2017 MyHouse.com 300 Race Predictions

2017 TheHouse.com 300 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday September 16th, 3:46PM (EST) at Chicagoland Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Xfinity Series’ regular season will conclude on Saturday with the running of the TheHouse.com 300 at Chicagoland Speedway. As a result, this will be the last week that we see Cup Series drivers participating in Xfinity Series events because they are barred from all Chase races throughout the remainder of the year. Tomorrow Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez, Austin Dillon, Ty DIllon, and Kyle Larson will get an opportunity for a final Xfinity Series victory on the season. However, we will still have to keep an eye on several Xfinity Series regulars that could spoil the show. We discuss potential winners and drivers to watch as we present our 2017 TheHouse.com 300 race predictions!

If you missed my Truck Series preview, I want to stress once again the importance of track conditions tomorrow. Chicagoland Speedway’s surface is extremely abrasive and worn which is going to create extreme tire wear. Lap times will easily fall off between 2-3 seconds from the start to end of green flag runs. Additionally, drivers have also openly admitted to troubles to get cars to handle on the bumps in the corners of the track which have manifested more since last year’s race. Therefore drivers are going to be faced with the ultimate test in low grip conditions, with tires that wear rapidly, and cars that will likely face some type of handling issues throughout tomorrow’s 300 mile race.

So what does all of this mean? Well it means a couple of things. First and foremost, strategy could come into play because tires will be so important. Any time strategy is probable, I like to consider an additional 1-2 options for the victory because it makes it that much harder for the fastest car to win. Secondly, we must expect the Cup Series drivers to strive under these difficult driving conditions compared to the Xfinity Series regulars. Not to say we should count out anyone by default but you have to side with the raw driving talents. In this field, that would be Kyle Larson followed by Ryan Blaney and Erik Jones.

When comparing those 3 drivers, I really like Erik Jones as my primary driver instead of the popular favorite Kyle Larson. I am sure Larson will be in contention but Jones really impressed me with lap times in Friday’s practices. Furthermore, Jones has also won 2 of the last 3 races at Chicagoland Speedway. In last year’s race, Jones held off Kyle Larson after a late race restart to score the victory. I personally thought Jones’ lap times were a touch better than both Larson and Blaney on Friday. However, all 3 guys were pretty close and easily the best among the field. Therefore, you can be justified by taking any of the favorites. If I had to rank them in order, I believe it is the #20, #42, and #22 in terms of speed.

Even though the Cup Series guys will be the odds on favorites, we still need to pay close attention to the Xfinity Series regulars. Remember the next 7 races will be focused solely on the Xfinity Series regulars which could make things difficult from a handicapping perspective. Therefore, we need to pay close attention to these guys for the next few weeks. After observing Friday’s sessions, I have come to a couple conclusions. My first conclusion is that I did not see anyone with race winning speed. I thought William Byron and Elliott Sadler looked good among the full-time drivers but they were still a few tenths off each lap compared to what the Cup Series drivers were posting.

My second conclusion was to expect the unexpected. I saw several drivers struggle severely with handling and even cars that were handling good still get really out of shape over the bumps in the corners. Therefore, I expect to see some accidents especially if we have a couple of late race restarts that tighten up the field late in the race. With tire wear being so critical, I think drivers are going to have their hands full. Fortunately, I think that scenario opens up a few opportunities in the H2H matchups. Guys like Brendan Gaughan and Cole Custer had upside in H2H situations. Meanwhile guys like Darrell Wallace Jr, Daniel Suarez, and even Austin Dillon looked like drivers you could consider fading.

2017 TheHouse.com 300 Race Predictions

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Ryan Blaney +550 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Erik Jones +245 wins TheHouse.com 300
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.25 units to win: TBD

H2H Matchups

Ryan Blaney -115 over Daniel Suarez (3 units)
Elliott Sadler -140 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Matt Tift -165 over Darrell Wallace Jr (2 units)
Brendan Gaughan +165 over Brennan Poole (1 unit)