2017 Quaker State 400 Race Predictions

2017 Quaker State 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 8th, 7:45PM (EST) at Kentucky Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Last night the Alsco 300 was postponed due to rain at Kentucky Speedway meaning today’s on-track activities will now feature a double header with Xfinity Series race rescheduled for 12:00PM (EST) followed by tonight’s Quaker State 400 in the Monster Energy Cup Series. Several of the top drivers for tonight’s Cup Series event will be doing “double duty” by participating in both races today which will total 700 miles. While we get ready for a rare double header, we take this time to shift our focus towards tonight’s main event and provide our 2017 Quaker State 400 race predictions at Kentucky Speedway!

As a reminder, Kentucky Speedway was repaved and reconfigured prior to the 2016 race. I personally view Kentucky as rather unique compared to other 1.5 mile tracks. The track is very fast but the banking is not as steep as most other 1.5 mile layouts. In fact, the banking in the turns flattens out which puts added stress on rear grip with this low aero package. Therefore, handling and pure driving ability will be keen in tonight’s Quaker State 400. Also since lap speeds have not experienced much fall off on the new surface that leaves the door open for strategy calls on pit road. Everyone should expect strategy to take place on pit road tonight because “clean air” will be very important as well.

The good news from a handicapping perspective is that Kentucky’s layout and forced driving style plays right into the hands of the drivers that have excelled all season. Therefore, I do not expect to see any huge surprises contending for a victory this evening. In fact, I could narrow down tonight’s favorites to an elite group of 4 drivers that includes Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Busch, and Brad Keselowski. Larson and Truex have been the best drivers all season. Truex has had the most speed on a weekly basis in the #78 machine and I simply believe Larson has been the best driver behind the wheel of the #42 car. Both drivers have scored two wins this season and both of Truex’s wins have come on 1.5 mile surfaces. Judging from Friday’s practices along with the facts mentioned above, I would clearly expect the #78 and #42 to be among the main contenders tonight. Obviously things will be a little tougher for Larson who will start dead last after failing to make it through inspections for qualifying but rest assured he should rocket towards the front.

For Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch, I would also list both drivers into that elite group of favorites tonight which should probably not be any surprise considering both drivers prior success at Kentucky Speedway. Of the 6 races run at Kentucky Speedway in the Cup Series, Brad Keselowski has scored 3 victories and Busch has scored 2 victories. Matt Kenseth is the only other driver that has recorded a Kentucky win with his 2013 victory. Busch and Keselowski have been the kings of Kentucky and until that changes I would not bet against either one. Busch indicated that the trend could continue on Friday when he earned the pole for tonight’s race in a rain shortened qualifying effort. On the season, Busch has not been quite as strong as the likes of Keselowski, Larson, and Truex who all have 2 wins each. In fact, Busch is still searching for his 1st win on the season and tonight’s 400 mile race at Kentucky has to be considered a great opportunity for the #18 team.

Outside of that elite group of favorites, the conversation can open up for debate. I would argue that the drivers that have excelled under this aero package, that can fight the loose entry and exit conditions, should be the types of drivers that you want on your radar. If you follow that line of thinking, many people may point to Jimmie Johnson because he does own the most wins on the season with 3 victories. However, Johnson has never been overly impressive at Kentucky. In fact, Kentucky is just 1 of 3 tracks where Johnson has never scored a win. The #48 was decent in practices on Friday but he did not show me enough to indicate he has a “winner.”

Instead when I look back through the rest of the drivers especially in the realm of mid-tier options, guys like Ryan Blaney, Kevin Harvick, and potentially Chase Elliott could be thrown into the conversation. If you look back at the Kansas night race which has some similarities to Kentucky Speedway, Blaney dominated that race before a late race pit road mistake thwarted his winning efforts. Blaney still rallied to 4th place finish in that race. However, I believe in Blaney’s driving style which is suited well for a place like Kentucky and I also liked the speed that the #21 showed in practices. In fact, practice speeds are one reason that I mentioned Chase Elliott because the #24 looked really good in terms of speed.

Elliott had a good start to the season but has lost some momentum in recent weeks. However, I think tonight’s race is a good opportunity for him to get back on track. He is another driver whose driving style seemingly fits this style of racing. Lastly, I would not overlook Kevin Harvick tonight. Something tells me Harvick is going to win a race on Saturday or at least contend for the victory. I am not sure if it will be in the Xfinity Series race early today or in the main event later this evening. However, the stats line up for Harvick who has performed really well on the 1.5 mile tracks and he is also a guy that usually tends to emerge in racing conditions where rear grip is a concern. Therefore, keep Harvick in strong consideration.

If you are looking for some really big long shots whether it is for betting purposes or potential fantasy purposes, let me suggests guys like Matt Kenseth, Jamie McMurray, and Daniel Suarez. Kenseth should be the least surprising on that list because he has an unbelievable track record at Kentucky that features a 5.2 average finishing position in 6 starts. Jamie McMurray is another driver that has performed well in similar races this year and I think continues to benefit on the new found speed at Chip Ganassi Racing. McMurray actually posted the fastest lap in the opening session Friday and the car has remained strong throughout each session since.

Last but not least, let’s get Daniel Suarez a nod of approval. I have not talked about Suarez much because he has not been in contention for wins much this season. However, Suarez has overachieved in terms of most people’s expectations this year. He has a knack for finding ways to get the best finish despite how the team performs throughout the week. Suarez had one of his best efforts of the year at Kansas where he finished 7th and he showed enough speed in practice to be worthy of some fantasy/H2H possibilities for tonight’s race.

2017 Quaker State 400 Race Predictions

Get in on today’s betting action with Bovada!

Kyle Larson +1200 (1.25 units): fastest in 2nd practice, track suits his driving style very well, should be tough, starting from the back
Joey Logano +1650 (1 unit): early forums pick, mediocre practices, but value play in terms of odds
Ryan Blaney +2750 (1 unit): early forums pick, tremendous value in opening odds, dominate in Kansas race, strong in both practices, starting 6th

Two Team Parlay

Martin Truex Jr 495 wins Quaker State 400
Kasey Kahne +115 over Dale Earnhardt Jr
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1475

Kyle Larson +145 finishes Top 5
Chase Elliott -120 over Joey Logano
Risking 1 unit to win: +350

H2H Matchups and Props

Kurt Busch -120 over Dale Earnhardt Jr (3 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr -115 over Austin Dillon (3 units)
Ryan Blaney -145 over Clint Bowyer (2 units)
Erik Jones +360 wins Group C (Earnhardt, Ku Busch, Dillon, Kahne)
Jamie McMurray +1100 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)