2017 Food City 300 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Friday August 18th, 7:46PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The 2nd race of the weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway will take place later tonight when the Xfinity Series takes the green flag for the Food City 300. Several Monster Energy Cup Series drivers will be in participation tonight including Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Austin Dillon, Daniel Suarez, Aric Almirola, and yes even Dale Earnhardt Jr will be in action this evening! However, most of the focus surrounds Kyle Busch who scored the win in the Truck Series Wednesday and is going for the 2nd leg of the weekend sweep. Find out who we feel should find their way to victory lane for tonight’s race and also a few potential surprise predictions as we present our 2017 Food City 300 race predictions!
Kyle Busch’s Truck Series win on Wednesday was his 18th victory at Bristol throughout all of NASCAR’s touring series. However, the bulk of Rowdy’s victories have come right here in the Xfinity Series where he owns 8 victories at Bristol including 7 of the last 12. Busch’s victory on Wednesday was incredible considering he drove from 17th to 1st under green over the last restart. He made the high lane work despite the traction compound that has been placed at the bottom of the track. Obviously the competition will be much greater tonight but Busch is still the man to beat. He has been very fast in every practice and I believe he found something in the track that will be useful again this evening. Busch did not run many consecutive laps in practices but was reportedly very happy with the racecar which is scary for the competition.
Outside of Busch, I originally thought that Joey Logano would be Rowdy’s biggest challenger heading into tonight’s race. However, I must admit that I was unimpressed with Logano’s practice speeds. He did finish 2nd in the final practice but the #22 car had a pretty significant amount of falloff in lap speed. If you consider how long green flag runs can extend at Bristol even in stage formats, the falloff in lap speed was definitely alarming. Logano has a solid track history at Bristol with two victories in both the Xfinity and Cup Series’. Therefore, I would not count out the #22 but I just wish I would have seen more strong indicators in terms of race trim.
For the rest of the field, I was not overly impressed with any of the other Cup Series drivers. Dale Earnhardt Jr and Austin Dillon are former Xfinity Series winners. Junior looked pretty average which is how most of his Xfinity Series starts have went in recent years. Earnhardt has just 1 victory, coming via Richmond, in his last 22 starts in the Xfinity Series. However, it would be negligent of me if I did not mention the fact that Earnhardt has been pretty solid at Bristol in the Xfinity Series finishing 7th or better in his last 8 starts. Still with that being said, I did not see anyone that had a “winner” in my opinion from the rest of the Cup Series stars participating this evening.
Instead, I feel like there could be an opportunity for the Xfinity Series regulars to steal the show. Busch is the only driver that truly looks dominate, in my opinion, so if something happens to him then the door is fairly open. If that happens, guys like Justin Allgaier and Elliott Sadler should be given some serious attention. Allgaier has a pretty impressive Bristol resume that includes a 2010 victory and 5 top 5 finishes in 13 career starts. Allgaier finished in the runner-up position in this race just a year ago and he has been very impressive throughout practices. In fact, the #7 car has arguably looked the best of anyone outside of Kyle Busch. Based on the odds that are influenced by the amount of Cup Series talent, I feel like Allgaier is a very sharp prediction. On the other hand, teammate Elliott Sadler would be more of a dark horse prediction. Sadler is a two-time Bristol winner and has posted 4th place outings in his last two starts including earlier this April. Sadler was another driver that stood out in terms of consistency in lap times. Considering he is usually better in race conditions than practices anyway, Sadler is showing signs that he could also contend.
Among more notable observations and research, I would put a fade alet on Matt Tift. No disrespect to Tift but I am not a big believer in his talent but most importantly Bristol does not fit his driving style. Tift has been pretty awful at the short tracks whereas he performs much better on the bigger tracks where he can showcase that JGR horsepower. I expect Tift to qualify relatively well because of the single lap speed in the car but to fall back in race conditions. Therefore, I think Tift is completely fade worthy in tonight’s race. On the contrary, I believe Daniel Hemric has some hidden value that could be beneficial in H2H matchups. Hemric scored an impressive 5th place finish in his first Bristol start in the Xfinity Series back in April and he has been pretty solid with lap times yet again this week. He is a guy that is flying under the radar that likely does not have any “winning” value but has significant H2H value.
2017 Food City 300 Race Predictions
Joey Logano +450 (1.5 units)
Justin Allgaier +850 (1.25 units)
Daniel Suarez +1500 (1 unit)
H2H Matchups
Justin Allgaier -140 over Dale Earnhardt Jr (2 units)
Daniel Hemric -105 over Cole Custer (2 units)
Tyler Reddick -125 over Matt Tift (2 units)
