2017 Johnsonville 180 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Sunday August 27th, 3:20PM (EST) at Road America
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Despite the fact that the Cup Series is enjoying a rare off weekend, we will still be delighted with racing festivities via the Xfinity Series at Road America on Sunday with the running of the Johnsonville 180. Unlike most Xfinity Series events, Cup Series drivers will be absent from Sunday’s race at Road America paving the way for Xfinity Series full-time drivers to have a chance at victory. To make things more interesting, we have a few talented road course talents in promising rides that could shake things up as well. Unlike most races, we do not have any clear favorites entering Sunday’s race which should do two things; it should keep things interesting and provide some promising betting opportunities. Therefore, take a look as we provide our thoughts for Sunday’s road racing and provide our 2017 Johnsonville 180 race predictions!
The Xfinity Series is the only series in NASCAR that currently has Road America on it’s schedule. However, the racing action has been very exciting in recent years and this Sunday’s race promises to be another great one considering the wide variety of names that could potentially visit victory lane. Road course racing is nothing new for the Xfinity Series as Sunday’s event at Road America will be the 3rd road course event in the last 4 races. In the last two road course races at Watkins Glen and Mid-Ohio, we witness victories from Kyle Busch and Sam Hornish Jr neither of whom will be racing this weekend. However, we did see quality runs from the likes of Justin Allgaier, Daniel Hemric, and Matt Tift in those races. Hemric and Tift had their best finishes of the season at Mid-Ohio two weeks ago which has created high expectations yet again. Meanwhile, Justin Allgaier has always been one of the better drivers at road course races and is honestly a driver to watch anytime the entry list is absent of Cup Series talent.
In reality, just because a few drivers have shown strong finishes in recent weeks that does not mean you should take a gamble on them winning on Sunday. I am mainly making that comment towards anyone thinking about possibly taking a flier on Matt Tift or Daniel Hemric. I am a fan of Hemric but I like his chances for a 1st win to come on an oval. Let’s not forget that even Andy Lally posted a 5th place finish at Mid-Ohio so let’s not overreact to recent finishes. Instead, let’s start off the conversation for potential winners by talking about the best talents in this field especially at road course racing. To initiate that conversation, let me suggest Justin Allgaier, Justin Marks, and James Davison. I mentioned earlier that Allgaier is usually a factor in races where there not any Cup Series drivers but we should also mention he has been really good at road course racing in his career with wins at Mid-Ohio and Montreal. He was also clearly the best amongst the Xfinity Series regulars back at Watkins Glen just a few weeks ago.
Outside of Allgaier, you may not be familiar with Justin Marks or James Davison. Marks scores a memorable victory last year in the rain at Mid-Ohio. Outside of that one victory, Marks has not had much documented success in 30 additional starts. In fact, that win at Mid-Ohio is Marks’ only top 5 finish and he really did not take over in that race until the rain tires came out. There are a lot of people that are high on Marks’ chances for Sunday because he looked really good in practices. In fact, the #42 was fastest in practice 1 and 2nd fastest in final practice. Clearly he has shown the ability to post some fast laps and I understand his elevated value at road course. However, I still believe he is overvalued when look at his total body of work. Meanwhile I do not believe that James Davison is overvalued despite making just his 3rd career start in the Xfinity Series. Davison posted a respectable 4th place finish at Mid-Ohio behind the #20 machine for JGR. I believe in the equipment of JGR but I also believe in the driver. Davison has an excellent open wheel background and he got better with each run in practices which tells me he has quickly grasped Road America’s layout. Therefore, I am personally in favor of Davison’s chances on Sunday despite his limited experience in the Xfinity Series.
So to recap, I am high on Justin Allgaier and James Davison primarily going into Sunday. However like I said before, I think several drivers can win this race given the opportunity and track position possibility as this race unfolds into the latter stages. There are several drivers that know how to get around road courses surprisingly well. Brendan Gaughan always runs well in these races and has a win at Road America on his resume from 2014. Brennan Poole has a history of solid runs on road courses including a 3rd place finish in this race last year. Austin Cindric has shown plenty of speed in the #22 car throughout practices and there are more drivers that fall into this category for potential.
For those reasons, I am a little skeptical of taking too many drivers for a large amount of action. I believe this race has so many drivers that could potentially win that you may want to approach this Sunday’s event with a low risk strategy. However, I do not want to leave anyone dry without a dark horse pick. For my dark horse pick and value play in H2Hs, I would go with Cole Custer. Custer has been really strong in road course races despite just a few showings. He was decent at Watkins Glen and got into trouble at Mid-Ohio. However, I think Road America is a better track for him with several 90 degree turns that will put emphasis on braking and corner entry. Custer is one of the better short track and flat track racers in the series which I believe offers some similarities to what is needed to get around Road America. Custer has been solid in practices so I think he has some dark horse potential for the win and even more value in H2H situations!
Lastly, I have not mentioned Christopher Bell’s name but he is making his 3rd Xfinity Series start. Bell is currently a full-time Truck Series driver and leads the series with 4 wins. Bell is scheduled to step into a full-time role in the Xfinity Series next year with Joe Gibbs Racing. In his 2 starts earlier this year, Bell has been excellent with a 4th place finish at Charlotte and a 16th at Iowa. The 16th place finish at Iowa is misleading because he dominated the race by leading 152 laps before he ran into a wreck while leading. Therefore, he has been very impressive in his prior appearances. However, he has not looked good so far this weekend with finishes of 30th and 17th in practice times. Bell has a 5th place finish in the Truck Series at Canadian Tire Motorsports Park in his only road course race but it has been apparent that he has struggled with adapting to the demand of Road America. We know that the #18 is one of the fastest cars in the field so those unsatisfactory practice speeds are solely on the driver. For that reason, I believe Bell may be fade worthy until he returns to the ovals.
2017 Johnsonville 180 Race Predictions
*Check back closer to race time for added plays
Justin Allgaier +650 (1.25 units)
Cole Custer +1800 (.75 unit)
H2H Matchups
James Davison -160 over Christopher Bell (3 units)
Cole Custer +115 over Brennan Poole (2 units)
