2017 ToyotaCare 250 Race Picks

2017 ToyotaCare 250 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday April 29th, 1:16PM (EST) at Richmond International Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

After an exciting past weekend at Bristol, NASCAR returns for more short track racing this weekend at Richmond International Raceway. The action will kick off tomorrow when the Xfinity Series drops the green flag for the ToyotaCare 250 which will also serve as the 3rd Dash 4 Cash event. With this year’s Dash 4 Cash rules, no drivers with more than 5 years Cup Series experience can compete. Therefore the only Cup Series drivers participating tomorrow are among NASCAR’s young guns in the form of Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon, and Ryan Blaney who will be the favorites to win the ToyotaCare 250. However, we feel that some of the Xfinity Series regulars could be poised to make this race very interesting. Find out our thoughts and 2017 ToyotaCare 250 race picks!

One of the first facts that stands out tomorrow is that there are not any prior Richmond winners from the Xfinity Series competing in the ToyotaCare250. Perhaps the rules for the Dash 4 Cash eligibility prevented some of the more experienced guys from competing. However, it is very rare for an Xfinity Series event to not have a prior winner throughout the entire field. With that being said, obviously the Cup Series guys will be the leading favorites to capture the checkered flag. As expected, Kyle Larson is the overall favorite based on pure talent. Larson has been the best driver in NASCAR this year from the Cup Series to the Xfinity Series. In his prior 4 starts this year in the Xfinity Series, he has finished 3rd (Atlanta), 2nd (Las Vegas), 1st (Fontana), and 7th last week at Bristol. Despite the 7th place finish last week, Larson still led a race high 180 laps which just continues to show that he has been the guy to beat so far this year in either series.

Earlier today, Larson stood out as the car to beat again as expected. He was 2nd in final practice and led all drivers in 5/10/15 lap averages. However before anyone chalks this as a win for Larson, it is worth noting that Larson was never really happy with the race car despite the lap speed. More importantly he has never been that “great” at Richmond with a mere best 4th place finish in his prior 4 starts in the Xfinity Series. He has openly admitted that Richmond does not fit his driving style and has been a tough track for him to get accustomed to. Therefore while Larson is obviously the #1 guy to beat tomorrow, it would not be too surprising if he did not win this race based off prior history at Richmond.

If Larson cannot get the job done, it really opens up a plethora of possibilities. It would appear that Blaney and Austin Dillon would be favorites behind Larson. However, neither of those drivers have performed well at Richmond in the past nor did they show a ton of speed in practices on Friday. Both drivers were outside the top 10 in single lap speed and were 5th and 6th respetively in 10 lap averages. Dillon has a career best 5th place finish at Richmond in 9 starts in the Xfinity Series while Blaney has just 1 top 5 in 4 starts. In Blaney’s defense, he has not raced at Richmond since 2014 and he is obviously a better driver at this point in his career. However, that #22 car still has not won since the 2015 season. Logano got a win in the #12 car earlier this year for Team Penske but the #22 remains winless in the last 42 races.

As a result, I am really starting to like several of the Xfinity Series regulars in this race. Justin Allgaier won at Phoenix and has a great resume at Richmond. Allgaier posted the 2nd fastest 10 lap average in final practice behind Larson. William Byron and Cole Custer have shown speed throughout both practices as well. Byron’s season best finish of 4th was also at Phoenix which has a lot of similarities to Richmond. I think both Allgaier and Byron are excellent medium range size long shots for tomorrow’s race.

If we are speaking of practice speed, it is worth noting that Kyle Benjamin posted the fastest lap in final practice and also the 3rd best 10 lap average. If you have never heard of Benjamin, don’t worry because tomorrow will be his first start in the Xfinity Series. Benjamin is in the #20 car for JGR so it is not any surprise that the car is fast but he was really impressive nevertheless in his first laps behind the wheel. Benjamin has had success in everything he has driven from late models to the NASCAR K&N Series. Surely, I would not pick him to win in his first race but I also think he is an excellent talent that is worthy of your attention.

One final name I will throw out to everyone is Ty Dillon. I have Dillon listed at the top of my dark horse list for several reasons. He has historically run well at Richmond with top 10 finishes in his last 5 starts. If you remember back to this race last year, he was knocking on Dale Jr’s bumper in the final laps for the win. The younger Dillon settled for a runner-up position in last year’s ToyotaCare 250. However, I think he has been one of the most consistent cars since unloading early Friday. Dillon was really happy with the #3 car and I would not be surprised if he is the “surprise” story when the green flag drops on Saturday.

2017 ToyotaCare 250 Race Picks

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Justin Allgaier +1000 (1 unit)
Ty Dillon +1350 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Larson +170 wins ToyotaCare 250
Slot 2 – Open for Toyota Owners 400
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Matchups and Props

William Byron +100 over Austin Dillon (2 units)
Justin Allgaier -135 over Elliott Sadler (2 units)
Ty Dillon -240 over Darrell Wallace Jr (2 units)