2017 Virginia 529 College Savings 250 Race Predictions

2017 Virginia 529 College Savings 250 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Friday September 8th, 7:45PM (EST) at Richmond International Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Last week Cup Series stars dominated the Sport Clips Haircuts VFW 200 at Darlington Raceway while providing one of the most exciting finishes of the season between Joey Logano and eventual race winner Denny Hamlin. Tonight the series moves to Richmond International Raceway and the running of the Virginia 529 College Savings 250. Once again the storyline and expectations surround a vast group of Cup Series veterans that includes Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Paul Menard, Ty Dillon, and even Dale Earnhardt Jr. We take this time to provide a full preview of tonight’s 250 laps of racing at Richmond and provide our 2017 Virginia 529 College Savings 250 race predictions!

Obviously the Cup Series drivers will be the overwhelming favorites tonight and I am mainly referring to Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski. Busch and Keselowski have combined for 9 Richmond wins in the Xfinity Series with Busch owning 6 of those trophies. Not only are they arguably the best two drivers at Richmond participating in tonight’s event but they are also behind two of the best cars in the #18 and #22. Those same two cars provided the exciting finish I alluded to earlier last week at Darlington with Hamlin and Logano in the driver seats. Therefore, there is no reason not to expect both drivers to run upfront again this evening while contending for a victory.

While most would agree that Busch and Keselowski should be the favorites, practice speeds indicated a wide array of disparity earlier today. In fact, Busch was not even in the top 10 in practice speeds and was only 13th in 10 lap averages which is very uncommon from the driver that leads the Xfinity Series in all-time wins. Practice speeds were a bit all over the place which may or may not be too surprising. The Xfinity Series does allow drivers to use old or new tires which can greatly affect speeds. Therefore, practice speeds are not the most reliable source of handicapping. I also realize that track conditions will be different this evening but track temperature will be relative from this morning to this evening. With that being said, I do believe that practice speeds hinted at a few predictions that I had already put together going into the week that gives me hope we could see some drivers challenge Busch and Keselowski for the victory.

If you consider Busch’s overwhelming odds and lackluster practice speeds, I find it hard to back the #18 from an ROI standpoint. Keselowski was not dominate in practices either but I would say that he looked better than the #18 and his odds are nearly 3 times as valuable as Busch. I think you have to keep these things in mind when compiling a better roster to ensure you are getting the best return on your selections. Outside of Busch and Keselowski, I have been patiently waiting to see the speed that the JR Motorsports cars could show this weekend. If you have not noticed this season, JR Motorsports cars typically either perform well as a team or struggle as a team. We have rarely seen one driver excel while others struggled or vice versa. Therefore, I wanted to see if those cars showed some speed off the hauler because I really like both Justin Allgaier and Dale Earnhardt Jr’s chances heading into tonight’s event. Fortunately, both guys looked good in practice which vaults their value. Allgaier has performed extremely well on all of the short tracks this season especially the tracks that resemble closely to Richmond like Phoenix and Iowa. Allgaier’s only win of the season came earlier this year at Phoenix and he also posted a runner-up finish in the spring race at Richmond. Earlier today Allgaier looked really good in race trim and posted the best 10 lap average of the session. Consider Allgaier’s current odds, I think you have to consider the #7 as an enticing selection because he definitely knows how to get around these Richmond style layouts.

For those wondering why I would be throwing Dale Earnhardt Jr’s name into the mix, let me explain. I know Earnhardt is having a nightmare season in the Cup Series and most betting scenarios for JR would come at the restrictor plate tracks. However, Earnhard’ts resume at Richmond in the Xfinity Series is phenomenal. In fact, Junior has 4 victories in just 6 starts and has won his last 3 starts which includes most recently last year’s spring race. I thought Earnhardt also showed solid speed in practices which highlights my JR Motorsports theory with Allgaier also showing speed. Let’s also not forget the success that Earnhardt has sustained at Richmond in the Cup Series throughout his career that includes 3 wins. Therefore despite all clouds of doubt, I believe Earnhardt can contend for a victory in this race this evening and his current odds are generous.

For the rest of the field, I am not sure that I find much confidence in any other picks for the outright victory. Despite the JGR cars having a lackluster practice, I still believe Christopher Bell will run well this evening. I thought Bell was phenomenal at Iowa before he was caught up in a wreck while leading the race. Iowa Speedway was designed by Rusty Wallace in similarity to Richmond. Therefore while Bell may not have shown overwhelming speed in sessions, I still expect him to race well this evening. I believe Bell and Daniel Hemric may hold some upside in H2H situations. I think Hemric is a good pick because he will likely not qualify well because the RCR cars single car speed has not been good all season. However, Hemric is another guy that typically performs well at these layouts and even posted a 3rd place finish in the spring. I obviously do not expect him to run that well tonight but a top 10 is within reach. Also, I would not overlook Ty Dillon completely in H2H situations. Dillon has a pretty solid Richmond resume and typically flies under the radar. If you can find a lower-tier matchup, I would give the younger Dillon strong consideration as well.

2017 Virginia 529 College Savings 250 Race Predictions

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Brad Keselowski +450 (1.5 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1250 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1650 (1 unit)

H2H Matchups

Justin Allgaier -115 over Elliott Sadler (3 units)
Christopher Bell -140 over Matt Tift (2 units)
Ty Dillon -115 over Matt Tift (2 units)