2017 I Love New York 355 Race Predictions

2017 I Love New York 355 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday August 6th, 3:18PM (EST) at Watkins Glen International
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

For the final time this season, the Monster Energy Cup Series will go road racing when the green flag waves later this afternoon for the I Love New York 355 at Watkins Glen International. A little over a month ago, Kevin Harvick scored an impressive win at Sonoma Raceway in an exciting race that featured the most lead changes (13) in Sonoma history. Today we rekindle the excitement that accompanies road course racing as NASCAR’s top drivers tackle Watkins Glen International. We take this time to provide our betting analysis and 2017 I Love New York 355 race predictions as we discuss the drivers that have the best opportunity to find victory lane later this afternoon.

For the 2nd week in a row, NASCAR is experimenting with a shorter weekend schedule that features just two days of on-track activity. Both practices for today’s race took place on Saturday and qualifying is literally wrapping up. I purposely waited to compile today’s preview so I could have a sense of the starting lineup. Typically starting positions do not hold a lot of weight in terms of handicapping. However, I feel that starting positions at the road courses are probably more important at these tracks than any other on the NASCAR schedule. If you consider the difficulty with passing, how far the field can get spread out under green flag conditions, and the ultimate effect that track position has towards strategy; then it is not hard to understand the importance of running towards the front especially considering these road course races are also the shortest events on the calendar in terms of race length.

If you don’t think that starting position is important, then just look at the history at Watkins Glen. The furthest back anyone has ever won this race is from the 18th starting position and that was Steve Park back in 2000. In the last 13 races, the winner has started inside the top 7 in 10 instances. It has also been won by the pole winner in 9 of the 34 races held at The Glen. Therefore, starting position definitely has an advantage point and should be considered when constructing lineups. Outside of the starting conundrum that does not appear to hold any surprises for today’s race, I think we have a pretty good idea of what we can expect this afternoon based on current momentum, practices, and even a glance back at Sonoma.

Now it is important to understand that Sonoma and Watkins Glen are very different. In a cliff note version, Sonoma focuses more on swinging turns in roller coaster fashion with limited passing zones whereas Watkins Glen is more focused towards speed and heavier breaking input in certain steep transitioning corners. The heavier breaking zones have historically favored guys with open wheel or road course backgrounds. Tony Stewart won 5 times at Watkins Glen and even AJ Allmendinger captured his first Cup Series win in 2014. If you compare the difference of Allmendinger at Sonoma compared to Watkins Glen, you will notice a drastic change in performance. Allmendinger holds a measly 22.4 average finishing position over the last 10 races at Sonoma compared to a strong 9.4 average finishing position at The Glen. Therefore, this track definitely favors the open wheel guys that are typically better in the hard breaking zones around the track.

With that being said, I am not saying that open wheel backgrounds should be your primary source of reference. In fact, quite the contrary but I just feel it is important to understand their strengths here at The Glen compared to Sonoma. If we truly break down the top competitors for today’s race, I believe we will see that Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Busch will likely be the drivers to beat. Both Truex and Busch have been the best guys on a weekly basis over the last several weeks and Busch finally ended his winless streak last week at Pocono in rather dominating fashion. Back at Sonoma, both drivers were among the best cars before Kevin Harvick stole the show late with brilliant strategy. Truex dominated at the front of the field at Sonoma before he suffered engine issues that resulted in a 37th place finish. Therefore we know this team can back up their oval speed at the road courses. In practices, I thought the #78 was the best of the best yet again on Saturday with Busch closely behind.

Obviously Truex and Busch will be the heavy favorites for today’s race, so let’s talk about the next best options. I don’t think Allmendinger has the speed to contend from what we have seen thus far. Instead, my next in line favorites would surround the likes of Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski. Hamlin won this race last year and finished 4th at Sonoma. Keselowski has never won at The Glen, but has finished runner-up 3 different times and finished 3rd in this race last year. I believe both of those drivers would likely be considered overwhelming favorites if the #78 and #18 cars were not as dominant as they have been in recent weeks. Therefore, both guys have significant value.

Throughout the remainder of the field, I think notable mentions should be given to Clint Bowyer and even Kurt Busch based on track history. Bowyer is an interesting driver considering he posted so many quality finishes here with terrible equipment and also drove his way into a threat for the win at Sonoma with a runner-up finish. I believe Bowyer is a dark horse contender but the only problem with that is he is fairly overvalued from an odds perspective. Bowyer has been as low as 8-1 at some books prior to qualifying and I find that hard to believe considering he has not won a race since 2012. Therefore, I am not sure he upholds the “dark horse” title from an odds standpoint.

If you are looking for a few other drivers that may have some upside for various reasons, do not look past Joey Logano despite his poor performance over the last 2 months. Logano is nearing a situation where he is going to have to win a race to make the Chase. Logano has been solid at Watkins Glen including a 2015 win and I believe that is a team that will make some bold strategy calls if needed. A few other guys to consider that may bring some value to lineups in terms of H2H bets or fantasy perspectives include the likes of Chase Elliott and Michael McDowell.

I believe Elliott is an under rated road racer but has been very good at this style of racing even going back to his Truck Series days. Elliott even registered a 6th back at Sonoma and a 13th place finish in this race last year. After a pair of solid practices, the #24 should be a good drier for H2H situations. The same can be said for Michael McDowell who has really impressed all season from a speed standpoint for one of the lower-tier race teams. McDowell is another driver, with an open wheel background, that could post a quality finish this afternoon. McDowell has rarely had the speed to contend in these races in the past to showcase his true skills at The Glen but this will be his best chance this afternoon. Therefore, I think McDowell has some H2H value as well.

2017 I Love New York 355 Race Predictions

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*More picks to come closer to race time

Denny Hamlin +1150 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1500 (1 unit)
Clint Bowyer +1800 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Martin Truex Jr/Brad Keselowski +269 wins I Love New York 355
Ryan Blaney +175 over Chase Elliott
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1150

H2H Matchups and Props

Joey Logano +120 over Jamie McMurray (2 units)
AJ Allmendinger -130 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units)
Michael McDowell -140 over Daniel Suarez (2 units)
Denny Hamlin +375 wins Group B (Larson, Allmendinger, Johnson, and Bowyer)