2018 Daytona 500 Recap
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Today’s 60th running of the Daytona 500 unfolded predictably in carnage and chaos. For the 2nd straight year, NASCAR’s biggest event turned into a race of attrition. At the end of 500 miles, the caution flag had flown 8 times and nearly 75% of the field had been involved in some form of an accident. Among those incidents was a late last lap pass for the lead when Austin Dillon got into race leader Aric Almirola on the backstretch coming to the checkered flag. The move was a product of restrictor plate racing, a big run by Dillon, an attempted block by Almirola, and two drivers going after the biggest trophy in auto racing. At the end, Austin Dillon brought the #3 car back to victory lane on the 20th anniversary of Dale Earnhardt’s iconic win in the Daytona 500 in 1998.
Today’s race was a perfect example of why you should always limit your expectations when betting restrictor plate events. Luckily, I did have Austin Dillon +5500 (.5 unit) in my unofficial picks in our Daytona 500 predictions piece. I stated in the preview that I felt Dillon was a steal at +5500 from an odds standpoint based on his performance throughout the week. However if it were not for several incidents late in the race, Dillon would have never visited victory lane. Dillon was actually down a lap in the last 50 laps but several late race cautions allowed him to sneak back up into contention. Call it luck, call it whatever. It’s just reason to keep your risk small and your potential reward high on the plate tracks. I do not want to take up any time talking about my Daytona 500 luck. I just want to state some observations of what we learned from today’s Daytona 500 and what information will be usable going forward this season.
My first observation going forward is that the Fords will be the favorites at all of the plate races for the remainder of the season. Do not let the way the Daytona 500 ended fool you, the Fords were extremely impressive yet again. Ryan Blaney led the most laps and had the fastest car throughout all 500 miles. Both Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski had cars capable of winning. Former Daytona 500 winner Kurt Busch was in position for the victory in the closing laps and again Aric Almirola was leading on the white flag. At the end of the day, Ford drivers led 150 of the 207 laps and clearly had the advantage throughout all of Daytona Speedweeks. I spoke in detail how handling is becoming a bigger factor in these plate races with the lower aerodynamic changes to the spoiler and noses of these cars. Currently, Ford has the best setup to prevail at the plate races and that is a trend that will not go away for the remainder of the year.
Now let me be clear, going forward I do not expect the Fords to hold any advantage outside of the restrictor plate tracks. It may be too early to tell but I really believe their noses are giving them more stability in their plate setups. However that same nose will cost the Ford teams raw speed when we get to the traditional ovals starting next week in Atlanta. Perhaps we will have a better gauge of the Ford teams’ power in a few weeks but that has been my expectations all along this season.
Likewise, I also stated going into the year that Chevy teams would likely benefit from the changes to the 2018 Camaro this season. If you read my 2018 Monster Energy Cup Series Preview, then I predicted that the Chevy teams would benefit from the new Camaro this season. However, I also stated it would likely take some time to refine their setups in order to get the balance right for this new car. Judging from today’s Daytona 500 and this week’s festivities, I would say that prediction is right on point. The Chevy cars struggled the most out of any manufacturer in terms of handling this week. Several Chevrolet drivers complained about “loose” conditions all week and it did not take much air disruption to get those cars out of shape in the draft. I think we can expect Chevy teams to continue to struggle to some degree with handling in the weeks going forward but not to the degree we saw this week. Remember these teams have practiced at several of the ovals during the off-season and they will have a better grip on things by Charlotte. I still think it will take some time to perfect the handling on this new design but I also believe we will see the benefits by way of speed by next week.
Of course everything I have stated above is a calculated prediction. We will be able to make some stronger evaluations after Atlanta next week and have a higher degree of confidence in what we can expect in the weeks ahead. However, I do want to make one final prediction that I believe is very important for bettors. If you have not already seen or figured out, the Cup Series has turned into a level playing field in terms of competition. The wave of young talented drivers that is currently embarking on the Cup Series is the strongest wave of youth ever seen in NASCAR. As a result, there are so many promising drivers who can contend this season. Looking down the list of drivers in the Cup Series, I could say with confidence that it would not surprise me to see over 20 different drivers win races this year. I do not think it will actually happen but from a capability standpoint it definitely could. With that being said, it could be difficult for bettors this season and I think early odds will be very crucial as the season progresses. It will be critical for bettors to get their hands on early numbers and the best odds this season to ensure long term success. We will be here to help everyone along the way but I want to put that expectation in everyone’s head because I believe it will be vitally important for the 2018 season.
