2017 Toyota Tundra 250 Race Picks
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Friday May 12th, 8:30PM (EST) at Kansas Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
For the first time in 6 weeks, the Camping World Truck Series returns to action with the running of the Toyota Tundra 250 at Kansas Speedway. After a long break, the Truck Series will accompany the Monster Energy Cup Series at Kansas Speedway for our first night races of the season. Back at Martinsville in early April, Cup Series driver Chase Elliott earned his 2nd Truck Series victory over Johnny Sauter and Christopher Bell. Tonight another Cup Series veteran in Kyle Busch is the overwhelming favorite to visit victory lane. Find out our thoughts as we break down tonight’s race and provide our 2017 Toyota Tundra 250 race picks!
I believe it is safe to say by now that everyone understands that Kyle Busch has been phenomenal in NASCAR’s lower series. Rowdy has 87 wins in the Xfinity Series and 46 victories in the Camping World Truck Series. Busch has scored 16 wins in his last 30 starts in the Truck Series including a 2014 victory at Kansas. If Busch is not strong enough by pure talent along, his Kyle Busch Motorsports Trucks have been the class of the Truck Series for several years now. Therefore, it is easy to see why Busch is the overwhelming favorite to win tonight’s Toyota Tundra 250.
From an odds standpoint, it is going to be hard to back Busch from a betting standpoint at less than even money. You can place a large wager on Busch with several betting units but that strategy typically limits you from taking additional drivers. Not to mention it lowers your overall ROI. The strategy I like taking is adding Busch to the start of a parlay and combining that with a potential play for tomorrow’s Go Bowling 400. Therefore you can keep your overall units down for tonight’s race, you can take additional drivers, and add more ROI to both races between the Xfinity and Cup Series. If you do not have a bookie that allows open parlays, then I highly suggest signing up with 5Dimes!
Another reason I like the parlay strategy is because you may not lose a ton of money off misfortune. If you look back at the Atlanta race, Busch was also a heavy favorite in that race but cut a tire on a late race restart after losing the lead in the pits. Luckily in that race we had just a 1 unit open parlay on Busch to win the race. Because we used that strategy, we were also able to take other drivers like Christopher Bell (+800) who ended up winning the race. The good news about having heavy favorites in these lower series races is that you can usually get pretty decent odds on the rest of the field. Therefore, it is always worth exploring additional drivers and the value they bring to your lineup.
I know many will remember Busch’s cut tire at Atlanta as the turning point in the race. However, Bell actually had the best truck for the majority of the race and consistently outrun Busch through the opening two stages to lead a race high 99 laps. Matt Crafton also run very well in that race and was able to hang with the KBM Trucks. Keep in mind, Crafton has finished no worse than 2nd in the last 4 races here at Kansas (2 wins) as this is one of his best tracks. Therefore, I doubt we are going to see any driver run away with tonight’s race especially with this relatively new stage racing format.
From yesterday’s practice sessions, both Christopher Bell and Matt Crafton stood out amongst the competition which compares to what we saw back at Atlanta. I thought Bell was the best of all trucks which is good indicator considering we jumped on Bell -130 over Timothy Peters early in the week if you follow our forums. Behind Bell and Crafton, I believe Johnny Sauter has some dark horse potential. For some reason, Sauter is never a driver that gets a lot of attention but he consistently puts himself in position for victories. Sauter also ran well back at Atlanta with a 3rd place finish and backed it up with a runner-up showing at Martinsville. Therefore, I believe he will be a factor again tonight and may just be worthy of the upset.
Outside of those top 3-4 guys, I am not sure I feel confident in many other driver’s chances to win the race. However, I am interested to see if guys like Noah Gragson and Grant Enfinger can run well after a pair of solid practices on Thursday. Enfinger scored a surprising win at Talladega last year that earned him additional seat time for 2017. While many would chalk victory towards a product of restrictor plate racing, Enfinger had several additional quality runs at places like Atlanta, Michigan, and Chicago. After an 8th place finish at Atlanta, I think Enfinger could be a valuable H2H type play in lower tier matchups if offered. Also, keep an eye on Ben Rhodes for similar matchup situations. Rhodes was really strong back at Atlanta and I think he is another guy with some upside for tonight’s event.
2017 Toyota Tundra 250 Race Picks
*More plays to come closer to race time
Johnny Sauter +750 (1.25 units)
Two Team Parlay
Christopher Bell +225 wins Toyota Tundra 250
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD
H2H Matchups and Props
Christopher Bell -130 over Timothy Peters (4 units) *early forums play
Ben Rhodes -105 over Regan Smith (3 units) *early forums play
