2017 Zippo 200 Race Predictions

2017 Zippo 200 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday August 5th, 2:18PM (EST) at Watkins Glen International
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

For the first time this season, the Xfinity Series has a chance to showcase road course racing when the green flag waves for the Zippo 200 at Watkins Glen International. Tomorrow’s race will feature the 1st of 3 different road course races over the next 4 weeks in the Xfinity Series. Therefore, get use to this style of racing over the next few weeks and take note of the drivers that perform well for future betting opportunities. In the essence of tomorrow’s Zippo 200, we have one of the most talented lineups of the entire season participating in this event including numerous Cup Series stars like Paul Menard, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, Erik Jones, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and Brad Keselowski. Find out who we think has the best chance to take home the checkered flag as we present our 2017 Zippo 200 race predictions!

With the plethora of talent participating in tomorrow’s race, it really does not feel like an Xfinity Series race but rather a Cup Series prelude to Sunday’s I love New York 355 which will also be held at the Glen. On typical weeks, we may have 2-3 Cup Series drivers participating in an Xfinity Series event. Instead, we will have 7 Cup Series drivers participating tomorrow and the majority of those guys are among the best drivers in the sport. Ironically, NASCAR just released their 2018 participation rules earlier this week which will limit the amount of starts from Cup Series drivers in NASCAR’s lower series. Even though the participants for tomorrow’s Zippo 200 were planned well in advance to that announcement, you can definitely see the irony in the timing of the announcement and the amount of Cup Series drivers suiting up for tomorrow’s race.

Tomorrow we really have the best of the best participating from the Cup Series. Everyone racing tomorrow is more than capable of winning and I think that puts a big handicap on the Xfinity Series regulars.Even Paul Menard who most would consider the least threatening Cup Series driver, finished 2nd in this race a year ago and is coming off the heels of a near win at Indianapolis in his last Xfinity Series start. Meanwhile, Joey Logano has won the last two Xfinity Series races at the Glen and promises to be one of the main threats again tomorrow. I would personally list Logano slightly ahead of both Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski as the biggest threats to win the Zippo 200 judging from practices, momentum, track history, and other factors.

Those 3 drivers were the top 3 fastest cars in both practices earlier today and each have documented success at the Glen. Interestingly, Watkins Glen is one of the very few tracks on the Xfinity Series schedule where Kyle Busch has failed to win a race. Now I point out that fact but that is not to say Busch struggles at Watkins Glen. In reality, he is one of the best at the Glen owning the best average finish over the last 10 races in the Cup Series including two wins. For whatever reason, Busch has not been able to seal the deal in the Xfinity Series to this point. Tomorrow will be another great opportunity obviously but he appears to be a touch behind the Team Penske cars of Keselowski and Logano who have won 3 of the last 4 at the Glen.

From a betting standpoint, it is going to be hard to bet this race considering the top 3 will have low odds and you are not going to get great numbers on guys like Harvick, Jones, and Larson. As a result, you may have to lower your risk for the winning bets for this race and look to exploit betting lines via H2H matchups for the most sensible return. I feel like tomorrow’s race is an excellent opportunity to exploit some H2H matchups before books catch up to some of the Xfinity Series driver’s skills on road courses. For example, one driver that I would fade would be William Byron who has become the most popular Xfinity Series full-time driver in the last several weeks.

Byron did not impress in last year’s Truck Series race in Bowmanville in his first road course race and he has been very unimpressive thus far through practices. He does not have experience on these types of tracks nor has shown the unique skill to deserve the value he has been given this week based on his performances on the ovals. I am using Byron as an example of a driver that could be exploited in matchup situations but it still comes down to who is paired against him. However, the point is that there are plenty of similar situations to drivers who are overvalued or undervalued for this race because books do not understand driver’s true road course skills. As a result, I believe there are some favorable H2H matchups as we enter Saturday’s 200 mile race.

If you are going to try to find exploitable matchups, then you are likely going to find the best value in the Xfinity Series drivers. The Cup Series drivers have a lot more experience and talent. Not to mention, they will be paired against each other. I feel like guys like Matt Tift and Brandon Jones can also be considered strong fades from my research. Like Byron, Tift has very little road course experience which I suspect does not suit his driving style. Brandon Jones has 4 road course starts in the Xfinity Series and his best finish is 13th. Meanwhile guys like Elliott Sadler, Justin Allgaier, and even Cole Custer have some upside value that may be useful given the right matchup. Be sure to check back with us on Saturday as we update our official plays after analyzing all update odds!

2017 Zippo’s 200 Race Predictions

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Brad Keselowski +450 (1.5 units)
Kyle Larson +950 (1 unit)

H2H Matchups

Cole Custer -140 over Daniel Hemric (2 units)
Kyle Larson -110 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)