2017 Overton’s 301 Race Predictions

2017 Overton’s 301 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday July 16th, 3:15PM (EST) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Sunday, the Monster Energy Cup Series will take center stage at New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the running of the Overton’s 301. Last week, Martin Truex Jr scored his 3rd win of the season at Kentucky tying Jimmie Johnson for the most wins on the season. Tomorrow’s Overton’s 301 is one of those races that is very important for race teams because the Cup Series will return to Loudon in late September during the Chase. Perhaps tomorrow’s 301 mile event will be the opportunity for a few teams including Truex to prove they are championship caliber teams. As we prepare for Cup Series racing in Loudon, we take this time to provide our 2017 Overton’s 301 race predictions!

I understand everyone probably already considers the #78 team to be a championship caliber group. They have clearly been the best team, in terms of speed, in the Cup Series this season along with Kyle Larson. However, Truex has still yet to win a race away from the 1.5 mile surfaces and I know this team is eager to prove they can get the job done on different layouts. Therefore while I already consider Truex a championship contender, the #78 team could send a huge statement to the rest of the competition with another win on Sunday. So far this weekend, the #78 team has been nearly flawless. They won the pole on Friday, they were the fastest in the 1st practice on Saturday, and were 2nd in Happy Hour. I know Truex does not have the most exciting track history in Loudon but don’t bet against the team that is fielding the fastest car in the field week over week.

As far as the rest of the competition, I would love to start off my conversation with the Team Penske drivers of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano. Keselowski holds the best average finishing position (6.4) among all drivers over the last 10 races and Logano has been the best over the last 5 races with a 4.4 average finishing position that includes a 2014 win. Both drivers have been very strong here in recent races and I think this track fits both driver’s driving styles. However with that much being said, these two cars have just been off in recent weeks. Logano played the strategy game perfect at Kentucky last week but could only bring home an 8th place finishing marking just his 2nd top 10 in the last 9 races. Additionally, Keselowski has been in the midst of a mini slump in recent weeks. While the #2 has been better than the #22, neither team has shown “winning” speed.” Therefore, I am staying away from both Penske drivers until I see a change in their performance.

Instead the majority of my focus is being geared towards the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers for Sunday’s racing action. I keep saying Joe Gibbs Racing is improving each week and they are showing great speed in all of their racecars. I am sure there is some frustration that JGR is winless this season despite the fact that Martin Truex has excelled from the same JGR alliance. However, New Hampshire has been a great track for Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Matt Kenseth. Busch and Hamlin are 2-time winners meanwhile Kenseth has 3 Loudon victories including 2 in his last 3 starts. I consider New Hampshire Motor Speedway to be one of those tracks that really favors towards experience. Throttle control and tire conservation are really important on long green flag runs which is something that is usually the product of experience. Tire conservation is the reason that Matt Kenseth has been so strong here in recent years.

If you go back and watch those races, Kenseth has excelled on long runs when most drivers run the rear tires off of their cars. If you do not think that tire conservation is important, just ask Kyle Larson who has openly admitted to struggling at Loudon on long runs because of his aggressive driving style. Lucily for Joe Gibbs Racing, Busch, Hamlin, and Kenseth are great on these flat tracks and they are starting to peak at the right time in terms of speed. I will be the first to admit that I have not been behind Kenseth much this season. I felt like that team has under performed and surely the news that Erik Jones will be joining the #20 next year has not helped matters. Still despite all the issues, Kenseth is really good here so I do not think anyone should overlook him. I still like Busch the most out of the JGR brigade but both Hamlin and Kenseth are close behind.

If you are looking for other options, I think there are some noteworthy dark horses that are capable of running upfront on Sunday. I personally love the odds on guys like Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott. Elliott has looked great throughout every stage of the weekend and Blaney also likewise looked really good in practices especially on long runs. I know Elliott is still winless in his 2nd season but I think his current “status” is flying under the radar. The #24 team has posted finishes of 5th, 8th, 2nd, 8th, 22nd, and 3rd in the last 6 races. Despite the strong runs, there has not been much talk about this #24 team which is surprising because they are really close to winning one of these races. I think Elliott has a great chance tomorrow.

As far as the rest of the field is concerned, I would be embarrassed if I did not talk about Jimmie Johnson or Kyle Larson. I should mention Johnson every week because in reality he can win on any given Sunday. However, the #48 just has not been that strong since his win at Dover. In fact, his best finish was 10th at Michigan since that time. The good news for the #48 fans, is that Johnson has been fast since unloading on Friday. I also could not blame anyone for wanting to back either Kevin Harvick or Kyle Larson. Let’s face it, Larson is among the best cars every week and that is mostly accredited to his talent behind the wheel. However, I am just a touch shy of taking Larson giving his struggles on long runs at New Hampshire.

Additionally Larson is starting from the back just as he did last week at Kentucky. Larson had no trouble running up through the field last week but stalled out once he got around the top 5. A speeding penalty actually sent him back and he had to battle his way through the pack a 2nd time. By the time he got a glimpse of the front row, he was chasing Truex to the checkered flag and ran out of time with new tires. Tomorrow, he will have a race that is even shorter in distance compared to last week and on a track that is more difficult to pass. Now I am not saying Larson cannot get the job done from the back but the team cannot have the mistakes like they did a week ago. If you also account potential long run tire struggles Larson has had at Loudon, I think he is a high risk play.

2017 Overton’s 301 Race Predictions

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Matt Kenseth +950 (1.25 units)
Denny Hamlin +900 (1.25 units)
Kyle Larson +1350 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch -105 wins Overton’s 200 (win)
Kyle Busch +425 wins OVerton’s 300
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1156

Martin Truex Jr +375 wins Overton’s 300
Ryan Newman +135 over Kasey Kahne
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1270

H2H Matchups and Props

Martin Truex Jr -130 over Brad Keselowski (3 units)
Kyle Larson -145 over Joey Logano (3 units)
Denny Hamlin -110 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Chase Elliott +450 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)