2017 Toyota Owners 400 Race Picks

2017 Toyota Owners 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday April 30th, 2:14PM (EST) at Richmond International Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Short track racing returns to the Monster Energy Cup Series again tomorrow with the running of the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Last week Jimmie Johnson scored a somewhat surprising victory at Bristol Motor Speedway in just his 2nd victory at Thunder Valley. The win was Johnson’s 2nd victory in a row going back to Texas and tomorrow he will have the opportunity to go back to back to back at Richmond where he is a 3-time winner. If Johnson accomplishes the feat, it will mark the 3rd time in his career he has won 3 consecutive races which would tie Rusty Wallace and Jeff Gordon for the most all-time. Find out if we expect the #48 to make history and the rest of our thoughts as we provide our 2017 Toyota Owners 400 race picks!

While we did not give Johnson much attention last week due primarily because he has never been that great at Bristol, I do not want to look past the 48’s chances this week. Johnson is a 3-time winner at Richmond and the #48 team is notorious for putting together winning streaks. Earlier today, crew chief Chad Knaus was able to get the car dialed into Johnson’s liking which could be trouble for the rest of the field. However, there were a number of fast guys that stood out among the lead pack which means there will be several drivers worth consideration for tomorrow’s race.

Among that lead pack of drivers, I would put Kyle Busch right in the thick of tomorrow’s hunt. Busch has 4 wins which is the most among active drivers ahead of Hamlin, Harvick, Earnhardt, and Johnson who all have 3 Richmond victories. Earlier today in final practice, Busch appeared to have the best car on long runs. He led all drivers in 30 lap averages which is very important considering Richmond’s tendency for long green runs. Also, Richmond’s surface has lost a lot of grip in recent years making the drive off the corner very difficult as the run progresses. If you cannot hook up the rear tires after 10-20 laps, you are going to have a long day. Fortunately, Busch looked like he had a car that was really good and he will be a favorite for tomorrow’s event. Now I will be the first to admit that I had Busch as my top driver last week at Bristol and things did not pan out. However, I like his chances even more for this week.

Busch was not the only guy that was impressive on the stopwatch earlier today. I thought Martin Truex Jr, Denny Hamlin, and Matt Kenseth were right there with the #18 in overall speed. Despite winning the pole for tomorrow’s race, I feel like Kenseth is still flying under the radar. Kenseth has not had a great season up to this point in the year but he did rally for a 4th place finish last week at Bristol. Kenseth also owns 2 victories at Richmond so the history is there. I think his practices on Saturday were very strong but I have not seen much talk on the #20 which could be a good thing. One thing for sure is that I expect the #20 to lead several laps after the green flag drops tomorrow and I would not be surprised if he hangs around the front all afternoon.

The two drivers that I expect to really shine tomorrow are the guys piloting the #78 and #11 machines. Truex looked great throughout practice and Hamlin was also very strong. The #78 has been fast everywhere this season so it should not be surprising they have once again unloaded strong. The fact that Truex has never run well at Richmond may scare some people as he has just 2 top 5 finishes in 22 starts. However, the speed the #78 showed earlier today is worthy of ignoring all prior history. Hamlin on the other hand has a proven history at Richmond and was likely the fastest car behind the #78. Surprisingly, Hamlin’s best finish this year was 6th at Las Vegas and he has not contended for any victories. However, I do think the #11 team hit on a few things last week at Bristol and they have been strong since arriving at Richmond.

If you look at the speed charts alone, I know you may be asking “what about Kyle Larson?”. Larson has been the MVP of the Cup Series through the first 8 races of the year and there is no doubt that he is incredible in this new low downforce package. From the speed charts on Saturday, Larson finished P1 in final practice and also had the 3rd best 10 lap average. I am sure that Larson will run fairly well. However, I am not confident he will be a contender for the win. Larson has openly stated in interviews this week that he struggles at racetracks like Richmond. He even stated it again after winning today’s Xfinity Series race. Either way, Larson’s long run speed did show more fall off than the other top competitors and that is the big reason I will not be behind the #42 on Sunday. He still has the pure driving talent to run well and possibly win. However, I just think the probability is low that he will get a victory especially considering his current odds.

I am not too surprised with Larson’s comments this week considering Larson’s driving style does not really suit Richmond. What I did find surprising is that both Kevin Harvick and Dale Earnhardt Jr have not been more impressive on the speed charts. Neither driver was in the top 20 in single lap speed and both were well off the pace in 10 lap averages. Considering both drivers have 3 wins at Richmond, I found their practice struggles rather surprising. Earnhardt is obviously not having a good year and they need things to turn around for the #88 team. Harvick on the other hand was one of my top drivers going into the weekend before practices began. I know you cannot always pay practice speeds too much attention especially with a driver like Harvick that spends a great deal of his practice time working on the “feel” of the race car. However, I never saw any competitive lap times at any point in the sessions from the data I was able to obtain. Therefore, it is obvious to me that the #4 team has some work to do.

If you want to talk about guys that have struggled so far this weekend, I would not leave out Brad Keselowski. The driver of the #2 car qualified rather poorly in 15th and they have struggled throughout every session. Similar things can be said for rookies Daniel Suarez and Ty Dillon. Both Suarez and Dillon have been popular dark horse picks in the fantasy world this year but I thought both teams struggled significantly with the handling of their race cars causing them to fall down the speed charts in both of Saturdays practices. Considering Suarez is starting from the 12th position, I am not sure he holds much fantasy value at all. Perhaps Ty Dillon still holds some value from the 24th starting spot but his struggles on Saturday are concerning.

Since I sparked the fantasy conversation, I think your best value drivers for Sunday will come down to Ryan Blaney and Erik Jones who are both listed right at the $8,000 threshold. Blaney is probably the best of the two choices as he showed excellent speed throughout Saturday’s sessions. In fact, Blaney was just one hundredth off Kyle Busch’s 30 lap average. Blaney emerged as one of the top fantasy drivers back at Texas and he has the potential for another great outing again tomorrow. Lastly, Erik Jones starting back in the 20th position has a lot of upside as well. Jones has shown great speed throughout practices and obviously has appealing value due to his starting position combined with his low cost. The risky proposition about Jones is that he has often not had the finishes to show the quality of his runs. So he may be a risky play, but he definitely has the speed that somewhat mirrors teammate Martin Truex Jr if you want to take a gamble with your fantasy lineup on the #77.

2017 Toyota Owners 400 Race Picks

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Denny Hamlin +735 (1.25 units): 3-time Richmond winner, 2nd best average finish among active drivers, has the car to add to those stats
Matt Kenseth +1225 (1 unit): Two-time Richmond winner, had his best practices of the season on Saturday, starting from pole
Jimmie Johnson +1350 (1 unit): going for 3 straight wins, car handling good in practices, should race really well
Clint Bowyer +2000 (1 unit): Two-time Richmond winner, runner-up last week at Bristol, has a ton of momentum

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Larson +170 wins ToyotaCare 250 (win)
Martin Truex Jr +600 wins Toyota Owners 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +1790

H2H Matchups and Props

Kasey Kahne -120 over Ryan Newman (2 units)
Denny Hamlin -110 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Kyle Busch -140 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Jimmie Johnson +110 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Kyle Busch +315 wins Group A (Larson, Harvick, Logano, Keselowski) (1 unit)
Erik Jones +305 wins Group D (Blaney, Earnhardt Jr, McMurray, Kurt Busch) (1 unit)
Kasey Kahne +2000 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +800 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)