. Another driver that has a great opportunity to end a winless drought is Kyle Larson. In my opinion, the biggest surprise of the season is that Larson is winless going into Homestead. However, Homestead is also one of Larson’s favorite and better tracks. If there is any driver in the Cup Series that can mirror Reddick’s line in today’s Ford Ecoboost 300, it is Larson. The #42 has been strong throughout practices and these extreme low grip conditions play right into the strength of Larson’s driving style. Larson may be overvalued in terms of odds, based on the fact he has 0 wins on the year, but he will be a factor when the green flag waves.

I have stated throughout the weekend that we should not pay too much attention to practice speeds. After all, Homestead-Miami Speedway is like Atlanta or Darlington when it comes to tire wear and fall off in lap times. Therefore short run speed holds little significance. The good news is that Cup Series teams and drivers ran a ton of laps in Saturday’s practices which allowed us to see some of that long run potential. So I am going to reference practice observations to the guys that appeared strong on the long run and keep my focus on the drivers that perform best in these low grip/high tire wear conditions that we have seen throughout the year as my primary strategy.

If you are looking for a few drivers that could surprise on Sunday to bring dark horse potential or value in H2H match-ups, I believe Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr will be pleasant surprises. I am not sure if I would consider any of those guys strong candidates for the outright victory but I think they will race well. Stenhouse and Blaney do not have great resumes at Homestead so you may be able to steal some value in opportunistic match-ups. Blaney’s strength has been on the 1.5 mile tracks and he was among the drivers with the best overall average in practice. Of course there is some bias to overall averages but I still think Blaney and Stenhouse are sharp picks in most match-ups.

NASCAR Cup Series Draftkings Predictions at Homestead

For the final Draftkings race of the season, it is going to be a tough balance between top tier drivers and value from the lower tier options. If I had to rank the top drivers for today’s Ford Ecoboost 400, my top 5 would be: Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Martin Truex, and Kevin Harvick. Obviously you cannot take but two of the favorites or maybe 3 if you reach really low with flier options. Therefore, I feel like Larson (starting 11th) and Kyle Busch (starting 2nd) are the best options. If you trust the speed from the #22 shown in practices, you could pivot Logano into that rotation as well.

Cheaper salary options that look promising include William Byron, Chris Buescher, or perhaps Ty Dillon. I really like William Byron from the 28th starting position. While the #24 has not looked great in practices, Byron has the patience to manage his tires. Hopefully Byron can have a “Matt Kenseth” type of performance today and move forward. Both Buescher and Dillon are low salary options that have potential of pulling out top 20 finishes to salvage salary relief. If you have more salary to play with, I would also suggest Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney as two solid intermediate range options. Blaney looked really solid in practice and Elliott is simply a wheelman that typically runs well at Homestead. Both are worth the risk if you have the salary to afford them.

2018 Ford Ecoboost 400 Race Picks

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*Final*

Joey Logano +500 (1.5 units)
Brad Keselowski +1650 (1 unit) *early play
Jimmie Johnson +11000 (.25 unit) *early play
Alex Bowman +11000 (.25 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlays

Tyler Reddick +170 over Christopher Bell
Kyle Larson +425 wins Ford Ecoboost 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +1315

Kyle Busch +300 wins Ford Ecoboost 400
Ryan Blaney +115 over Aric Almirola
Risking 1.25 units to win: +950

H2H Match-ups and Props

Kyle Larson -130 over Kevin Harvick (3 units)
Kurt Busch +125 over Denny Hamlin (2 units) *early play
Jimmie Johnson +360 wins Group D (A. Dillon, Bowman, Suarez)
Total Cautions under 7.5 (-125) (4 units) click here for odds