2018 Daytona 500 Betting Predictions

2018 Daytona 500 Betting Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday February 18th, 3:05PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

All of the week’s festivities are behind us and the moment we have been anticipating is nearly here. On Sunday, the Monster Energy Cup Series will fire the engines for the 60th running of the Great American Race at Daytona International Speedway. NASCAR’s biggest race and its grandest venue meet again for the running of the Daytona 500. Tomorrow one driver’s dream of winning the biggest race in motorsports will become a reality and we are here to discuss the best betting options currently available. Take a look as we discuss the drivers to keep on your radar as we provide our 2018 Daytona 500 betting predictions!

Before I dive too deeply into my betting advice, remember this week’s race predictions are unofficial picks. I feel like the real handicapping begins at Atlanta and there is too much uncertainty at the beginning of the year to bet with confidence on plate races. While I do not release official picks this week, I usually have a little bit of personal action taking place just to spice things up. If you caught my preview for Saturday’s Xfinity Series PowerShares QQQ 300, then you may have noticed my dark horse pick in Tyler Reddick pulled out an exciting win earlier today at nearly 20-1 odds. It was a nice personal start to the year and I will have a small amount in play tomorrow again. Just understand that everyone should downsize their risk for these Daytona race because of the level of unpredictability.

One thing that I did learn from Saturday’s Xfinity Series race and this week’s events in the Cup Series is that more weight has been put into the drivers’ hands from a performance perspective. We have seen cars battle handling issues throughout the week, we have seen tires get slick late into runs, and we have seen side drafting play a bigger impact than usual under these aerodynamic packages. As a result we can make a couple of logical assumptions in that these nature of circumstances probably plays into the hands of the better plate racers like Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski.

Of course we can never predict these races at Daytona. Last year’s Daytona 500 turned into a race of attrition with just a hand full of cars remaining in one piece at the end of 500 miles. However if things remain rather tame, I do believe we will see the better drivers/cars stay at the front diminishing the chances of a true long shot to find victory lane. Along with the circumstances playing into the drivers’ hands and I also still believe the Fords are in great position to prevail based on their handling strengths. If you read my previews heading into the Clash and following the Clash, I have been big on the Fords since before the year even began. Needless to say, those premonitions have remained true as Fords have performed extremely well throughout Daytona Speedweeks.

As a result I believe we have to give strong consideration to guys like Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, and even last year’s Daytona 500 winner Kurt Busch. I have personally been surprised with how consistently strong Kurt Busch has been throughout Daytona Speedweeks as the #41 team is clearly out to prove that last year’s win was not a fluke. The elder Busch is currently receiving 25-1 odds for the repeat win in the 500. While repeat winners are rare in NASCAR’s biggest race, the odds are generous based on Busch’s performance thus far. Among the remainder of the Fords, I also believe Ryan Blaney is a sharp pick. I say sharp because Blaney’s odds are down to 10-1 which is among the favorites. Prior to the week, Blaney was nearly 30-1 at one point but he is another driver that has performed extremely well throughout the week including a win in the opening duel race on Thursday. I think the lower price tag will probably scare some people away from backing the #12 but he may just have the fastest car in the field. Of course it is always important to get the best number and for those that got Blaney early at nearly 30-1 odds, you have to give yourself a big pat on the back.

In regards to the rest of the field, I think everyone can agree that Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski are the two best plate racers in the business. I do not need to give a nod to either driver or talk you out of taking either as well. Hamlin is obviously the better option from an odds standpoint but it is hard to ignore how great Keselowski has been on plate tracks in recent years. Just look at last Sunday’s win in the Advance Auto Parts Clash to see why. Unfortunately it would be hard to take both Hamlin and Keselowski on your betting roster while maintaining a solid ROI. When it comes to plate racing, you should typically aim for at least a 3-1 ROI margin on any of your bets to outweigh the risk that accompanies plate racing. Again this is just my best personal long term strategy. Simply put, you can’t throw heavy risk/low reward strategies at these races and expect to win long term.

