2017 Pocono 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday June 11th, 3:18PM (EST) at Pocono Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The Monster Energy Cup Series will attempt to tackle the Tricky Triangle tomorrow afternoon when the green flag waves for the Pocono 400 at Pocono Raceway. On Friday, Kyle Busch earned his 2nd straight Coors Light Pole Award and will lead the field to the green flag for the 2nd week in a row. Busch has been running extremely well in recent weeks with top 5 finishes in 3 of his last 4 races but remains part of a winless group from Joe Gibbs Racing. However, I believe Busch has a great chance to end the drought for JGR and he tops my list for drivers to watch heading into Sunday. Find out the rest of my thoughts as I provide my 2017 Pocono 400 race predictions!
Pocono and Charlotte are the only two tracks where Kyle Busch has failed to record points paying victory. However if you remember Busch’s victory in the All-Star Race several weeks ago, Pocono is the only track where Busch has failed to score any type of victory. To put things into an empirical perspective, Kyle Busch is 0 for 24 at Pocono Raceway. From a betting standpoint, we typically stay away from trend breakers. On the other hand, all of the JGR cars have found some speed in recent weeks and the #18 team has been the best of the entire group. Before last week’s 16th place finish which was mainly contributed to an early pit road mistake, Busch had recorded finishes of 3rd, 5th, and 2nd. Even with last week’s pit road blunder, the #18 team still had a lot of speed and it is very evident the team has built some momentum. Busch not only won the pole on Friday but he backed up that speed with the fastest lap in Happy Hour earlier today. Therefore I just feel like this team is doing everything right heading into tomorrow’s race and they definitely have the speed to find victory lane which is the reason the #18 is my overall favorite for Sunday.
Even though I feel like Busch is the overall favorite for Sunday, I don’t think you can rule out any of the guys that have been week to week threats this season under this new package. Those guys include Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr, and Brad Keselowski. I really like Keselowski’s value for tomorrow’s 400 mile race given his impressive Pocono resume that features a 2011 victory along with 3 straight finishes of 3rd or better. Keselowski has been snake bitten with bad luck in recent weeks but will have the opportunity to turn things around at one of his best tracks. Keselowski snapped a 46 race drought for the #22 team in the Xfinity Series’ race earlier today so perhaps that momentum rolls over into Sunday since they have shown plenty of speed from the #2 car since unloading Friday.
A group of drivers that could be sneaky picks to win tomorrow’s race include Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Chase Elliott. I know success is measured by wins and that is why guys like Keselowski, Truex, and Larson have been the popular favorites this season. On the other hand if you look back over the last 7 races, Kevin Harvick has been as good as anyone. With several quality finishes in recent weeks, it appears the #4 team is gaining ground each week as they continue to build on the transition to Ford. With that being my view of things, I believe Harvick is inching towards scoring his first victory of the season. Meanwhile Kurt Busch and Chase Elliott are dark horse picks that deserve consideration. Busch is the defending winner of the Pocono 400 and put together some of his best practices of the season thus far. Meanwhile, Elliott finished 4th in this race last year while leading a race high 51 laps and he rebounded from a poor qualifying effort with a solid session in Happy Hour.
All of the Hendrick Motorsports cars struggled in qualifying on Friday but I would not completely overlook those guys in race conditions. If anything I think Elliott, Earnhardt, and Kahne may hold more H2H value as a result of their starting positions. Statistically, Pocono has been Earnhardt’s best track and he leads all drivers with a 7.4 average finishing position in the last 10 races which includes 2 wins. The only problem with those stats when considering the #88’s chances to win tomorrow is that the team just has not been good this year. The #88 struggled again with the balance on the car in Happy Hour so I do not think they have a winner despite Earnhardt’s success at the Tricky Triangle. Still, I would not rule out Earnhardt’s chances for a strong run and a top 10 finish is definitely reachable.
If you were looking forward to taking Earnhardt or any other driver that I have not mentioned at high odds, please do not let me stop you from long shot possibilities. Pocono offers a wide range of strategies especially with this new format of stage racing. Considering guys can pit and not lose a lap, means you will have several drivers pitting towards the end of stages to capitalize on track position. Additionally, you cannot completely rule out the potential for fuel mileage playing a factor in the outcome of this race either with a track as big as Pocono. For those reasons, I believe your betting lineups can be infiltrated with a few long shot opportunities. RCR drivers have been great at capitalizing on strategy calls this year. Ryan Newman captured a huge upset win at Phoenix after staying out on old tires on a late race restart and Austin Dillon scored an even bigger upset in the Coca Cola 600 two weeks ago at Charlotte in a fuel mileage race.
Obviously you cannot handicap for these strategy wins but you can take chances on drivers that you expect to run towards the front. In both circumstances with Newman and Dillon, those drivers put themselves in position to take those chances by running well in both races. So while predicting the exact nature of how a race will unfold in terms of strategy may be unpredictable, we can still focus on the drivers that should run relatively well and perhaps throw some extra action at drivers with really good odds. In those scenarios, our risk stays low but yields a high reward if we hit a driver that benefits from a strategy influenced finish.
2017 Pocono 400 Race Predictions
Kevin Harvick +850 (1.25 units)
Chase Elliott +1000 (1.25 units)
Jamie McMurray +4000 (.5 unit)
Two Team Parlay
Brad Keselowski +215 wins Pocono Green 250 (win)
Kyle Larson/Brad Keselowski +349 wins Pocono 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +1314
H2H Matchups
Paul Menard -140 over Chris Buescher (4 units)
Kevin Harvick -125 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units)
Chase Elliott +360 wins Group B (Johnson, Logano, Kenseth, Hamlin) (1 unit)
Dale Earnhardt Jr +725 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Jamie McMurray +575 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Kasey Kahne +1000 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
