2017 Hollywood Casino 400 Race Predictions

2017 Hollywood Casino 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 22nd, 3:16PM (EST) at Kansas Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Sunday, the Monster Energy Cup Series will wave the green flag for the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. With just one race remaining in the Round of 12, several of the Cup Series’ biggest stars are in danger of being eliminated from the Chase. Currently Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, and Ryan Blaney are among a few of the names that need strong runs on Sunday to keep their championship hopes alive. Outside of the championship picture, I believe we will see a great race because several drivers have shown promising speed meaning we should see a lot of action at the front of the field. Take a look as we discuss the drivers we expect to be in contention as we provide our 2017 Hollywood Casino 400 race predictions!

Before we discuss drivers that should contend, let’s first set the stage towards the type of race that should unfold on Sunday. Kansas Speedway is a 1.5 mile track but it also differs from the majority of the 1.5 mile tracks on the circuit. Kansas most closely resembles Chicagoland Speedway in terms of banking, layout, and overall surface features. The grip level is strong than Chicagoland due to a repave as recent as mid 2012. However, the track still features mildly significant fall off in speed throughout green flag runs and it is also worth noting that the groove itself tends to move up the track as races progress. What does this mean? Well as we narrow down on towards the checkered flag on Sunday, I expect cars to be running near the wall and long run speed will be the primary focus among race teams.

Obviously any time that we have discussed long run speed and/or 1.5 mile race tracks, Martin Truex Jr’s name has been put at the top of both categories. Truex is having the 2nd best season in NASCAR history by a driver on the 1.5 mile tracks. Truex has averaged a blistering 3.0 average finishing position on the 1.5 mile tracks this season that has resulted in 5 victories. The only driver to beat that mark was Bobby Labonte back in 1999 when he posted a staggering 2.4 average finishing position at the 1.5 mile venues. Therefore, Truex is considered a top play until something changes on these layouts and the fact that he won at Kansas earlier this year only makes his case even stronger for Sunday.

While I do not downgrade Truex’s chances to win on Sunday, I will say this is the first time this season I have seen several drivers near the #78 in terms of overall speed. Typically it has been Truex and maybe 1-2 legitimate challengers on the 1.5 mile surfaces. However, I saw plenty of drivers that were happy with their cars in practices earlier today and also demonstrated plenty of strength on the stopwatches. Among the drivers that stood out included Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, and Kyle Larson. I thought those 4 drivers were very strong. I know you may be thinking well Busch and Larson have been strong everywhere this season. While true, I would argue this is the first time that we had about 5 different drivers nearly mirroring the best lap times for the entire group and that is why I believe we will see a lot of action on Sunday.

Now obviously I am not going to leave anyone hanging with a generalization of the top drivers that I expect to contend tomorrow. If I break down the group above, I really believe this race shapes up nicely for Kyle Larson above everyone else. In fact, I actually like Larson a little better than Truex at this point. I thought Larson’s long run speed was excellent. Also if the groove moves up as expected, Larson should strive. Larson’s overall average at Kansas is not great but that is due to several misfortunes on a short resume. He finished runner-up in this race in 2012 as a rookie and this is a good spot for him to contend. Next in line, I would take a hard look at Kevin Harvick or Kyle Busch. Overall, Rowdy has been the best of everyone outside the #78 team this year. Additionally, Busch was very happy with the #18 car following Happy Hour and that team is in a situation where they desperately need a strong run. Meanwhile, Harvick has looked solid since unloading on Friday. I have been saying for weeks that the #4 team is close to winning again but they just have not close the deal yet. I am sure some will stay away from the #4 car because he has not won on a true oval in over a year. However, that last win came at this race one year ago and I assure you the #4 car has very good speed under the hood to contend again on Sunday.

If you want to pencil in a few dark horses for Sunday, I would consider Ryan Blaney even though I mentioned him earlier. Blaney is receiving generous odds which give the #21 some underdog potential. I would also add Matt Kenseth and Jamie McMurray into that conversation. Kenseth has been strong all weekend which should not be a surprise considering how strong he has run throughout the 2nd half of the season. Kenseth is still winless in 2017 and I assume that is the reason that the #20 is often overlooked. However, the team has been running well and this is one of those races where a driver that takes care of their equipment could come on strong in the latter stages. McMurray on the other hand is more of “Hail Mary” dark horse. McMurray was solid in practices, solid at Charlotte a few weeks ago, solid at Kansas back in May, and most importantly needs a win to keep his Chase hopes alive.

If you are looking for fantasy drivers with potential, consider guys like Erik Jones, Clint Bowyer, Daniel Suarez, and Chris Buescher. Buescher had very strong practices as a bottom tier type of driver. Whether he can back it up on Sunday, remains to be seen. Bowyer is a driver that is similar to Buescher in terms of strong practices but the jury is still out on whether he can back it up with a strong effort in race trim. Meanwhile both Suarez and Jones looked really solid as they continue to benefit off the Toyota power under the hood. I would not be surprised to see both Suarez and Jones hang out around the top 10 on Sunday throughout the afternoon. Both guys offer some upside in betting matchups situations.

Other quick notes: Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano struggled. Hamlin and Elliott are not in bad situations. I just believe both expect to be better than they were on Saturday. Logano was not even close in terms of speed. Jimmie Johnson was trending in the right direction. Meanwhile Daniel Hemric practiced the #27 during the 2nd half of Happy Hour because he is on standby for Paul Menard who is expecting a baby. So for fantasy owners, make sure Menard is a start tomorrow if you are squeezing him into any lineups.

2017 Hollywood Casino 400 Race Predictions

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Jimmie Johnson +2150 (1 unit)
Jamie McMurray +5500 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Kyle Larson/Kevin Harvick +299 wins Hollywood Casino 400
Jamie McMurray +115 over Daniel Suarez
Risking 1.25 units to win: +945

Kyle Busch +420 wins Hollywood Casino 400
Paul Menard -115 over AJ Allmendinger
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1090

H2H Matchups and Props

Jimmie Johnson -115 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Chris Buescher -135 over Aric Almirola (2 units
Landon Cassill -145 over Cole Whitt (2 units)
Matt Kenseth +280 wins Group H (Hamlin, Elliott, Johnson, and Logano)(1 unit)
Chris Buescher +205 wins Group F (Allmendinger, Patrick, and Almirola)(2 units)