2017 Ford EcoBoost 300 Race Predictions

2017 Ford EcoBoost 300 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday November 18th, 3:46PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Last night Christopher Bell capped off a dominant season by winning the Camping World Truck Series Championship with a runner-up finish to first time winner Chase Briscoe in the Ford EcoBoost 200. All four of the championship drivers finished in the top 6 positions in what turned out to be a very entertaining race for the championship. Today the championship drama carries over to the Xfinity Series with the running of the Ford EcoBoost 300. Another four drivers are set to battle it out over 300 miles for the championship and we take this time to provide our thoughts on how everything will unfold. Take a look as we provide our 2017 Ford EcoBoost 300 race predictions!

For a quick championship synopsis, the “Championship 4” includes 3 JR. Motorsports drivers between William Byron, Justin Allgaier and Elliott Sadler. The only driver not in the JR. Motorsports brigade is rookie Daniel Hemric who has to be considered a huge underdog. Sadler and Hemric have stayed alive through points this season. Neither driver has been able to win this year which is the main reason both are considered pretty sizable underdogs this afternoon. Meanwhile, Justin Allgaier has scored 2 wins while William Byron leads all Xfinity Series full-time drivers with 4 victories.

Before last week, Byron had largely underperformed throughout the Chase but his win at Phoenix proves that he is the perceived driver to beat once again. If Byron was to get the job done, it would poetic justice on the heels of last year’s Truck Series heartbreak. For those that remember, Byron torched the Truck Series last year with the greatest rookie season in history with 7 victories. However, Byron blew an engine with just 12 laps to go at Phoenix which knocked him out of the playoffs. A week later the rookie scored a bittersweet win in the finale at Homestead but the championship went to Johnny Sauter. Today Byron has a chance to reclaim what was lost a season ago.

On Friday, Byron looked very strong in terms of lap speeds in practices. The #9 car topped the charts in final practice and has consecutive laps looked solid as well. He is showing on the bottom of 10 lap averages but that is because the #9 kept the same tires on throughout the entire session when he ran those laps. As usual, lap speeds on paper can be misleading. However, rest assured Byron was the best of the championship drivers and arguably the best of anyone for that matter.

If you are going to handicap a track like Homestead, please do not make the mistake of looking at single lap speeds. I know people will probably think drivers like Allgaier, Sadler, and Hemric have limited chances because they were outside the top 10 in fast times. However, I assure you those teams were working on race trim setups which is most critical at Homestead due to the significant falloff in lap times due to tire wear. Due to other handicapping similarities with surface structure, tire notes, and similar setups, I expect both Sadler and Allgaier to be upfront regardless of what lap times may have suggested.

Of course I do not want to spend all our time talking about the championship drivers especially since we have so many other talented drivers showing on the entry list. Part-time fill-ins like Christopher Bell, Sam Hornish Jr, Ryan Preece, and Tyler Reddick will all be in action. Amazingly all 4 of those drivers have scored wins this year. With so many young talented drivers, this race becomes harder to know exactly what to expect. Still, I feel like Bell and Reddick have the best opportunities to spoil the show. Bell is simply a natural and has the luxury of piloting the fastest car in the series by way of the #20 machine. Meanwhile, Reddick and the #42 have been getting the job done in recent starts with a win at Kentucky and runner-up at Kansas in his last 2 starts on the 1.5 mile surfaces. I feel like the runner-up at Kansas is relatable because of the groove similarities that Kansas shares with Homestead. Therefore, I think Reddick’s value is elevated once again.

Reddick should also bring bettors value in H2H situations as well. Reddick and Cole Custer may be two of the best values on the board in terms of matchups. Custer is one of the most underrated weekly value plays with top 10 finishes in 9 of his last 11 races. If you go back to Chicagoland which I like to compare with Homestead because it shares setup and tire similarities, Custer piloted the #00 to a 7th place finish and led 41 laps. On Friday, Custer was once again fast with the best 10 lap average in Happy Hour. Therefore, I would keep the #00 on your dark horse radar.

2017 Ford EcoBoost 300 Race Predictions

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Tyler Reddick +750 (1.25 units)
Elliott Sadler +1500(1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +2000 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Christopher Bell +575 wins Ford EcoBoost 300
Team 2 – Open
Risking .75 unit to win: TBD

H2H Matchups

Christopher Bell -140 over Ryan Preece (3 units)
Daniel Hemric -160 over Matt Tift (2 units)
Elliott Sadler +160 over William Byron (1 unit)