2017 Service King 300 Race Picks

2017 Service King 300 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday March 25th, 4:00PM (EST) at Auto Club Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Tomorrow afternoon the Xfinity Series will kick off what promises to be an exciting weekend at Auto Club Speedway with the running of the Service King 300. The ingredients for Auto Club Speedway are prime for excitement featuring a fast 2 mile racetrack, with multiple racing grooves, and a rugged surface that produces significant tire fall off that will put stress on the drivers under low grip conditions. Therefore, we are ready to attack tomorrow’s racing conditions just like the drivers as we prepare for some fun racing on the last leg of this west coast swing. Take a look as we preview tomorrow’s race and provide our 2017 Service King 300 race picks!

I consider Auto Club Speedway a “drivers race track” but that does not take away from the fact that raw speed is very important. Aside from raw speed, this track really favors the drivers that can keep the tires under them and can keep up with the racetrack. Therefore, this race favors the Cup Series drivers that will be in action via the likes of Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, Erik Jones, and even Paul Menard. Obviously those guys possess the most talent behind the wheel due to their Cup Series experience but they are also in some of the best equipment as well which is a deadly combination at Fontana. If that is not enough proof, consider the fact that all 5 drivers finished inside the top 10 in both practices on Friday to validate their contender statuses for Saturday’s 300 mile event.

Judging by Friday’s practices, I believe you can lay a blanket over Jones, Busch, Larson, and Logano in terms of speed. They were easily the best of the bunch on Friday. Busch, the overall favorite going into Friday, struggled a bit with the handling on the #18 car. However the team did make some improvements with adjustments and Rowdy laid down the 2nd best 10 lap average in final practice behind Logano. Busch has won 6 of the last 11 Xfinity Series races at Auto Club Speedway so do not expect slight handling conditions from Friday to hold back his chances of winning on Saturday especially considering the speed in the JGR cars.

However if we are going by observations from Friday, I do feel like Erik Jones and Joey Logano had the best overall speed throughout practices. Logano was fastest in both sessions and even posted the best 10 lap average in final practice. He has a 2012 win in this race on his resume and I would quickly point out that the #22 has shown tremendous speed this year after a lackluster 2016 campaign. Jones also had very good speed posting the 3rd best 10 lap average behind Logano and Busch. I think Jones was within the exact same speeds of Logano but I still worry about his long run potential. Jones has not exactly been overly impressive on tracks that express these extreme low grip conditions and that worries me when I consider backing the #20 for Saturday.

If you followed my early Auto Club 400 predictions article this week, I likened Auto Club Speedway’s surface to Atlanta as both have a track surface with the same age going back to 1997 when the surface was last paved. Obviously Atlanta is a bit more rigid and has a more severe slope in fall off with lap times. However, I find both tracks fairly comparable in terms of overall grip. Interestingly, Jones has only led a total of 4 laps at either Atlanta or Auto Club throughout his Xfinity Series career. Therefore, that is my biggest reason for not taking Jones despite the speed he has shown this weekend. On the contrary, I would rather take a guy like Kyle Larson who may have not shown the most “raw” speed in practices but we know that he will race very well under these track conditions.

Outside of the Cup Series drivers that I expect to dominate the front of the field on Saturday, I would like to point out that Ty Dillon and William Bryon displayed some speed on Friday as well from the Xfinity Series “regulars” camp. Byron is gradually getting better each week and I think everyone is aware of his talent. He posted his best finish of the year last week at Phoenix with a 4th place outing so I think he is going to only get better as we progress into the season. Ty Dillon on the other hand has suffered a terrible start to the 2017 season with a best finish of 15th place at Atlanta. Dillon posted his best practices of the year on Friday so if they can’t maintain their speed in race trim then Dillon may have the chance to put together a quality run which is long overdue.

As always I like to provide both sides of the speed chart involving guys that looked fast and also guys that struggled for potential match-up purposes. Two guys that I thought struggled significantly included both Daniel Hemric and Brennan Poole. Poole struggled with handling issues and consistency in his attempt at a long run in final practice. Meanwhile, Hemric struggled to find both speed and handling which is somewhat surprising considering how well he has raced in his rookie season. Therefore, those are some items to keep in mind for tomorrow’s 300 mile race. Take a look at our optimal betting lineup for the Service King 300 as we look to build momentum off last week’s big win with Justin Allgaier (+1350).

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2017 Service King 300 Race Picks

Kyle Larson +450 (1.5 units)
Erik Jones +950 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Joey Logano +150 wins Service King 300
Slot 2 – Open
Risking 1.5 units to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Joey Logano -135 over Erik Jones (3 units)