2017 Monster Energy All-Star Preview
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday May 20th, 8:16PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Tonight NASCAR returns home for the 33rd edition of the Monster Energy All-Star Race at Charlotte Motor Speedway. This event has changed frequently throughout the years surrounding the number of laps, drivers, and overall format of the race. Even tonight’s race will feature a brand new format that includes the option for different tires in the final segment in hopes to create an exciting finish. Despite all the changes throughout the years, the prestige of being crowned winner of the All-Star Race is unparalleled to any other race in NASCAR. As we prepare for one of the greatest nights in racing, I want to take this time to provide our 2017 Monster Energy All-Star preview!
The reason this is a “preview” and not a race predictions title is simply because I am foregoing any official betting picks tonight. I mentioned above how often this race changes and it is usually done by NASCAR in hopes to create exciting racing. As a fan, I absolutely love this race. I love seeing NASCAR’s best go at it in a Saturday night dirt track type of format. I love the location at Charlotte Motor Speedway, the home of NASCAR. I love the history of this race with winners like Darrell Waltrip, Dale Earnhardt, Bill Elliott, Davy Allison, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and others. I also love the fact that winning this race, unlike other All-Star events in major professional sports, can be a benchmark to a driver’s career resume.
With that being said and for everything I love about this race, I absolutely hate this race from a betting standpoint. I am sorry if that burst anyone’s hopes for placing some big bets on tonight’s event. However because this is a non-points race where drivers have sort of a checkers or wreckers mentality, because of the ever changing format that adds unpredictability to the race, and because of several other factors that I will refrain from rambling about.. this race does not bode well for bettors. Even with a handicapping edge, this race is so unpredictable in so many ways that it is nearly impossible to have a true betting advantage. Another reason I hate this race from a betting standpoint is because the field is cut in half which always has an effect on producing unfavorable odds. For those reasons, it is extremely difficult to bet this race with confidence and yield a valuable return for the risk.
Therefore I will be watching this race tonight as a fan and will wait for the Coca Cola 600 next week before adding any official race picks. However, I still want to provide my thoughts going into tonight’s race for anyone wanting to lay some action. If you have not taken the time to review the format for tonight’s event, I highly suggest doing so because it is surely setting up to be a wild final segment. To recap, only 10 drivers will race in the final segment and teams will also have the option to run “softer” tires which have more take off speed for the final 10 lap dash. If teams choose to select the “softer” tire compound, they will start in the back of the final segment. Needless to say you will have drivers gambling for track position, some electing tires, and then a recipe for all hell to break loose over those final 10 laps.
Because the first 3 segments are just 20 laps each, I feel like you need to stagger your lineups with drivers that excel on restarts and short runs. I know short run vs. long run drivers can change from week to week depending on the car, setup, track, etc. However, I believe this format favors guys like Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch. Larson has been one of the fastest guys all season and he also won the pole for tonight’s All-Star Race. I think his speed, take off ability, and absolute talent is ideal for an All-Star type race. For Kyle Busch, I know JGR is in a mini slump right now but Rowdy has been running well recently including a 5th place finish at Kansas last week. If there is any driver that I could choose for restarts and a short run finish in all of NASCAR, Busch would be that guy. Busch also looked extremely strong in practices yesterday and backed up that speed by qualifying 2nd. Therefore, I am really starting to like the chances for the #18 team.
If you look throughout the rest of the field that is locked into tonight’s event, I think you have to get serious consideration to Martin Truex Jr and Jimmie Johnson. I mean Johnson’s resume at Charlotte needs no explanation and he is a 4-time winner of the All-Star Race. Truex has been the clear best on the 1.5 mile tracks over the last year going back to his dominate performance at Charlotte in the Coca Cola 600. If I had to choose a driver simply on speed, the #78 would be at the top of the list. However in my opinion, Truex is not the aggressive or short run driver that I want on my lineup to win the All-Star Race.
Obviously arguments could be made for guys like Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano entering tonight’s race. Logano won this race last year but did struggle with speed in practice/qualifying on Friday. I thought Harvick had the best speed outside of Busch and Larson. Harvick is also a former All-Star Race winner and has been running exceptionally well. I don’t think Harvick has got enough credit for his recent finishes which include 4 straight top 5’s if you exclude the restrictor plate race at Talladega. The #4 team is starting to show the speed that we have seen over the last 4 years and I think they are really close to getting another victory.
So while I feel like Larson, Busch, and Harvick are the drivers to beat tonight. I still feel like this race holds the potential for a surprise winner. Let’s also not forget that we have some pretty good drivers that will be trying to race their way into the All-Star Race tonight from the Monster Energy Open. Clint Bowyer, Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones, and Chase Elliott are just a few names that will try to earn 3 additional spots into the All-Star Race this evening. All four of those drivers were fast in the Open practice and have shown the ability to run upfront this year. Elliott and Blaney have been really strong on the 1.5 mile tracks. Therefore if any of those guys get into the show, I would expect them to race forward and potentially be in the 10 car hunt for the final segment.
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