2017 Kobalt 400 Race Picks

2017 Kobalt 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 12th, 4:00PM (EST) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Monster Energy Cup Series will take center stage Sunday afternoon when the green flag is waved for the Kobalt 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Earlier this week, Las Vegas Motor Speedway made headlines when they announced they would add a 2nd race in 2018. Currently, the Cup Series makes just one stop in Sin City each spring and it has produced some great racing. Even though the decision has already been made to add a 2nd event, tomorrow’s race in Las Vegas could be an audition to NASCAR to earn a spot in 1 of the 10 Chase races in 2018. Therefore, we expect another exciting race similar to last week’s great show at Atlanta. Follow us as we provide a full race preview and our 2017 Kobalt 400 race picks!

The first thing I would like to point out is the difference in the track this week. Sure Las Vegas is another 1.5 mile layout similar to last week’s race at Atlanta Motor Speedway. However, Las Vegas’s surface is not nearly as abrasive as Atlanta meaning we will not see the extreme falloff in lap speed over the course of green flag runs. Last week, I spent a great deal of time breaking down the drivers that performed best on low grip race tracks and the drivers that typically manage their tires very well. As predicted, guys like Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Larson performed really well. Also, we hit our main pick with race winner Brad Keselowski to top things off.

This week our focus switches from the tire fall off and tire management to handling and balance. Where Atlanta was more driver dependant type of track, Las Vegas is more setup dependent 1.5 mile track. The key for drivers and crew chiefs this week is getting the correct balance on the car to handle the bumps through the corners to ensure optimal speed from center off. Obviously the driver has a big impact on how well they get through the corners but they are going to need a car that has good balance on both ends of the speedway. I believe one of the biggest overlooked aspects to tomorrow’s race is the guys that keep performing extremely well on this new lower aero package.

The new aero package makes these cars very tough to drive and it is hard to keep rear grip as a result of less downforce. However guys like Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Larson have performed extremely well in each of races with this new package. Keselowski won the initial race at Kentucky last year under this new aero package that will be the standard throughout the Cup Series this season and backed it up with another win at Atlanta last week in the first non-plate race of the season using the same package. Elliott, Harvick, and Larson were also good in all of those races from last year to last week at Atlanta. Therefore, it is very clear that those drivers have made headway under this new package.

I say that and it sounds like those drivers have this new aero package figured out from a setup standpoint. In reality, I think those drivers just perform better under this new package from the driver’s seat and I expect that to be a theme this season. Elliott, Larson, and Keselowski had excellent practices on Saturday which leads me to believe they are poised for another run at a victory. Harvick has been a tick off this weekend as they have struggled with the balance on the #4 car. However, I still think Harvick has enough long run speed to get him towards the front.

I expect a lot of parity in tomorrow’s race. There were several drivers that have shown promising signs. Martin Truex Jr has been near the top of the leaderboards throughout every session. Jimmie Johnson, who owns the most wins (4) at Las Vegas, was among the best towards the end of Saturday’s final practice. Meanwhile guys like Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch have shown some promising signs. Therefore, I believe we will have a situation similar to last week at Atlanta where there will be plenty of guys ready to pounce if someone at the front makes a mistake. Speaking of mistakes, Las Vegas has been notorious for handing out pit road speeding penalties in recent races and we know how costly speeding was to Kevin Harvick last week. Therefore, let’s hope pit road mistakes do not cost anyone a winning ticket.

If we can avoid any unforeseen troubles, I would put Chase Elliott and Brad Keselowski as my top two drivers heading into Sunday. Along with Keselowski’s success under this new aero package, he has also won 2 of the last 3 at Las Vegas. Therefore, he deserves the #1 spot. However, I would not be surprised at all to see Elliott score his first win at the conclusion of 400 miles tomorrow. Elliott has been very fast throughout all sessions and has the long run speed to contend for the victory. I would also not shy away from throwing Martin Truex Jr into the mix either if you are looking for another top tier driver. Truex dominated the 1.5 mile tracks last year and has been fast since unloading. The team was a touch off in terms of long run speed but they are a few adjustments away from casting shades of their 2016 form as well.

I would put the likes of Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Kyle Larson into “Group B” for tomorrow’s winning group. All of those guys have the potential to get into the mix tomorrow especially Johnson considering his resume at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. On the other hand, I feel like Kenseth may be the sharpest play of the group. He also looked really good at the end of final practice and I like the way that team rallied last week at Atlanta after having a mediocre race for the first 400 miles. A few other guys that may be worth some consideration from a long shot, H2H, or even fantasy perspective include dark horses like Ryan Blaney and Erik Jones. I have been very surprised with the speed out of the #21 this weekend and who could ignore Jones impressive run last week at Atlanta? Both guys have been solid again this week and I expect more quality runs from those young guys.

The best odds in NASCAR courtesy of 5Dimes:

2017 Kobalt 400 Race Picks

*More picks to come closer to race time

Chase Elliott +1050 (1.25 units): extremely fast in all sessions and has been great under this aero package
Matt Kenseth +1300 (1 unit): 3 times Las Vegas winner, solid throughout all sessions, strong outing at Atlanta last week as well
Kyle Larson +1400 (1 unit): early forums pick, 4th in 10 lap averages in final practice, another strong driver under new aero package with win at Michigan and 2nd at Atlanta

Two Team Parlays

Brad Keselowski/Jimmie Johnson win Kobalt 400
Daniel Suarez +110 over Clint Bowyer
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1079

Ryan Blaney +375 finishes Top 5
Kyle Busch +145 over Kevin Harvick
Risking 1 unit to win: +1063

H2H Match-ups and Props

Dale Earnhardt Jr -115 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Daniel Suarez +110 over Clint Bowyer (1 unit)
Jamie McMurray -115 over Austin Dillon (1 unit)