2017 ISM Connect 300 Race Predictions

2017 ISM Connect 300 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday September 24th, 2:15PM (EST) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Last week points leader Martin Truex Jr denied any possibilities that he would falter in the Chase by dominating the field at Chicagoland in the Tales of the Turtles 400. The win secured Truex’s advancement into the Round of 12 and helped Truex’s points advantage at the start of each round courtesy of stage wins along with overall victories. On Sunday another driver will have the opportunity to secure their advancement into the Round of 12 as the Cup Series embraces racing at Loudon in the ISM Connect 300. What driver has the best chance to pull out the victory? We discuss everything as we provide our 2017 ISM Connect 300 race predictions!

Last week in the preview for Chicagoland, I discussed the seemingly undeniable advantage the Toyotas have held over the competition in recent weeks. However, last week’s race proved that the true advantage is the #78 team. In another recurring theme, Truex dominated the race especially on long green flag runs. Despite the attention around the Toyotas entering the race, just two Toyota powered cars finished in the top 8 positions. However, Truex absolutely dominated showing lap speeds that just refuse to fall off despite abusive track conditions. It was the 3rd week in a row where Truex had the fastest car on longer runs where the #78 simply refused to give into the critical tire wear conditions that accompanied Darlington, Richmond, and Chicagoland. For whatever reasons, the team simply has it figured out on long runs especially at tracks that cause significant tire wear.

Luckily for the competition, New Hampshire does not have the same level of abrasiveness and tire wear as the tracks we have seen in the last several weeks. On the other hand, New Hampshire Motor Speedway is notorious for producing long green flag runs. Therefore, we will once again have major importance surrounding the cars that can strive deep into long runs and keep the rear tires on the car. Typically the rear grip is the first to give way at New Hampshire which effects driver’s ability to maintain speed with drive off the corners. If you just look at the last few winners at New Hampshire, you will notice one common theme surrounding the likes of Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Matt Kenseth; they are some of the best in NASCAR at taking care of their equipment and sustaining rear grip.

Because of these factors, you can normally never trust practice speeds and 10 lap averages. I have learned several critical aspects of handicapping New Hampshire Motor Speedway and one of the most important is avoiding 10 lap averages. The reason is rather simple but hard to trust. Cars that are usually good for a few laps will not be near as good over the long runs. Speed at New Hampshire really starts to show after about 20 green flag laps. Therefore, I just want to stress the importance of long run speed and to tell everyone to learn from my experience by staying away from 10 lap averages for this race. So what does all of this correlate to for Sunday?

Well for obvious reasons, I am going to back Truex any time that I feel long run speed is important until the #78 team gives me a reason to expect anything less than dominance. I know Truex has never won at Loudon and does not even have the best track record in general. Still, his current form is too good to avoid. Another pair of drivers whose form is simply too good to avoid is both Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson. I feel like we have to talk about the “Big 3” every week because the season has truly been dominated by these 3 drivers. Both Busch and Larson also have an excellent track record at Loudon as well. Busch has two wins and 3 runner-up finishes. Meanwhile Larson already has two runner-up finishes in just 7 career starts including earlier this year in the first race at New Hampshire. Therefore, you have to consider both as threats again on Sunday. For my personal view, I would lean towards Larson over Rowdy by a small margin.

For the rest of the field, we have a lot of veterans with excellent resumes at New Hampshire. Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, and Ryan Newman all have 3 victories in Loudon. Meanwhile Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Clint Bowyer have all scored a pair of victories in Loudon. If you consider a few more drivers that have at least 1 New Hampshire victory, there are plenty of options for backing drivers that are former Loudon race winners. Among all those names, the two drivers whose chances I really like for Sunday are recent winners Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth. Kenseth has won 2 of the last 4 at New Hampshire and I like how the #20 team has been lurking at the front in recent weeks. Kenseth is excellent at long runs at New Hampshire and I believe that is because he takes care of his equipment in the early stages. Harvick is the defending ISM Connect 300 winner and I thought he was excellent in practices on short runs and long runs. Harvick seemed to have everything clicking and if that car does not lose any speed overnight, I think they will be really strong on Sunday.

For the rest of the field, I am not quite sure I have the confidence in most other options. Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski are normally great at New Hampshire yet neither driver’s form is to be admired. Joey Logano missed the entire final practice after being parked by NASCAR due to failing inspection 4 straight times. Last week’s runner-up finisher Chase Elliott failed to impress. Hamlin had speed but they need to improve on the longer runs as their speeds showed more fall off in lap times than most others. I could keep going but just know that nobody really “stood out.”

I always like to leave everyone with a few dark horses or potential H2H plays. If you saw my Xfinity Series preview, my dark horse for the race was Tyler Reddick. Unfortunately, I did not have the kahunas to take Reddick at over 20-1 odds but nevertheless I was on point with that prediction. For Sunday’s ISM Connect 300, I would consider Ryan Blaney the most legitimate dark horse pick and I would throw Daniel Saurez’s name into the mix for H2H/fantasy fliers. I was impressed with Blaney’s speed that was on par with most of the leaders. Blaney has not been great at New Hampshire in the past with finishes of 23rd, 11th, 12th, and 19th in 4 starts. However, he did have the most important thing on Saturday which is “speed.”

2017 ISM Connect 300 Race Predictions

Take advantage of the best odds and unlimited betting options with 5Dimes

Kevin Harvick +1150 (1 unit)
Jimmie Johnson +3000 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Christopher Bell +125 wins UNOH 175
Kyle Larson +445 wins ISM Connect 300
Risking 1.25 units: +1407

Kyle Busch/Denny Hamlin +250 wins ISM Connect 300
Michael McDowell +145 over Danica Patrick
Risking 1.5 units: +1135

H2H Matchups and Props

Daniel Suarez -110 over Jamie McMurray (2 units)
Kyle Busch -145 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Jimmie Johnson +220 wins Group F (Ku. Busch, Logano, and Bowyer) (1 unit)