2017 Ticket Galaxy 200 Race Predictions

2017 Ticket Galaxy 200 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday November 11th, 3:45PM (EST) at Phoenix International Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Today the Xfinity Series will go racing in the Valley of the Sun when the green flag waves for the Ticket Galaxy 200 at Phoenix International Raceway. If you witnessed last night’s Truck Series race at Phoenix, then you saw how wild things got with a final spot in the Chase on the line before next week’s finale at Homestead. For today’s Xfinity Series race, all 4 spots are still up for grabs. Therefore, we expect another race filled with hard racing, desperation, and excitement. Take a look as we preview today’s action and provide our 2017 Ticket Galaxy 200 race predictions!

Unlike the Truck Series, the Xfinity Series will be making their 2nd stop of the year today at Phoenix. Earlier this spring, Justin Allgaier held off Ryan Blaney and Erik Jones for the victory in the DC Solar 200. Allgaier has been strong at most of the short tracks this year and he was really solid in yesterday’s practices finishing 2nd in both sessions. Allgaier has been one of the best drivers among the Chase competitors or Xfinity Series regulars over the last several weeks with 4 top 5 finishes in the last 6 races. Therefore even though Allgaier’s win over the Cup Series guys back in the spring can be considered somewhat of an upset, I think the chances are there for an encore performance today.

From a practice standpoint, both William Byron and Christopher Bell also stood out among the Cup Series drivers as potential contenders. I thought William Byron’s lap times were really impressive in the final practice. Not only was he the fastest car in terms of 10 lap averages but his overall speed was consistently a few tenths to the good compared to the rest of the field. Now I have been critical of Byron to an extent in recent weeks for under performing. However, he has posted finishes of 4th and 9th in the last two races so there is a chance this team is getting their rhythm back.

For Bell, he will be making his 7th start of the season following his breakthrough win at Kansas just 3 weeks ago. It is worth noting that Bell finished 6th at Richmond in early September in a star studded lineup. Since Richmond has many similarities to Phoenix, I expected Bell to be strong this weekend. In practice, the #18 car finished finished 3rd in single lap speed and also posted the 3rd best 10 lap average in Happy Hour. With the speed shown thus far, Bell should be one of top 5 cars this afternoon.

Another group of guys that should be among those in contention include Cup Series stars Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones, and Alex Bowman. Yes, I understand Bowman is not technically a Cup Series driver yet but I am including him because he will soon take over the #88 ride full-time in 2018. Either way, all 3 drivers have shown speed in practices. Bowman has actually been very strong in terms of lap speed and race speed behind the #42 car. Let’s not forget, Bowman won at Charlotte just over a month ago in somewhat surprising fashion. More importantly, the #42 team needs to be given more credit for their strength in the Xfinity Series. This #42 team has scored 5 wins this season with Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, and Bowman behind the wheel. Therefore, I believe Bowman has serious value entering today’s race.

Jones and Blaney are typically the favorites anytime they enter an Xfinity Series event and that will be the case again today. I am going to be pretty straight forward in my predictions surrounding Blaney and Jones. I was not very impressed with Jones in terms of practices but he has always run well at Phoenix. He started his career by earning his first victory at Phoenix in the Truck Series and has finished 6th or better in 5 of his 6 starts at Phoenix. However, I am not confident in his “winning” potential with the speed shown in practices. I thought Blaney was much stronger and has more credible history on these layouts with the #22 team. Blaney was 2nd to Allgaier earlier this year in the #22 car at Phoenix, it won at Richmond with Brad Keselowski, and finished 5th in the 2nd Richmond race with Blaney behind the wheel. Therefore with one of the fastest cars in practice and a proven track record with the #22, I think Blaney is your top driver heading into today’s race.

A few other rapid fire observations that you may use to your benefit. Both Austin Dillon and Ty Dillon looked off in terms of speed especially the #3 car. The younger Dillon was just 20th fastest in final practice and 21st best in practice 1. Matt Tift practiced well and is seeking his 7th straight top 10 finish in the Xfinity Series. His recent performance has flown completely under the radar which may give him some H2H value. Lastly for anyone wanting to back any of the JR Motorsports cars like Byron, Allgaier, or Sadler, it is extremely important to know that those guys will not have their pit crew members for today’s race. The normal pit crew members were stuck on a plane in Oklahoma and JR Motorsports are searching for replacements for today’s race which has to hurt their value considering how importance of pit road, AKA track position at Phoenix.

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2017 Ticket Galaxy 200 Race Predictions

Alex Bowman +750 (1.5 units)
Justin Allgaier +1650 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Ryan Blaney +220 wins Ticket Galaxy 200
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.25 units to win: TBD

H2H Matchups

Ryan Blaney -110 over Erik Jones (2 units)
Daniel Hemric -140 over Brennan Poole (2 units)
Matt Tift -205 over Ty Dillon (2 units)