2017 Fred’s 250 Race Predictions

2017 Fred’s 250 Race Predictions
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Saturday October 14th, 1:22PM (EST) at Talladega Superspeedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Saturday, the Camping World Truck Series will hit the high banks of Talladega Superspeedway for the running of the annual Fred’s 250. Tomorrow’s race marks the final event in the Round of 8 for the Truck Series Chase meaning two drivers will be eliminated before the Chase continues in two weeks at Martinsville. Talladega has always been the ultimate wild card especially with championship implications on the line. As we prepare for tomorrow’s race and Sunday’s Alabama 500, we take this time to discuss the best betting opportunities as we provide our 2017 Fred’s 250 race predictions!

The main word that everyone should be focused on this weekend is “opportunity.” As handicapping experts, we expect to win from week to week with our predictions. However when restrictor places roll around, we no longer can “expect” to be victories. There are simply too many variables and disparity among the competition at these races for situations to unfold according to expectations. Still, we can be profitable at the restrictor plate tracks if we are capitalizing on the “opportunity” allowed by odds makers. Since restrictor plate racing typically offers some of the best odds of the season, the opportunity is within reach for a big pay day. With these races, we simply must construct lineups that find the best value and maximize our ROI.

For tomorrow’s Fred’s 250, we have the luxury of witnessing the 2nd and last restrictor plate race of the season for the Truck Series. Unlike the Cup and Xfinity Series that has 4 races on the plate tracks, the Camping World Truck Series has just two each year. Back in February, Kaz Grala scored the first win of the season by capturing the checkered flag at Daytona. Ironically, Kaz Grala and John Hunter Nemechek are the two Chase drivers that are currently outside of the top 6 meaning they need some luck to fall their way. Nemechek actually has two victories on the season joining Christopher Bell and Johnny Sauter as the only drivers with multiple wins this year. Therefore if Nemechek is eliminated following tomorrow’s race, it would be highly disappointing considering the expectations that many had for the #8 team at the beginning of the Chase.

For John Hunter Nemechek fans, I don’t have high expectations for him on Saturday. The team has struggled and Nemechek has limited experience on the plate tracks despite being in the series for over 4 years now. Remember Nemechek could not race on the superspeedways his first few years in the series due to the age requirements by NASCAR and he has not been very strong in these races the last two years. I am sure someone wants to point out the fact that JHN finished 4th at Daytona but please remember that just 13 cars finished on the lead lap back in February and several trucks had significant damage. I am not stating Nemechek does not have a chance tomorrow. The beauty of plate racing is that anyone can win these races. I just do not like what I have seen from JHN in the past from his ability in the draft.

When it comes to choosing drivers for plate races, I like to choose drivers that can find their way to the front and can show the ability to stay out front. You can ignore practice speeds all together because lap speeds are influenced completely by the draft. In practices, that is extremely hard to gauge because you have so many factors to consider. Who was drafting together? How many trucks were together? Was it a 2-3 truck pack or a 7-8 truck pack? Therefore, if you are wondering how to select drivers then just focus on the teams that have the horsepower to get out front and make your bets on the actual “drivers”. Just make sure you are getting solid ROI because the risk is elevated at the superspeedways.

For my personal thoughts surrounding Saturday’s drivers that could visit victory lane, obviously I really like Johnny Sauter. I like his current form and he is the best in the field at restrictor plate racing. Sauter has wins at Daytona and Talladega. Not to mention, he has consistently been at the front of the pack in recent races. Aside from Sauter, the conversation becomes more of a guessing game. Grala and Grant Enfinger are the only previous restrictor plate winners in the field. Enfinger won this race last year in surprising yet dominating fashion. Both Grala and Enfinger can be considered at minimum. Some people may throw Matt Crafton’s name out as one of the most experienced drivers in the field. For me, Crafton is always a fade at the restrictor plate tracks considering he has just 2 top 5 finishes in 28 career starts. Sure he can breakthrough on Saturday, but history and probability do not favor the #88 team.

Of course if we are talking about drivers that could potentially win, Christopher Bell is obviously a great choice as potentially the best overall driver in the series combined with arguably the best equipment. Bell is actually getting pretty decent odds for tomorrow’s race at near 8-1 which I think is pretty generous. Chase Briscoe has fell off the radar in recent weeks but do not forget how strong the #29 was back in February. I am personally really high on Briscoe’s chances. I also like the odds on guys like Ben Rhodes, Ryan Truex, and Justin Haley. Rhodes and Truex have really come on strong during the 2nd half of the year. Both drivers are really aggressive and obviously have the horsepower. Meanwhile, I believe Haley is a dark horse pick that will fly under the radar. The #24 truck was fast in February with Scott Lagasse Jr behind the wheel and the truck looked fast by itself in single lap speed in Friday’s practices. Therefore, I think everyone should consider some of these young guys for your lineup considering the advantageous odds being offered.

2017 Fred’s 250 Race Predictions

Take advantage of the best restrictor plate odds with 5Dimes

Chase Briscoe +850 (1 unit)
Ryan Truex +1250 (1 unit)
Ben Rhodes +1450 (.5 unit)
Justin Haley +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Matchups

Johnny Sauter -115 over Christopher Bell (2 units)