2017 Toyota Save Mart 350 Race Predictions

2017 Toyota Save Mart 350 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday June 25th, 3:20PM (EST) at Sonoma Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Monster Energy Cup Series will get their first taste of road course racing this season when the green flag waves for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. In recent years, road course racing has gained some popularity amongst NASCAR fans. So much so that even Charlotte Motor Speedway will attempt to add some road course excitement next year when they introduce the “ROVAL” which is a combination of their 1.5 mile oval and infield road course. While Charlotte’s experiment to combine both oval and road course racing remains to be seen, today all eyes will be on Sonoma Raceway for true road course racing action. As we get ready for a fun afternoon, we take this time to provide our 2017 Toyota Save Mart 350 race predictions!

Any time a road course race shows up on the NASCAR schedule, fans will hear the words “road course driver” or “road course ringer.” The term simply implies to certain drivers strengths on the road course races which may be a result of some type of open wheel background. The term “ringer” implies to drivers that are not normal NASCAR drivers but participate in road course races. There will be a few of those guys participating today in the likes of Tommy Regan, Kevin O’Connell, Boris Said, Alon Day, Josh Bilicki, and Billy Johnson. However in reality, none of these guys have a true shot to win today’s race despite their talent on these types of road course layouts. The last true road course ringer to win a race at the Cup Series level was Mark Donohue back in 1973 at Riverside.

There have been some full-time NASCAR drivers, with strong open wheel backgrounds, that have scored surprise wins on the road course races in recent years. The names Robby Gordon, Juan Pablo Montoya, and most recently AJ Allmendinger are the most notable winners that fall within that group. Still for the most part, these races are often won by the drivers that are performing well and the drivers who have embraced the challenge of road course racing. So it may not be too surprising to learn that many of the drivers that have excelled throughout the season have continued to shine thus far this weekend. I am specifically speaking towards Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex Jr.

Busch does not have any wins this season but there have been few drivers that have shown as much speed as the #18 in the last several weeks. More importantly Busch is one of the better drivers in the series at the road course races due to his pure raw talent behind the wheel. Rowdy owns 2 Sonoma victories and has shown great speed off the truck yet again this week. Larson and Truex have been the two best cars throughout the entire season. Both drivers have two victories and have consistently been frontrunners on a weekly basis.

Larson scored his 2nd victory last week at Michigan and has rolled into Sonoma with a lot of momentum. On Friday Larson laid down the fastest lap in Happy Hour and then put the #42 on the pole on Saturday. Therefore, he has to be considered one of the overall favorites yet again which is likely not going to change any time soon. Larson is starting to appear to be the best driving talent in the series and it is very evident this aero package suits him perfectly. Truex has a 2013 Sonoma win to his resume which proves that he can get around these road course races. If his speed this season and Sonoma history does not impress you alone, the #78 was in the top 3 in both of Friday’s practices and qualified P3. Considering the history factor, I would actually put the #78 over the #42 if I had to rank them going into this afternoon’s race. Either way, both will likely be contenders for the victory.

The unique thing about road course racing is that you have history and then you have the present. There are several drivers that have very strong historical resumes at the road course races. For Sonoma, you would have a hard time finding better candidates than Clint Bowyer, Kurt Busch, and Jimmie Johnson over the last 10 races. Johnson owns the best average finishing position over the last 10 races at Sonoma with an 8.4 average showing which includes a 2010 victory.

I personally believe that Bowyer’s stats during that same stretch are even more impressive as he has finished in the top 10 in 8 of the last 10 races which includes years that he was in pretty bad equipment. It is going to be very interesting to see what Bowyer can do behind the wheel of the #14 car because this is the first time in several years that he has been in a car that is capable of winning. For that reason, I jumped on Bowyer early in the week at openers at +1150 which is an excellent price considering the speed the #14 has shown this week. I always stress the importance of getting the best number and Bowyer is currently listed at 8-1. If you are unable to get early odds, then I encourage you to visit 5Dimes.

