2017 Texas Roadhouse 200 Race Predictions

2017 Texas Roadhouse 200 Race Predictions
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Saturday October 28th, 1:16PM (EST) at Martinsville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Earlier today the Camping World Truck Series participated in a pair of practices in preparation for Saturday’s Texas Roadhouse 200 at Martinsville Speedway. Tomorrow’s race will feature the start in the Round of 6 for the Camping World Truck Series Chase which will be decided over the next 3 weeks. At this time, we take a look at the Chase drivers that could punch their ticket to Homestead and the potential drivers outside of the Chase that could steal the show. Take a look as we discuss our expectations and provide our 2017 Texas Roadhouse 200 race predictions!

Back in April, Chase Elliott stepped down from the Cup Series to win Alpha Energy Solutions 250 at Martinsville. Elliott held off the likes of Johnny Sauter and Christopher Bell who finished 2nd and 3rd. Going into tomorrow’s race, I think it goes without saying that Sauter and Bell should be the favorites a top everyone’s list. Outside of their 2nd and 3rd place finishes in the spring, Sauter and Bell have consistently been the best drivers throughout the year. Bell leads the series with 5 victories and Sauter has scored two victories on the heels of last year’s championship season.

I personally believe Sauter is the guy to beat tomorrow based off all handicapping angles that I can put together. Sauter has always had a knack for the short tracks and he is the only past winner in tomorrow’s field outside of Matt Crafton when it comes to Martinsville Speedway. In fact, Sauter has won at Martinsville Speedway 3 times including this race last year. In practices earlier today, Sauter finished 4th and 3rd in the two sessions. Christopher Bell was even better in terms of practices and posted the best 10 lap average in final practice. Bell has proven to be a force on any layout this season and his strong run in the spring is further proof that he will also be a contender when the green flag waves.

Outside of the obvious choices between Sauter and Bell, my biggest dark horse entering Saturday’s race is the #8 truck of John Hunter Nemechek. JHN has historically been really strong on the short tracks and is the type of aggressive driver that will make moves to beat drivers on corner entry which is critical towards passing. Furthermore, Nemechek has been very solid at Martinsville in the past with finishes of 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, and 28th in his last 4 starts. If you look solely at the speed charts from practices, Nemechek did not appear as fast as some of the leaders. However, I believe some of those times are misleading especially in the final practice as several drivers elected to use “old” tires. I expect the #8 truck to come to life when this race gets underway and his current odds are generous giving JHN some relative value.

As for the rest of the field, I believe we could see several guys flirt with contention tomorrow. Despite 0 wins this year, Matt Crafton is a two-time Martinsville winner and typically runs very well. I personally have stated on several occasions that while capable I cannot back Crafton until he proves more dominance at the front of the field because his odds are usually fairly low. Instead if you would like to look for “value” among potential outside winners, consider the likes of Chase Briscoe and Ben Rhodes. I thought Briscoe looked good in practices but he is also a driver that seems best suited for the 1.5 mile tracks rather than the short tracks based on driving style. Rhodes on the other hand has proved to be good on all surfaces this year. I thought the #27 was probably one of the most consistent drivers in observing speeds lap over lap. If they can contain that type of consistency on the long runs, Rhodes will be strong.

Another couple of drivers that are worth mentioning include Noah Gragson, Ty DIllon, and Todd Gilliland. Dillon’s name sticks out because he is a Cup Series driver but I do not believe he is in the equipment to impress this weekend. While usually equipment does not mean as much at the shorter tracks, Dillon was outside the top 15 in both practices. Gragson had a good run at Martinsville back in the spring and also had strong runs at Iowa and Gateway which indicate he knows how to get around these shorter/flatter tracks.

Lastly, Gilliland is a driver that I continue to hold in high regards despite limited experience. Gilliland’s first two starts were cut short due to equipment failure but then he finished 11th at Bowmanville followed by a 3rd place showing at Loudon. I personally think Gilliland is going to be a big name in the Truck Series and I took a few bets on him early this week via our forums. From a practices standpoint, I was hoping that the #46 would be a bit better but he did finish 3rd in the first session so I am not completely sure how good they will be on Saturday.

2017 Texas Roadhouse 200 Race Predictions

Want to bet on NASCAR online? Get signed up with the sportsbook that provides the best odds and promotions at 5Dimes

Matt Crafton +450 (1.5 units)
Ben Rhodes +850 (1 unit)
John Hunter Nemechek +1150 (1 unit)
Todd Gilliland +3300 (1 unit)

H2H Matchups and Props

Todd Gilliland -125 over Kaz Grala (4 units)
Johnny Sauter -140 over Christopher Bell (2 units)