2017 TheHouse.com 225 Race Predictions

2017 TheHouse.com 225 Race Predictions
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Friday September 15th, 8:49PM (EST) at Chicagoland Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Camping World Truck Series will end a brief hiatus with the running of tonight’s TheHouse.com 225 at Chicagoland Speedway. After two off weeks in the last month, Truck Series action will pick back up as tonight’s race at Chicagoland will be the last race before the Truck Series Chase begins next week at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. While most Chase scenarios have already been determined due to points barring any surprise winners, we will not add any unnecessary drama surrounding potential Chase scenarios. Besides our main focus is putting together winning bets and profitable betting cards. With that being said, let’s take a look at our 2017 TheHouse.com 225 race predictions!

Tonight’s entry list includes all full-time/part-time Truck Series drivers meaning there will not be any drivers from the Xfinity or Cup Series participating. As a result, Christopher Bell is the favorite for tonight’s event which will likely also be the case throughout the Chase when it starts next week. Bell is the only full-time driver in the Truck Series with multiple victories this season and he has 4 total wins on the year. He has clearly been the best against his Truck Series’ peers and he also scored a victory at Atlanta earlier this year which is probably the closest track in comparison to Chicagoland where the Truck Series has competed this year.

In reality, Chicagoland falls within the theme of races in recent weeks where “tire wear” will be critical. We saw similar storylines unfold at both Darlington and Richmond which led to exciting races in the Cup Series. Chicagoland Speedway has never been repaved since it opened in 2001 giving the track’s surface nearly two decades of wear. The track surface can be closely compared to tracks like Atlanta and Darlington that are notorious for being abrasive on tires. Therefore, we should expect to see lap times fall off in the range of 2-3 seconds over the course of green flag runs which will put heightened focus on pit strategy and pit crews throughout all series this weekend.

In many ways, Chicagoland has become a driver’s track because it houses racing grooves from the top to the bottom that can be effective. As with all 1.5 mile tracks, the track is fast but it can be very difficult to drive because of the low grip conditions. When we come to tracks like Chicagoland that have a lot of “character,” I believe it creates disparity among the competition. It’s hard for drivers to just run away and dominate at tracks like Chicagoland because change is inevitable. Strategy will change, the racing groove may change, and the handling on the race trucks will change. Luckily all of this change creates an excellent racing spectacle.

From an expectations standpoint, I think we have to stay open minded. Tire wear will keep some drivers in contention even if they do not have the optimal trucks in terms of speed. I can understand why Christopher Bell is the favorite due to his accomplishments this season. However, I personally believe this race sets up nicely for veterans Johnny Sauter and Matt Crafton. Both drivers finished 2nd and 3rd respectively earlier this year at Atlanta. More importantly, I like Sauter and Crafton because they are excellent drivers for long runs. If tire wear does become the big struggle that I expect, Crafton and Sauter are excellent at not only taking care of their equipment but having excellent long run setups. You can never tell how strong the #88 truck is from practices because that team typically focuses on race trim lap times. However, I will say that Johnny Sauter looked really good in Thursday’s practice sessions and even finished with the fastest time in Happy Hour. Therefore, I really like both Sauter and Crafton heading into tonight’s race.

I consider Bell, Sauter, and Crafton the “Big 3” heading into tonight’s race with the highest probability of taking home the checkered flag. In fact, I don’t really like the chances of anyone else from all the information that I have put together. Perhaps Chase Briscoe is the best intermediate option. Briscoe has run well at the traditional ovals this season and had some pretty strong practices as well. Briscoe, like Sauter, was also top 2 in each session. However, I am still concerned that Briscoe could struggle with the track conditions. Guys like John Hunter Nemechek, Noah Gragson, and Grant Enfinger are worth mentioning as potential value plays in H2H situations.

Nemechek could be considered a decent long shot as a former Chicagoland winner from 2015. I don’t think the #8 had the greatest speed in practices but he is one of those drivers that usually gets better as the race goes along which is vintage Chicagoland. Therefore, he may be worth consideration along with Briscoe as the biggest challenges to the “Big 3” heading into tonight’s final green flag of the regular season. As a reminder, odds are pretty low for the favorites this evening because of the limited competition among Truck Series regulars. Therefore it is going to be hard to get a sizeable return without raising your risk for each driver. Instead of risking multiple units that raise my risk in hopes for a double digit unit return, I am going to lower all total risk tonight. Therefore, I still have the same amount of ROI despite less units involved.

2017 TheHouse.com 225 Race Predictions

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Johnny Sauter +400 (1.5 units)
Matt Crafton +550 (1 unit)

H2H Matchups

Matt Crafton -105 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)