In the topic of pure history, I would also list guys like Kasey Kahne and Dale Earnhardt Jr into that category for potential plays in H2H situations. Kahne has racked up 4 straight top 10 finishes at Sonoma Raceway. Possibly even more surprising is that Dale Earnhardt Jr has also been solid in recent trips to Sonoma with finishes of 3rd, 7th, and 11th in his last 3 starts. Earnhardt has actually looked great throughout practices this weekend finishing in the top 5 in both sessions. Junior also qualified in the 10th position which is a lot better than he normally qualifies.

In fact outside of the restrictor plate races, it is just the 2nd time this season that Earnhardt will start inside the top 10. As much bad luck and in some cases bad effort that we have seen out of Earnhardt this season, I still find myself thinking he is in position for a quality run. If you remember, I picked Earnhardt to come out of his slump and contend for a top 10 last week. The #88 delivered with a 9th place finish at Michigan. I think he could better that performance later today. Either way both Dale Jr and Kahne are excellent matchup picks because neither driver is notorious for the road course skills. Therefore, they will be under valued.

If you are looking for an even bigger sleeper in H2H situations or perhaps fantasy purposes, then I would also consider Michael McDowell. The #95 team needs to be given some kudos for their performance this season as they have improved greatly from their 2016 campaign. McDowell is one of those excellent road course talents and with the speed we have seen from this team in recent weeks; I believe McDowell could showcase his talent a lot more later today now that he has a car that is equal to his talent.

Lastly before I can conclude my thoughts, it would be negligent of me to leave off the names of AJ Allmendinger, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick in the folds of consideration. Obviously Allmendinger is one of the best drivers in the series at the road course races and he finally broke through with his 1st victory at Watkins Glen in 2014. With that being said, I believe Allmendinger gets a little too much attention at the road course events. His talent is undeniable but he often falls to expectations. In fact, Allmendinger’s 20.9 average finishing position at Sonoma in the last 10 races is pretty pathetic.

I personally would rather dodge Allmendinger at every road course race just because his odds are always overvalued. If he beats you, then you just have to accept the loss because there is never any value in taking him. Meanwhile, guys like Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin have just as much of a chance to win with better odds. I mentioned earlier that you have history and then you have the present when it comes to road course racing. When we consider the “present”, Denny Hamlin should be the guy that comes to mind. Hamlin had a breakout year on the road courses in 2016 winning at Watkins Glen and finishing 2nd at Sonoma. In actuality, Hamlin should have won at Sonoma but he let Tony Stewart get to his bumper on the final turn and Smokes move him to get the victory.

Still, Hamlin figured something out at these tracks last year and I would be hesitant to completely forget about him going into today’s race especially at pretty decent odds. I actually still believe the #11 is a pretty solid dark horse pick along with the #4 of Kevin Harvick. Harvick does not have any wins at Sonoma to boost his stock but he has been close several times. Happy has finished 4th and 6th in his last 2 Sonoma starts and he is another guy that has been showing good speed on a weekly basis. Unfortunately for me, Harvick’s odds are not as enticing as some of the others when I calculate the risk/reward possibilities despite the fact I like what I have seen from the #4 team heading into today’s race.

2017 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Race Predictions

Start betting on today’s race and take advantage of numerous props, H2H matchups, and more with Bovada!

Clint Bowyer +1150 (1.25 units): 2012 winner, finished top 5 in 6 of 11 career starts at Sonoma, starting 13th
Denny Hamlin +1250 (1 unit): 2016 Watkins Glen winner and 2nd at Sonoma, 2nd in practice 1
Kurt Busch +1500 (1 unit): 2011 winner, finishes top 5 in 4 of last 6 starts at Sonoma, starting 17th

Two Team Parlay

Martin Truex Jr +375 wins Toyota/Save Mart 350
Kasey Kahne -130 over Ryan Newman
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1110

H2H Matchups and Props

Daniel Suarez -135 over Erik Jones (2 units)
Kasey Kahne -130 over Ryan Newman (2 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr +380 wins Group C (Logano, Elliott, Keselowski, Blaney)