In order to sustain a strong ROI margin, we have to take a look at some intermediate long shots. I know I said previously that I believe this year’s circumstances does not present as great an opportunity for a big long shot driver to win but I am talking about the guys in the intermediate range. Among those options, I mentioned Kurt Busch is a good one earlier at 25-1. Chase Elliott is a borderline favorite but still has some value at just over 13-1. I also would not rule out guys like Kyle Larson (+1650) and Erik Jones (+2750)? Larson does not have a decorated restrictor plate background but has the aggressiveness to keep the #42 at the front of the field. Larson is a checkers or wreckers type of option. I would not encourage putting him in your fantasy lineups but a flier at nearly 17-1 odds in the betting realm is not out of the question based on his aggressiveness and talent.

Ironically, Erik Jones is the exact opposite style of driver that I am keeping on my radar. I have watched Jones in many plate races and he just seems to find a way to hang around. I think to put out the victory, Jones will need to be more aggressive at the end of these races. However, I can see his driving style putting him in position late if he can avoid trouble. Of course surviving trouble will be the ultimate battle all of these drivers face. Based on the tough handling conditions witnessed throughout the week, I am fully expecting to see some wrecks as things get hairy in the draft. The question is how many will we have and how many innocent victims will be claimed in the mayhem?

*Also for the record, I don’t necessarily disbelieve in any other drivers chances among the favorites. Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr, and Jimmie Johnson are undeniably among the best drivers in the Cup Series and it would not shock me to see either of those drivers pull out a win. It just boils down to I don’t think you have a strong argument for their chances based on what I have seen thus far and based on their current odds.

Of course we can never predict the mayhem these race but we can select a few drivers with higher odds to add homerun value to our lineups. For the drivers that may fill the homerun narrative, let me suggest Darrell Wallace Jr +4500 and Austin Dillon +5500. I thought Austin Dillon was very strong throughout Daytona Speedweeks and he has a strong track record at Daytona with 5 finishes in the top 10 in his last 7 starts. At 55-1 odds, Dillon is a complete steal. Likewise, I think a gamble could be applied to Darrell Wallace Jr. I am a fan of Wallace so I maybe a little biased but I think he has enormous potential to capitalize in this #43 seat in 2018. He finished 3rd in the opening Duel Race on Thursday and is another drive that just fills the card with “value.”

As always, good luck to everyone that decides to put some action on the Daytona 500. I don’t discourage anyone from betting this race as it is truly one of the most exciting races of the year. Just make sure to keep value in your lineups to make it most profitable if you are able to cash a winning ticket. Remember our official race picks will kick off next week at Atlanta where the real handicapping begins. We will be moving to a subscription based service this year with race picks. Full access to our race previews and predictions will carry a subscription charge of $10 per month. With this access, you will also be added to our mailing list where we will send out early picks in the week to ensure you are getting the best odds of the week. We will continue to provide free content throughout the week and free content within our forums. Cheers to everyone as we anticipate another big season!

If you are looking for a new sportsbook for NASCAR betting this season, then click here to get signed up with Bovada! Bovada has some of the best prop bets for NASCAR and I will be using several of them for this year’s plays.

2018 Unofficial Daytona 500 Race Picks

Ryan Blaney +1000 (1 unit) – one of the fastest cars of the week, won the Duel #1, starting 3rd
Denny Hamlin +1100 (1 unit) – among the best plate racers in the Cup Series, former Daytona 500 winner, starting 2nd
Kurt Busch +2250 (.75 unit) – defending Daytona 500 winner, strong all week, should be among the favorites, starting 11th
Erik Jones +2750 (.75 unit) – another value play, has been solid all week, will need to step up the aggression late
Darrell Wallace Jr +4500 (.5 unit) – 3rd in Duel 1, opportunistic driver with aggression to make things happen given the opportunity, will need help but has solid value
Austin Dillon +5500 (.5 unit) – 5 top 10 finishes in last 7 Daytona starts, finished 6th in Duel 2, starting 14th, solid value play

Prop Bet

Prop bet courtesy of Bovada!

Ryan Blaney +225 wins Group D over Bowman, Johnson, and McMurray (2 units)