2017 Rinnai 250 Race Predictions

2017 Rinnai 250 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday March 4th, 2:00PM (EST) at Atlanta Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Tomorrow afternoon NASCAR will host an exciting double header at Atlanta Motor Speedway between both the Xfinity and Camping World Truck Series. The Xfinity Series will kick off the afternoon’s action with the running of the Rinnai 250. Several of the brightest names in the sport will be competing for the checkered flag including Cup Series veterans Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Austin Dillon, and Kyle Larson. Those big names will join a very talented crop of Xfinity Series regulars for 250 miles of exciting racing. Take a look as we provide our thoughts and 2017 Rinnai 250 race predictions!

We made a great deal of attention last week towards NASCAR’s new 3 segment style race format because it produced some aggressive racing along with a lot of wrecked race cars. This week the same format exist but with an added element of intrigue caused by Atlanta Motor Speedway’s racing surface. Earlier today, we saw drivers from the Truck Series all the way up to the Cup Series struggle significantly with handling caused by a lack of grip due Atlanta’s aged surface. For those that are not aware, Atlanta has one of the oldest surfaces out of any NASCAR’s current tracks. In fact, Atlanta Motor Speedway is scheduled to be repaved this spring due to the extreme surface conditions. Still, the underlying issues of the current surface will be seen throughout this weekend’s races where drastic tire fall off will be inevitable and drivers will have to fight ill handling conditions caused by a lack of overall grip.

Therefore, tomorrow’s race really falls into the lap of the Cup Series veteran drivers and their experience throughout their careers on similar racing surfaces. Drivers are going to have to take care of their tires, continuously search for grip by experimenting with different grooves on the track, and stay on top of so many other variables from the cockpit of their racing machines. As a result, these conditions really favor guys like Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and potentially even Kyle Larson. Harvick has 4 wins in the Xfinity Series at Atlanta that includes 3 of the last 4 races. Despite being in a Ford this year, Harvick’s #41 Stewart-Haas Racing machine has been plenty fast this weekend and posted the best 10 lap average in final practice. Busch was the only other car that was right there with Harvick in terms of long run speed and was quite possibly the best overall car throughout all sessions on Friday.

While I would list Harvick and Busch as the top two favorites tomorrow, this new style of segment racing and the changes that will be accompanied by Atlanta’s surface throughout the course of 250 miles still leaves a lot to be desired about the potential outcome of tomorrow’s race. I think you have to give some respect to all the Cup Series guys in tomorrow’s field. Kyle Larson is always a guy that you want on your lineup on race day at Atlanta. Larson was pretty fast in practices on Friday but he always races even better once the green flag drops. Larson has finished inside the top 5 in 3 of 4 career Xfinity Series starts at Atlanta including a runner-up finish last year. I thought Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, and Austin Dillon were the worst of the Cup Series drivers in terms of speed in practices. Keselowski actually posted some pretty solid lap speeds but just did not have the overall consistency. Even Aric Almirola who I mistakenly left out of the group previously, posted some very fast laps. Meanwhile both Dillon and Hamlin were surprisingly pretty far off in terms of raw speed.

Outside of the Cup guys, I don’t really foresee any of the Xfinity Series regulars sneaking into contention tomorrow. I could be wrong but this is a hard track for young drivers and there is so much veteran talent showing on this entry list that they should be able to stay out front. However, I do believe there may be some hidden gems that are worthy of some H2H action. I would put Daniel Hemric at the top of that list. Hemric was great on the 1.5 mile tracks in the Truck Series last year finishing with the best average finishing position among all drivers (4.55 avg finishing position). This may be Hemric’s first year in the Xfinity Series but he has a unique talent for these 1.5 mile tracks and he also paced the field with the fastest time in the 2nd practice earlier today. I jumped on one of Hemric’s early match-ups against Ryan Reed who has historically been bad on the 1.5 mile tracks. I believe it was a good time to fade Reed considering he had some elevated value due to last week’s win at Daytona. However, his resume on these tracks is very modest and I like Hemric’s potential in this spot for a solid finish if he can stay out of trouble.

There may be more potential for a few other hidden gems tomorrow. William Byron and Cole Custer have posted some fast laps. However, I am just not confident that they can withstand the struggle of 250 miles at Atlanta and stay ahead of the track which changes significantly throughout a single race. Therefore, I do not have any other guys that I am extremely confident in from a H2H perspective. The only other very noticeable aspect that I gathered from today’s activities is that for whatever reason the #7 car of Justin Allgaier struggled in a big way. Allgaier had a great 2016 season with JR Motorsports and they are expecting similar results this year. On Friday, the team had all types of handling issues that are going to need some big changes to get back into a competitive setting. Therefore if you can find a solid matchup that includes fading Allgaier, it may not be a bad play. For now that is all that we have but keep an eye on this page as we update our race picks to put together our betting card for tomorrow’s Rinnai 250!

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2017 Rinnai 250 Race Predictions

Kevin Harvick +400 (1.5 units)
Kyle Larson +750 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch +110 wins Rinnai 250
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Matchups

Daniel Hemric -140 over Ryan Reed (2 units)
Kyle Larson -110 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)