2017 Lilly Diabetes 250 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 22nd, 3:30PM (EST) at Indianapolis Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Today history will be made at Indianapolis Motor Speedway as the Xfinity Series introduces restrictor plates at one of the world’s most renowned speedways for the Lilly Diabetes 250. Along with the restrictor plates, rules changes surrounding the 2016 spoiler and splitter have also been reimplemented. In the last few years, races at Indianapolis have lacked passing and leaders often run away from the competition in clean air. Therefore, all of these experimental rule changes are in hopes to provide more closer racing and present more passing opportunities in today’s race. As we anticipate the results, we take this time to provide our thoughts and 2017 Lilly Diabetes 250 race predictions!
Contrary to popular belief, this will not be the first time restrictor plates have been used away from the superspeedways of Daytona and Talladega. The Cup Series used restrictor plates at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in September of 2000 as a safety precaution following the deaths of Adam Petty and Kenny Irwin Jr at the track earlier that year. However, today’s race at Indianapolis will mark the 1st attempt to use restrictor plates to make the competition better. So far throughout practices, we witnessed several cars that were able to stay close together and drivers trying to learn how to make runs by locking bumpers. Still, a certain level of uncertainty remains surrounding what exactly will unfold this afternoon.
From what I have seen, I do not think the racing at Indianapolis is going to experience any dramatic change. Despite the rules package change allowing cars to draft and stay close behind other cars, it was still very difficult to pass in practices yesterday. In fact, I did not see many passes at all from cars that did not have someone behind them pushing them. So I am not sure if today’s race will present any changes besides simply bunching up the middle of the pack while the top cars with the most speed stay at the front of the field. I know when people hear restrictor plates, they may think of “pack racing” that we see at Daytona and Talladega. However, that is not how the restrictor plate racing at Indianapolis will be as the speeds are lower and there is more focus on the racing groove at the bottom of the track. As I result, I do not believe we will see any huge difference in today’s race at least at the front of the field under green flag conditions. Restarts will be very important as it may present the best opportunities for passing and establishing track position.
So what does that mean? Simple, guys like Kyle Busch and Joey Logano should stay at the top of everyone’s list because they have the fastest cars and the most talent. For the remainder of the field, some may point to Erik Jones as the next best guy with speed and talent. I don’t think this is a great spot for Jones for one simple fact. He does not perform well in races where the field is bunched up or in situations where you have to strategically move through the field. Since I don’t expect Jones to be leading this race, I think he is going to have a hard time fighting off the competition as they stay relatively close together.
If you are looking for someone to make a “surprise victory” this afternoon, then I think attention needs to be directed towards all of the JR Motorsports cars. Regardless of the style of racing, those cars have been excellent any time a restrictor plate has been added. Thus far through practices, Allgaier, Sadler, and Byron have looked really strong on speed. In fact, all 3 cars have been in the top 6 in every practice. The only problem I have is selecting the best of the 3 drivers. I personally want to lean towards Allgaier then Byron and Sadler. However, I would not blame anyone for taking any of the JR Motorsports drivers based on the speed they have shown thus far throughout the week.
2017 Lilly Diabetes 250 Race Predictions
*Check back closer to race time
Joey Logano +500 (1.5 units)
Justin Allgaier +800(1.25 units)
William Byron +850 (1.25 units)
Two Team Parlay
William Byron +140 over Erik Jones
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD
H2H Matchups and Props
Joey Logano -125 over Erik Jones (3 units)
