2017 Food City 500 Race Picks

2017 Food City 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday April 23rd, 2:13PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Sunday, NASCAR’s Monster Energy Cup Series will drop the green flag at one of the most exciting venues on the circuit with the running of the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway. Nothing beats short track racing on the high banks of Bristol Motor Speedway and the drama that typically coincides with this style of racing. As we anticipate tomorrow’s race that is bound to feature excitement and drama, Mother Nature may have different plans as rain is expected throughout the day on Sunday. Find out our thoughts for tomorrow’s event and take a look at our 2017 Food City 500 race picks!

Unfortunately tomorrow’s forecast does not look promising for the folks hoping we will get to see this race on Sunday. Rain is expected in the Bristol area all day on Sunday. It is highly doubtful this race will start on time and perhaps the chances of seeing any racing tomorrow is rather faint. However, we did have similar concerns earlier today for the Xfinity Series race and luckily Mother Nature cooperated. We hope the same scenario will transpire on Sunday and we get to see some green flag racing. However, I just want to warn everyone that the chances do not appear favorable.

Whether this race is run on time, Sunday night, or even on Monday, we still feel like we have a good chance to cash a winning ticket. More importantly I believe the chances of a big payday are possible this week as well. The reason is because there have been several drivers that have looked really good this week that are not your typical “names” that we would give much of a thought to in terms of a winning possibility. I do not normally lead out my previews talking about sleepers but I think we need to spark that discussion right away. Despite popular belief, Bristol is a place where we can see a surprise winner especially if a driver can capitalize on track position late in the race. Passing is pretty difficult and track position will be extremely important throughout tomorrow’s race. Therefore, do not be afraid to add a few drivers that could stay in good position tomorrow and make a run at a victory even if they are not the “popular” picks.

A few drivers that I really like that fit right into that category include guys like Clint Bowyer, Kasey Kahne, and Erik Jones. Bowyer has a very impressive Bristol resume that includes 6 top 5 finishes and even an 8th place in this race last year for HScott Motorsports. Last year’s 8th place finish was very impressive considering the quality of equipment Bowyer was piloting and everyone is aware that he is in much better equipment this year. Bowyer and the #14 team appear to be gaining some steam as they currently sit 9th in the standings on the heels of several quality performances. Consider Bowyer’s history at Bristol and current momentum, I think he has the potential for another great afternoon.

Erik Jones and Kasey Kahne are also guys to watch based off their strong practice sessions on Saturday. I know the thought of backing a rookie at Bristol seems fairly insane but Jones is not an average rookie. He has been strong in everything he has driven and has shown the ability to run upfront already this year. I thought the #77 had their two best practice sessions of the year on Saturday so I would keep that team on your radar. Kahne was also in a similar situation where the #5 team had excellent speed in Saturday’s sessions. Kahne has a 2013 Bristol win on his resume so he knows how to get around the high banked half-mile. The problem for the #5 team has been converting the speed into finishes. One thing for certain is the team has speed once again this week. Now they just need the finish to show for it!

Outside of the dark horses, I would list Kyle Busch and Joey Logano as my favorites going into Sunday. Obviously Busch does not need much convincing, he holds the most wins at Bristol throughout all NASCAR series’ and is a 5 time winner in the Cup Series. In recent years, Rowdy has run into bad luck which have diluted some of his runs. Despite leading the most laps in 2 of the last 3 races, he has also wrecked in 3 of the last 4 races to finish 36th or worse.

Busch will be the first to admit that most of his success at Bristol came before the repave in 2012 which saw the preferred groove go from the bottom of the track to the top. I think that fact is overplayed a bit because Busch has still been one of the best drivers each year in terms of average running position. He has just had bad finishes that have overshadowed his strong runs. Make no mistake about it, he remains the best driver at Bristol Motor Speedway and it is only a matter of time before he returns to victory lane. Therefore, I will never discourage anyone that wants to back the #18 at Thunder Valley.

Joey Logano is another driver that I feel like may be flying under the radar a bit this week. Logano has 2 wins in the last 5 races at Bristol and finished 10th in both races in 2016. He has been fast throughout practices and I don’t think he is getting the credit he deserves. I have come to learn that the #22 team does not impress often in terms of raw speed in practices but they usually have the car right when the green flag waves. I feel like that is another likely scenario that will play out on Sunday.

Among other drivers to keep on the radar include Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and Kurt Busch. All of those drivers have performed very well under this new rules package excluding the elder Busch. Considering that fact, you could also throw Brad Keselowski into the mix because he has clearly been the best under this new aero package. However, Keselowski has not had much success since the 2012 repave at Bristol and the aero package does not have the same impact at the shorter tracks as it does the intermediate to larger sized tracks.

Instead, I think guys like Larson and Elliott remain convincing threats. Both drivers can run the high groove very well and that is obviously where the speed is on the track. Harvick’s team made significant gains throughout each practice but I am not convinced they have a winner quite yet. Kurt Busch is a guy that I think you have to give a certain level of attention to considering he is tied with younger brother Kyle for the most wins (5) among active drivers. Kurt has not run very well since his big victory in the Daytona 500 but this is a track where his talent cannot be overlooked.

Busch finished 3rd in this race one year ago and he has shown some solid speed thus far throughout practices. As I stated earlier, there are several drivers that are capable of winning that are receiving extremely generous odds. Currently, Kurt Busch is in that situation as he currently sits at 40 to 1 odds which is an overwhelming amount of value for a 5 time winner. Therefore, do not be afraid to take a few guys with really strong odds because if one of those numbers hits, it could make your entire season!

2017 Food City 500 Race Picks

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Joey Logano +850 (1.25 units): won 2 of the last 5 Bristol races, strong practices on Saturday, looks good
Denny Hamlin +1600 (1 unit): 2012 winner, 3rd place finishes in 2 of last 3, great value after decent practices on Saturday.
Erik Jones +2800 (.5 unit): had best practices of the year, has short track talent, and generous odds to make you believe it is possible!
Clint Bowyer +3000 (.5 unit): historically one of his best tracks and has been showing a lot of speed in recent weeks
Kurt Busch 4500 (.5 unit): 5-time winner, decent practices, value outweighs the speed

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch +350 wins Food City 500
Clint Bowyer +100 over Denny Hamlin
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1000

H2H Matchups and Props

Clint Bowyer +100 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Erik Jones -130 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Landon Cassill -145 over Cole Whitt (2 units)
Kasey Kahne +1250 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Clint Bowyer +950 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +850 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)