2017 NASCAR Total Wins Predictions

2017 NASCAR Total Wins Predictions

Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
By Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper for NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s silly season is in full swing as we narrow in on the start of the 2017 season. There have been several monumental news releases already this off-season including the arrival of a new primary sponsor in Monster Energy and Dale Earnhardt Jr’s announcement that he will officially return to racing in the Daytona 500 on February 26th. While we still await the news surrounding other drivers, teams, and sponsors, odds makers have already began posting odds for the 2017 season. Odds have been posted for the Daytona 500, the 2017 Cup Championship, and several other season long propositional bets. As we continue our preparations for another promising season, we take this time to review some of the win total propositions courtesy of 5Dimes. Take a look as we release our first official picks of the year with our 2017 NASCAR total wins predictions!

NASCAR Cup Series – Points Race Wins Odds

Sun 2/26 20101 Jimmie Johnson race wins over 5 +135
2:00PM 20102 Jimmie Johnson race wins under 5 -175
Must compete in any February or March points race for action

Sun 2/26 20103 Kyle Busch race wins over 3½ -125
2:00PM 20104 Kyle Busch race wins under 3½ -115
Must compete in any February or March points race for action

Sun 2/26 20105 Kevin Harvick race wins over 3½ -125
2:00PM 20106 Kevin Harvick race wins under 3½ -115
Must compete in any February or March points race for action

Sun 2/26 20107 Joey Logano race wins over 3½ -105
2:00PM 20108 Joey Logano race wins under 3½ -135
Must compete in any February or March points race for action

Sun 2/26 20109 Matt Kenseth race wins over 3½ +140
2:00PM 20110 Matt Kenseth race wins under 3½ -180
Must compete in any February or March points race for action

Sun 2/26 20111 Brad Keselowski race wins over 3 -120
2:00PM 20112 Brad Keselowski race wins under 3 -120

Must compete in any February or March points race for action

Sun 2/26 20113 Martin Truex Jr race wins over 2½ -130
2:00PM 20114 Martin Truex Jr race wins under 2½ -110
Must compete in any February or March points race for action

Sun 2/26 20115 Carl Edwards race wins over 2 -155
2:00PM 20116 Carl Edwards race wins under 2 +115
Must compete in any February or March points race for action

Sun 2/26 20117 Kurt Busch race wins over 1 -140
2:00PM 20118 Kurt Busch race wins under 1 +100
Must compete in any February or March points race for action

Sun 2/26 20119 Dale Earnhardt Jr race wins over 1 -135
2:00PM 20120 Dale Earnhardt Jr race wins under 1 -105
Must compete in any February or March points race for action

Sun 2/26 20121 Kyle Larson race wins over ½ -270
2:00PM 20122 Kyle Larson race wins under ½ +190
Must compete in any February or March points race for action

Sun 2/26 20123 Chase Elliott race wins over ½ -245
2:00PM 20124 Chase Elliott race wins under ½ +175
Must compete in any February or March points race for action

Kurt Busch +100 race wins under 1 (3 units)

Kurt Busch has scored just 4 victories in the last 5 seasons and we have a propositional bet that is basically laying the over/under total at 1 win for Busch’s 2017 season. This bet seems about on par with Busch’s performance over the last several years but let me tell you why the under is a good bet for this year. First even if Busch maintained his current performance and did get a victory this year, at worse case scenario this bet would be a push. I am basically saying that I cannot perceive Busch winning two races and I put a high likelihood on the fact that he will go winless this season. The reasons for this logic is because Busch has just one multiple win season in the last 5 years and that transpired in 2015 when Stewart-Haas was performing at the top of their game. Kevin Harvick was winning nearly every week and all of their cars were fast. However, Busch still only managed two wins during that breakout season. Last year, SHR suffered a decline in performance granted Busch was still able to squeeze out a victory at Pocono and some solid top 10 showings. At the end of 2016, it appeared that the Hendrick Motorsports cars had caught the JGR Toyotas in terms of performance. Therefore, there will be more vultures in the likes of Jimmie Johnson, Chase Elliott, and even Dale Earnhardt Jr potentially competing for more victories this year along with the rest of the Toyotas. More importantly is the fact that SHR makes their move to Ford this season and nobody really knows how that transition will impact their performance. We have seen teams benefit from immediate manufacture changes recently. Just look at Furniture Row Racing’s transition from Chevrolet to Toyota last year with Martin Truex to see how well that turned out. However, Furniture Row Racing relied solely on equipment from Joe Gibbs Racing for their smooth single car transition at a time when JGR was beginning to emerge from the rest of the other groups in the garage. Stewart-Haas will rely on their own in-house chassis builds this season and their engines will come from Roush-Yates Engines. Let’s be honest, Roush-Yates Engines have not performed well in recent years and there are too many potential concerns to expect immediate benefits to this transition to Ford for a multi-car team. For this bet to lose, you would have to assume that Stewart-Haas would have to get the same performance they did a year ago when they relied on Hendrick Motorsports for equipment and that Busch performs even better from behind the wheel. Neither of which seem likely.

