2017 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Race Predictions

2017 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 5th, 2:46PM (EST) at Atlanta Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

In many ways last week’s Daytona 500 lived up to the wild, exciting and yet chaotic image of NASCAR’s new title sponsor. Now, the Monster Energy Cup Series moves to Atlanta this Sunday for the running of the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. Fortunately, restrictor plate racing and it’s unpredictable nature is in our rear view mirror. As I have claimed previously, the “real” handicapping begins this weekend at one of the most exciting 1.5 mile tracks on the circuit via Atlanta Motor Speedway. Tire fall off, tire management, and racing grooves from the bottom to the outside wall are just a few of the byproducts of the racing that will be seen tomorrow afternoon. Follow us as we take a look at tomorrow’s race and provide our 2017 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 race predictions!

If you just follow my picks and do not keep up with NASCAR as much others, then it is important to understand the type of racing that you will see on Sunday. Atlanta Motor Speedway has one of the most rugged surfaces of any track in NASCAR meaning tire wear will be extravagant throughout each set of green flag runs. In fact in practices this weekend, we saw as much as a 3 second fall off in terms of lap speed from the beginning to the end of a single tire run. Therefore, do not pay much attention to single lap speed from practices and understand that the drivers that can manage their tires/equipment will definitely prevail ahead of others on Sunday.

Jimmie Johnson has bested the field by winning the last two Atlanta races. Last year’s victory was a product of a great call by crew chief Chad Knaus to short pit on the final pitstop. The call to short pit put Johnson out front and he was able to hold off Kevin Harvick and Dale Earnhardt Jr in the closing laps. Ironically it was not tire management that won the race for the #48 team but rather the call from the pit box for a pitting strategy that optimized the best of the tire window. Either way both of those components will be extremely important for tomorrow’s race whether it is a call on pit road or simply managing tires on the track, tires will be the theme throughout tomorrow’s event.

Currently, Johnson is listed at 8-1 odds at Bovada which is very generous for a guy that has won back to back races. Meanwhile, Kevin Harvick is showing as the overall favorite as of Saturday afternoon. Harvick has had a lot of success at Atlanta in recent years but just has failed to capture a victory. Harvick scored his first career win at Atlanta in that memorable race back in 2001 but has been winless since. Happy has led the most laps in each of the last 3 Atlanta races but just has not been able to put that machine in victory lane. I had some concerns surrounding the Stewart-Haas Racing cars going into the season. However after last week’s SHR win by Kurt Busch in the 500, Harvick’s pole win on Friday, and a strong outing by the SHR Xfinity teams on Saturday, I believe I have cleared any concern. Also considering Harvick’s knack for running the bottom lane and managing tires, he remains a high probable pick for tomorrow’s victory despite the short odds.

The good news is that there are several drivers outside of Johnson and Harvick that show valuable ROI. One of my favorite picks going into Sunday that is flying under the radar is Brad Keselowski. Keselowski has not had the best success at Atlanta averaging a measly 20.3 finishing position in 8 career starts. However, I personally thought Keselowski looked better than anyone in practices and his personal comments about the car seemed to validate that statement as he was very happy with the car. Therefore, I believe Keselowski is a driver to keep in mind.

Another guy that will probably have more attention is Dale Earnhardt Jr. Earnhardt has posted finishes of 2nd and 3rd over the last two years. I watched the #88 pretty closely through Saturday’s final practice. The team has battled with front downforce issues since they unloaded but they have improved with each change by Greg Ives and company. Earnhardt was not really happy with the take off from the #88 car but he was pretty fast on long run speed. In fact, Earnhardt had the 2nd best 10 lap average in final practice behind Ryan Newman. Therefore I feel like if the team can keep gaining with a few more changes, they could definitely be in the hunt on Sunday.

There are several more drivers that have looked solid throughout this weekend’s festivities that deserve some attention. Last week’s Daytona 500 winner Kurt Busch has been solid. Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott appear to have cars capable of contending. However, I have been more surprised by guys like Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr this weekend. Those drivers are normally mid-pack competitors but have been among the leaders throughout practices this weekend. Newman actually qualified on the front row alongside Harvick. All 3 drivers were inside the top 5 in terms of 10 lap averages in final practice. Even though those laps were posted early in Saturday’s practice, it was still impressive nevertheless. If you are looking for a fantasy dark horse that could yield a quality finish, McMurray and Newman may be two of your better options.

With everything being said, I still think there is a lot to learn from teams this weekend. Martin Truex Jr dominated on the 1.5 mile tracks last year but has not looked very fast thus far this weekend. Rookies Erik Jones and Daniel Suarez have not looked good. I expected pretty fast learning curves from both of those guys based on their talent. However, they have not looked good from my perspective. I also expected Clint Bowyer to jump out and run towards the front in Tony Stewart’s former ride yet the #14 has not looked very good either. Of course all that could be just a product of practice speeds which again do not hold a lot of weight for a place like Atlanta but I assume time will tell the true story. Therefore, we will keep an eye on some of the unknown variables as we move forward. For everything else, take a look at our 2017 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 race predictions!

Odds courtesy of 5Dimes!

2017 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Race Predictions

Brad Keselowski +850 (1.25 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1500 (1 unit)
Kyle Larson +1600 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Harvick/Kyle Busch +305 wins Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500
Ryan Newman -105 over Ryan Blaney
Risking 1.25 units to win: +865

H2H Matcups and Props

Kevin Harvick -130 over Jimmie Johnson (3 units)
Brad Keselowski -125 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Kasey Kahne -125 over Erik Jones (2 units)