2018 Ford Ecoboost 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday November 17th, 3:45PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Last night Brett Moffitt capped off his Cinderella season by winning the Ford Ecoboost 200 along with the Camping World Truck Series Championship. The reason I say Cinderella season is because at one point this year, Moffitt’s team did not have the sponsorship or funding to continue competing full-time. Thanks to a few lucky breaks and late opportunities, Moffitt not only received sufficient sponsorship to continue racing but most recently was able to place his name into NASCAR history as a series champion. Today another name will be sketched into the history books in the Xfinity Series as all eyes turn towards the running of the Ford Ecoboost 300. As many await the crowning of a champion, we take this time to discuss our expectations for today’s race and provide our 2018 Ford Ecoboost 300 race picks.

Today’s championship drama will surround Christopher Bell, Cole Custer, Daniel Hemric, and Tyler Reddick. It’s hard to avoid the championship drama especially when you have several drivers that have been running upfront on a near weekly basis. Christopher Bell has been the dominant Xfinity Series regular this season with 7 victories including last week’s clutch must-win at ISM Raceway. Cole Custer and Daniel Hemric have been frequent top 5 finishers. Custer scored a victory recently at Texas and is considered a solid threat this weekend because he is the defending winner of the Ford Ecoboost 300. Meanwhile, Daniel Hemric has been so close in so many races this year. Despite being winless, Hemric has run as well as anyone throughout the 2nd half of the year. Last but not least, Tyler Reddick earned his championship bid to Homestead on points. Reddick is considered the underdog but he has also been really solid on the 1.5 mile tracks. Reddick also won the opening race of the year at Daytona; so perhaps it is only fitting that he closes the year out with a win as well.

Before we dive into expectations, I think it is extremely important to understand the conditions at Homestead-Miami Speedway. As I explained in the Truck Series preview, Homestead’s surface has severely aged. The grip level is nearly extinct and tires wear extremely fast. The tire wear can be compared to tracks like Atlanta and Darlington which are among the most abrasive asphalt surfaces in the sport. Because of these conditions, there are many keys to success for getting around Homestead. The main focal points will be long run speed, tire management, and optimum pit strategy if necessary. The track can also be categorized as a driver’s racetrack because the driver will have a lot of input from behind the wheel. I often state that Homestead typically brings out the best “drivers” as opposed to the best equipment like we normally see most weekends in NASCAR.

As a result, I don’t think we should harp too heavily on practice speeds. While some practice observations can be a good indicator of speed, it does not always paint the best picture towards expectations. Lap times at Homestead are more important with each passing lap (long run speed). Therefore, practices can be misleading as it tends to provide more short run speed bias. With those things in mind, I will also say that I do not believe there were any surprises in practices on Friday. Christopher Bell and Cole Custer finished 1-2 on the 10 lap average charts in final practices. Both drivers were the top two favorites at the beginning of the week and nothing has happened to sway those expectations.

Towards the end of final practice, John Hunter Nemechek and Austin Cindric stood out from a lap time perspective. Cindric’s lap times were exceptionally strong although I still limit my expectations with the #22 driver. Cindric has not exactly been a “winning” driver this year but he has vastly improved throughout the season. In fact, Cindric has posted finishes of 3rd and 4th in recent weeks. Ahead of a difficult challenge tomorrow, Cindric has some promising upside and should be considering in most H2H betting matchups. For John Hunter Nemechek, I have a little more confidence towards his ability to steal a win on Saturday from the championship hopefuls. Nemechek scored a victory at Kansas and backed it up with a 4th place finish at Texas at the last two stops at 1.5 mile speedways. I have hinted several times that I believe the #42 might just be the best car in the series and John Hunter’s driving style is well suited for the low grip conditions. I definitely think Nemechek will have an opportunity to shine on Saturday as I expect the #42 to be strong on long runs.

NASCAR Xfinity Series Draftkings Predictions at Homestead

If you are looking to enhance your fantasy lineups this week, I don’t think anyone could go wrong with having Christopher Bell or Cole Custer in their lineups. I firmly believe those two guys will be battling for the victory by the end of 300 miles. Of course if you select either of the two, it is going to take away some salary space. Instead, I think having 4-5 intermediate range drivers may be more profitable. Austin Cindric is an extremely good bet from a value perspective. Daniel Hemric is another pivot option for the favorites. I will probably not consider Hemric for the win because his odds have been overvalued. However, he has been producing numerous quality finishes to return value in recent weeks.

For cheaper salary options, I would suggests the likes of Ross Chastain and Chase Briscoe. Both drivers are what I call “wheelmen” and will likely move forward from their starting spots assuming they do not overachieve in qualifying. Chastain posted one of his better finishes with the #4 team at Chicagoland back in June which has a lot of similarities towards Homestead. Meanwhile, Briscoe has been a consistent performer when he stays out of trouble. The problem is that he has been hit or miss in the luck department. If you want an even deeper options, let me suggest the #86 of Brandon Brown. Brown is a part-time driver but has show very promising speed in his short tenure. Therefore, consider the #86 a solid flier options in GPP formats.

2018 Ford Ecoboost 300 Race Picks

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*Final*

Cole Custer +275 (2 units)
John Hunter Nemechek +1000 (1.25 units)
Austin Cindric +1500 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Tyler Reddick +170 over Christopher Bell
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-ups

Cole Custer -175 over Daniel Hemric (2 units)
Chase Briscoe +100 over Ryan Reed (2 units)