Dale Earnhardt Jr -135 race wins over 1 (3 units)

Dale Earnhardt Jr’s return to racing is among the biggest story lines heading into Daytona Speedweeks this February. Earnhardt missed 18 races in 2016 due to lingering concussion related symptoms. After taking an extended period of time away from the sport to ensure his health was properly addressed, Earnhardt announced that he would be back behind the #88 in the Daytona 500 and it is evident he is ready to race again. Obviously there is some concern that another concussion could sideline Earnhardt again which would impact the outcome of this bet. However, Earnhardt took enough time away to ensure his health was 100% when he returned so we should not worry about the “what if” scenarios no more than we would for any other driver. Before 2016, Earnhardt posted 7 victories over the prior two full seasons with win totals of 4 in 2014 and 3 in 2015. Despite Earnhardt’s absence in 2016, one thing that many people overlooked was how well the #88 team performed in Earnhardt’s absence especially with Alex Bowman behind the wheel. Prior to the 2016 season, Greg Ives became the crew chief of the #88 team and he is among the most talented crew chiefs in the sport. Once Ives was able to build his own cars, the #88 team showed tremendous speed even with Earnhardt sidelined. As stated above, Hendrick Motorsports ended the year with some steam and I would be very surprised if they did not back that up with some power out of the gates this season. With Earnhardt healthy, that is a deadly combination to blow this win total out of the water. Additionally, Earnhardt is currently the overall favorite to win the Daytona 500 which is pretty common for any restrictor plate race involving an Earnhardt. Earnhardt has been extremely strong at the restrictor plate tracks in recent years with two victories in the last 2 years and several runner-up finishes. I would not be surprised if Earnhardt scored at least 1 victory at either Daytona or Talladega this season making this bet fairly easy to hit if the #88 can find at least one other checkered flag this season. With Greg Ives on top of the box, things seem very probable.

Chase Elliott -245 race wins over 1/2 (5 units)

Chase Elliott’s win total cannot “push” like the other bets above. That is because Elliott needs just one victory for this ticket to cash. Sure, it is a chalky bet and that may keep some bettors away. However, I am here to tell you that this is the best bet on the board. Elliott just posted one of the most impressive rookie seasons in NASCAR history against some of the best competition the sport has even seen in the modern era. Elliott’s rookie campaign produced 10 Top 5 finishes including two different runner-up finishes. He posted top 5 finishes at both Texas, both Dover, and both Michigan races in his Cup Series debut. I would be willing to bet that Elliott captures a win at one of those tracks this season just by how strong he performed in 2016 at those venues. However even if it does not happen at those specific tracks, he proved that he can run with the best in the sport on all surfaces. The kid was good at the short concrete tracks of Bristol and Dover, he performed extremely well on the fast tracks of Pocono and Michigan, and performed exceptionally well on the 1.5 mile tracks all season. Keep in mind we are not talking about a normal rookie when we refer to this young talent. We are talking about a driver that beat some of the best drivers in NASCAR as a rookie in 2014 in the Xfinity Series in his come to fame season. I have said for years that Elliott is going to be NASCAR’s next superstar and he will take a step in that direction this year. Count on it!