2017 Overton’s 200 Race Predictions

2017 Overton’s 200 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 15th, 4:15PM (EST) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

NASCAR’s top two series has invaded Loudon as both the Xfinity and Monster Energy Cup Series prepares for racing at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Today all eyes will focus solely on the Xfinity Series and the running of the Overton’s 200. One of the major storylines entering today’s race includes the PJ1 trackbite resin that has been layered on the surface of New Hampshire Motor Speedway to expand the racing groove (towards the bottom of the track) in hopes of providing more side by side racing. We have seen this resin used previously this season at both Bristol and Charlotte. However, this is the first time this substance has been placed on a flat racetrack which should enhance the overall impact. As we observe the impacts of the resin and potential implications it will have for Sunday’s Cup Series race, we take this time to provide our 2017 Overton’s 200 race predictions!

Despite the intrigue around track conditions, I think it is safe to say that today’s race will be a 3 horse race between Cup Series stars Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, and Brad Keselowski. New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a difficult race track for young drivers because it is flat which lacks grip and most of the speed is made from throttle control. As a result, experience typically outshines raw talent in races at Loudon. In fact, the last 11 straight race winners in the Xfinity Series at Loudon have been via full-time Cup Series drivers which paints the perfect picture of why experience is important at a difficult racetrack like New Hampshire. Of course when you have a combination of both experience and raw talent, then that makes guys like Keselowski, Larson, and Busch really stand out as favorites because they have both the talent and the experience combined.

If we talk about history, then Busch and Keselowski have clearly been the best drivers at Loudon over the years. In fact, both drivers have contributed to 7 of the last 8 wins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with Rowdy leading the way with 5 victories. Four of those victories for Busch have been via the #18 car, which he will be driving today, including last year’s dominating victory where he led 190 of the 200 scheduled laps. If you consider the way both the #22 and #18 cars have performed this season, then how could you bet against them? In my opinion, the only guy that could potentially spoil the show from the #18 and #22 is Kyle Larson in the #42 car. Despite the equipment, Larson has been phenomenal in everything this year including the Xfinity Series where he has 3 wins in 7 starts. I don’t personally believe he is quite as good as the #18 and #22 in terms of the car but I cannot rule out his chances because he is arguably the best driver in the sport right now. For me if I had to rank the top 3, I would line them up just like they are starting today’s race with the #18, #22, and #42.

If you are looking back in the field, I think there will be a few other drivers that run well despite their chances to win being limited with the Cup Series guys. Elliott Sadler and William Byron are two of my top choices for the “best of the rest” so to speak. Sadler was really happy with the long run speed that the #1 machine had in Friday’s practices and he was pretty solid this morning in knockout qualifying ending the final round P8. Byron is a driver that never overly impresses in qualifying but is one of the best racers when the green flag waves. He was the same way last year in the Truck Series and is doing the same again this season with finishes of 2nd, 1st, 1st, and 7th in his last 4 starts. Byron had a dominating win in the Truck Series last year at Loudon when he led 161 of 175 laps. He may not have the experience as some of the Cup Series guys but he has enough talent to keep the #9 at the front of the field this afternoon.

Another driver that I believe has a ton of sleeper potential in H2H bets is the #00 of Cole Custer. Custer will be making his 1st Xfinity Series start at Loudon this afternoon but he has 3 starts in the Truck Series including a victory in his 2014 debut. I have long dubbed Custer as a short flat track driver. He excels on these types of surfaces just look at his resume on tracks like Loudon, Martinsville, and Gateway. Luckily for Custer, today’s race comes at a time when the #00 team has been looking good in terms of speed in recent weeks. The #00 was arguably the best car throughout practices among the Xfinity Series regulars and I think he will have a quality run this afternoon.

2017 Overton’s 200 Race Predictions

Get in on today’s betting action with Bovada!

Kyle Larson +500 (1.5 units)

Two Team Parlay

Brad Keselowski +270 wins Overton’s 200
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Kyle Busch -110 wins Overton’s 200
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.25 units to win: TBD

H2H Matchups

Cole Custer -115 over Matt Tift (5 units)