2017 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday April 9th, 1:46PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
On Sunday the Monster Energy Cup Series will unleash 40 cars on the newly reconfigured and repaved Texas Motor Speedway with the running of the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. So far this weekend, the “new” Texas has been laboring for both drivers and crews. The list of drivers that have either spun, wrecked, and brushed the wall is likely longer than the guys who have not had trouble. As a result there is a huge level of uncertainty heading into Sunday’s 500 mile event. We take this time to talk about the uncertainties and provide our insight for tomorrow’s Texas showdown. Take a look as we provide our 2017 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 race picks!
If you read my preview for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race, then I discussed in detail the factors that were causing the troublesome racing conditions at Texas Motor Speedway. Teams did not get a chance to test on the newly repaved surface. Therefore GoodYear brought a fairly conservative and hard racing tire which lacks overall bite. As a result of very limited on-track racing, a very narrow single groove has emerged at the very bottom of the racing track. Most of the driver issues that we have seen this weekend has been a product of guys getting outside of that narrow groove where rubber has been laid into the track. Therefore, things will get edgy for drivers trying to make passes tomorrow when cars are forced to the outside of the preferred racing groove.
For drivers and crew chiefs, everyone knows that you must run the bottom of the track to move forward tomorrow. One of the biggest challenges with the reconfiguration of Texas is that turns 1 and 2 are completely different than turns 3 and 4. Banking was taken out of turns 1 and 2 which is causing cars to drop about an extra 20 mph through that particular end of the racetrack. Meanwhile, drivers are able to stay in the gas for the most part in turns 3 and 4. The problem this has caused is that drivers are having a tough time getting the car slowed down to hit what has become an edgy racing line in turns 1 and 2 while crew chiefs are having a tough time finding the correct balance for the car to work well on both ends of the speedway. This conundrum alone is the reason we have seen so many ill handling race cars throughout practices this weekend.
The good news is that we were able to overcome these uncertainties earlier today in the Xfinity Series winning all of our bets for the 2017 My Bariatric Solutions 300. The bad news is that Sunday promises to be a steeper challenge. Several big names were not even able to qualify on Friday due to problems getting cars through tech inspection. Heck even Jimmie Johnson spun during qualifying meaning that Johnson along with guys like Erik Jones, Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and Kasey Kahne will be starting from the rear of the field. Normally I would not worry about so many drivers starting at the rear of the field. However with the number of incidents due to the narrow racing groove and number of fast drivers starting at the back, I have to worry about an early wreck taking out some of the “favored” drivers entered Sunday’s event.
More importantly than the starting position concerns is that fact that we saw an overwhelming amount of parity throughout all practices this weekend. We have seen some surprise names like Ty Dillon, Aric Almirola, Trevor Bayne and even Michael McDowell stay towards the top of the speed charts this weekend. While I know those times only reflect single lap speed, I want everyone to know that there has been a large amount of parity among all drivers. I personally was looking forward to match-ups involving Trevor Bayne because he had such a strong outing in Saturday’s practices. However, Bayne was a victim of turn 1 and 2 during Saturday’s final practice and will know have to go to a backup car. The #6 team did get to run a few laps with their backup car but it is rather tough to predict if they will have the same speed. Before the incident, the #6 car was having his best practices of the season.
Outside of Bayne, I thought his teammate Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Ty Dillon displayed some strong speed on Saturday among the lower tier drivers that you might find valuable in either fantasy or match-up situations. Dillon has been flirting at the top 20 borderline for several weeks now but has shown an uptick in speed. Meanwhile the Roush-Fenway cars have shown surprising speed all weekend. Therefore, I really like both Stenhouse and even Bayne in a backup car to have value in match-up situations.
As far as the guys that should contend for the victory, I think the common list of names that have excelled under this new downforce package remains the group of favorites again this week. Therefore guys like Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott go to the top of the list. Those 3 guys have been the best under this new aero package. Larson and Keselowski have been nothing short of incredible this season. Since Daytona, Keselowski has 2 victories and 5 straight top 5 finishes. Larson has one victory and 4 runner-up finishes. They have easily been the best two drivers under this new package and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday. Keselowski and Larson showed excellent speed again on Saturday. I would give the #2 car the advantage between the two but both guys were fast.
Chase Elliott, who has posted 3 top 5 finishes in the last 5 races, was also very fast in his backup car. Elliott posted top 5 finishes in both Texas races last season. While the track was different then, I still like that stat from a confidence factor and Elliott has the driving talent to excel in the racing conditions that will be seen on Sunday. Outside of those 3 guys that I think clearly have the advantage under this new package, I would keep an eye on guys like Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Jimmie Johnson in that next group of contenders. Harvick will be starting on the pole and looks very consistent on long runs. Johnson has the most wins at Texas all-time with 6 and he posted the fastest time in final practice on Saturday. Meanwhile, Kyle Busch has been towards the top of the charts in every 10 lap average this weekend and he is another driver that has performed well with this new package.
Another two guys I would keep on my radar that should be primed for strong runs include both Clint Bowyer and Dale Earnhardt Jr. I would not necessarily put either of those drivers in the potential winners category but I do think they can post quality runs. Bowyer has not finished worse than 13th since Daytona and the #14 team is gaining some momentum. He is the only driver from Stewart-Haas Racing that mirrored the speed of Kevin Harvick and I think this time is starting to come alive. Remember, Bowyer finished 3rd just two weeks ago in Fontana on another very fast racetrack. Meanwhile, Dale Earnhardt Jr has had a horrific start to the 2017 season. The #88 has yet to record a top 10 finish and has found trouble more often than not. Luckily, Texas could be the place that could turn Junior’s luck around. After all Texas is the site of Junior’s first win in the Cup Series and the site where he has posted top 10 finishes in 9 of the last 11 races. More importantly than all, the #88 has shown speed this weekend so this could be the week they get the finish they need.
2017 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Race Picks
Want great NASCAR odds? Want to parlay race winners? Get signed up with Bovada:
Kyle Busch +800 (1.25 units): two-time Texas winner, looked really good on long runs of the cars that made long runs in practice
Chase Elliott +1000 (1.25 units): early forums pick, top 5 finishes in both Texas races as a rookie, has shown speed all weekend
Kyle Larson +1500 (1 unit): excellent under this new package, lacked a little speed on Saturday but is not far off either
Erik Jones +4000 (.5 unit): long shot value play, has excellent resume at Texas in lower series including Xfinity win on Saturday.
Two Team Parlays
Ty Dillon -145 over Daniel Hemric (win)
Kevin Harvick +540 wins O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Risking 1 unit to win: +980
H2H Matchups
Ryan Blaney -105 over Jamie McMurray (2 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr +115 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
AJ Allmendinger -125 over Daniel Suarez (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +325 wins Group C (Bowyer, McMurray, Jones, and Newman)
Matt Kenseth +500 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
