2017 Tales of the Turtles 400 Race Predictions

2017 Tales of the Turtles 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday September 17th, 3:16PM (EST) at Chicagoland Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The start of NASCAR’s Chase for the Cup will take place this afternoon when the green flag is waved in the Tales of the Turtles 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. Currently Martin Truex Jr is the overall favorite for the Chase considering his performance throughout the season. Truex and Kyle Larson led all drivers with 4 victories this year but it was the #78 team’s dominance in stage points that has given them a big advantage heading into the Chase. Truex accumulated 18 stage wins which will give him a big points advantage at the start of each round of the Chase. However, we do know things can change drastically from week to week in NASCAR’s playoffs. As we keep an eye on the Chase, we take this time to provide our expectations for Chicagoland and our 2017 Tales of the Turtles 400 race predictions!

One of the major media storylines heading into this week was Brad Keselowski’s twitter comments that stated “We are all in for a rude awakening. Haven’t seen NASCAR let a manufacturer get this far ahead since the 70s.” Obviously Keselowski was referring to the Toyotas which have shown tremendous speed throughout the course of the year and even dating back to last year. I am not here to debate Keselowski’s comments in a right or wrong fashion. However, I do believe Toyota powered cars have the advantage in this Chase and we will definitely see that advantage playout on the bigger tracks. One of the undeniable facts is that Toyotas have dominated the 1.5 mile layouts this season.

Truex has been the main car to dominate the 1.5 mile tracks this season with 3 victories but Toyotas in general have strengthened as the year progressed. As we approach today’s race, I believe a Toyota likely finds their way to victory lane yet again. If you missed my other previews for Chicagoland, I have discussed in great detail that Chicagoland is a very rugged surface that will cause lap times to drop off by 2-3 seconds over the course of green flag runs. Additionally, drivers have stated the bumps in the corners have become more difficult to handle. Therefore we have a track that is going to create handling issues and cause significant tire wear mirroring the likes of Darlington or even Atlanta. With that being said, I don’t even have to talk about practice speeds to suspect these track conditions will play perfectly into the hand of Martin Truex Jr. Truex has excelled on long runs this year which have been apparent in recent weeks at both Richmond and Darlington where tire wear was equally severe. Therefore, expect the #78 to be the main driver to beat once again.

The track conditions just play into the #78 team’s strength which have been maintaining speed on long runs. We saw Truex dominate both Richmond and Darlington races that were equally critical on tire wear. Now I will be the first to remind everyone that Truex’s team failed to win both of those races. One win was avoided due to bad pit strategy and the other was caused by an untimely caution while failing to win the race off pit road. So while I believe that Truex will once again be the car to beat, we need to be prepared for the drivers that will be in position to seize the opportunity if the #78 falters again. If that happens, I believe Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson have to be considered the biggest threats. Larson has proved that he can win when he does not have the fastest car on multiple occasions this year including last week at Richmond. Larson looked awful in practices last week and I did not even consider the #42 as a contender to win the race. I also noted that Larson’s struggles on tracks with significant tire wear in last week’s preview as a reason to stay away. Needless to say, I was wrong on both accords. For this week, I think Busch has been the best car in terms of raw speed but I refuse to count out Larson in any stretch of the imagination.

If we get away from the top 3 guys mentioned above, I believe there is some potential throughout the remainder of the field. Denny Hamlin likely stands alone as the next best option based on Toyota power and current form. Hamlin has posted 3 straight top 5 finishes including his victory at Darlington. Not to mention, Hamlin has posted finishes of 6th, 1st, and 6th in his last 3 starts at Chicagoland. For the rest of the field, I personally really like Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski in today’s race. Harvick is another driver that typically excels on tracks like Chicagoland and his long run speed in final practice was excellent even beyond the 10 consecutive lap mark. Harvick won the first two races at Chicagoland in 2001 and 2002 but has failed to go back to victory lane since despite a pair of top 5 finishes in recent years. From what I observed, I think he has a great opportunity to get back to victory lane today. Keselowski also needs to be mentioned due to his speed and history at Chicagoland. Keselowski had one of his best practices in recent memory on Saturday and his track record at Chicago has been phenomenal with two wins in the last 6 races. Keselowski has also never finished worse than 8th in the last 6 Chicagoland races for anyone pondering fantasy lineups.

For long shot possibilities, I would point everyone towards Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney. Both drivers finished inside the top 5 at Chicagoland last year and I think it is safe to say both drivers have progressed this year. Elliott finished with the best 10 lap average in the first Saturday practice and was really solid in the final session as well. I am really high on Elliott from what I have seen in practices but also equally skeptic considering how Hendrick Motorsports has struggled this season. I mean Jimmie Johnson has not been a factor since the spring. I think that says wonders about Hendrick Motorsports current form but Elliott has been the best of the group so use your own judgment.

If you are looking for a few last minute H2H drivers or potential fantasy options, let me part with saying that Ryan Newman and Erik Jones deserve your attention. I don’t care what practice speeds may indicate. Both Newman and Jones are performing extremely well. Jones has posted finishes of 3rd, 2nd, 5th, and 6th in his last 4 starts. Meanwhile, Newman has posted finishes of 4th, 6th, 7th, and 3rd in his last 4 starts. Both drivers have tackled the tire wear conditions with strong performances and are worthy of respect in both H2H and fantasy situations!

2017 Tales of the Turtles 400 Race Predictions

Want to bet on today’s race? Get instant access to the best NASCAR odds with 5Dimes with an instant signup bonus!

Kevin Harvick +750 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +1000 (1 unit)
Chase Elliott +1500 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Martin Truex Jr +395 wins Tales of Turtles 400
Paul Menard -115 over Danica Patrick
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1240

H2H Matchups

Chase Elliott -140 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Ryan Newman -130 over Daniel Suarez (2 units)
Ryan Newman +1200 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)