2017 FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Predictions

2017 FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday June 18th, 3:16PM (EST) at Michigan International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Monster Energy Cup Series will be unleashed onto Michigan International Speedway on Sunday for the running of the FireKeepers Casino 400. As a NASCAR fan and sports bettor, I am always excited for racing each week as I get to bet on my favorite sport. The pure betting action alone can make NASCAR racing intense from lap to lap. However, the overwhelming excitement I have entering Sunday’s 400 mile race surrounds one word “speed.” Michigan is home to one of the fastest tracks in NASCAR and drivers will sail off into the turns at over 210 mph when the green flag is waved for some high speed racing. So as we get ready for some intense racing at unprecedented speeds for stock cars, I wanted to also take this time to provide my handicapping thoughts with our 2017 FireKeepers Casino 400 race predictions!

Obviously speed will be a big factor in tomorrow’s FireKeepers Casino 400 but there will be other important factors that will likely come into play surrounding “strategy.” Michigan International Speedway has historically been a fuel mileage race track. Any time you have a big racetrack that produces very fast speeds, strategy can come into play. Additionally, track position will be very important because it is tough to make up ground with so many cars running similar lap times at high speeds. Therefore, you can expect tomorrow’s race to be filled with strategy calls on pit road whether it is to gamble on tires or to gamble with fuel mileage in order to optimize track position. Nobody currently knows what the winning call will be but rest assured there will be several different teams trying different strategies over the course of 400 miles on Sunday.

Outside of the unpredictable influence of strategy, we can only do our best to pick the fastest cars, most valuable odds, and perhaps consider some of the best teams that can put everything together to earn a trip to victory lane. With that being said, good luck guessing who is going to be the best when the green flag waves. After 3 practices this weekend, I am here to tell everyone that 8-10 drivers have the raw speed to win tomorrow’s race. Hell I would say 15-20 can possibly win if strategy comes into play like we have seen on several occasions this year like we saw at Phoenix and Charlotte. So from a handicapping and smart betting perspective, I would approach Sunday’s event with a low risk strategy in hopes we nail our picks and get a little lucky that things unfold our way.

Obviously guys like Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr, and Kyle Busch should be at the top of everyone’s list. Those 4 drivers have been the class of the field throughout the 2017 season and they have all looked very strong throughout sessions this week. Larson won the pole for tomorrow’s race, was fastest in practice 1, and posted the best 10 lap average in Happy Hour. Keselowski has the best average finish among all drivers with more than 2 starts at Michigan with a 7.4 average finish over his last 10 starts. Not to mention, Keselowski has 2 victories this season under this package and the most victories overall since this new package unveiled in 2016.

Meanwhile, Martin Truex Jr has been the best at the 1.5 mile tracks this season and has arguably had the most raw “speed” on all of the ovals this season. Like Keselowski, Truex also has 2 victories for the season. Lastly, Kyle Busch has been knocking on the door for several weeks now in search of his first victory on the year. Busch has been bringing fast cars to the track for the last 5 races but has just not been able to put everything together in a complete performance from both driver and team. However, the #18 is very close and they have only been getting better from week to week. Also if you consider the fact that all 4 drivers that I mentioned above have dominated the speed charts throughout practices this weekend, then we have a strong indication they are all capable of taking down the checkered flag on Sunday.

Behind the top 4, there are still several other drivers that could potentially get the victory. I think we have learned by now that you can never count out the #48. Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with 3 victories this year. Despite the fact they will be starting from the back in a backup car and did not show a great amount of speed, I still would not rule him completely out. On the other hand, I believe guys like Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano fall into the next group of “threats” to consider for Sunday. Harvick has posted 5 runner-up finishes in his last 8 starts at Michigan and always runs very well at this fast 2 mile track. The #4 team has been showing great speed in recent weeks and I am very surprised they have yet to score a victory. Tomorrow will be a great chance for that team to finally get the job done.

Unlike Harvick, Joey Logano has not shown much speed at all in recent weeks and has struggled rather significantly. At one point this season, Logano had rattled off 5 straight top 5 finishes that was capped off with a victory at Richmond. Since then, he has not posted a top 20 finish in his last 5 races. The good news for Logano fans is that they have unloaded very fast this weekend. In fact, both Team Penske cars have looked very fast since unloading off the truck on Friday. I know most people will be giving Keselowski the most attention for tomorrow’s race but I really feel like Logano is the dark horse that is under valued which is a direct result towards his recent finishes. However, I think the #22 has a lot of value and the speed looks to be back in the car.

There are a number of other drivers that possibly deserve some consideration for Sunday. Ryan Blaney has run very well this season and scored his first victory of the season last week at Pocono. Blaney definitely has the potential to post another quality showing and the #21 team has never lacked speed this season. Chase Elliott finished runner-up in both Michigan races in 2016 and crew chief Alan Gustafson has a great resume at Michigan. Additionally Matt Kenseth and Kurt Busch are both 3 time winners at Michigan. However, I never saw the speed or consistency from any of those drivers to speculate they will drive their way to a victory on Sunday. Now I am not saying that those drivers cannot win on Sunday. I just do not like what I have seen thus far to considerable them “probable” threats.

However, I will not leave everyone without a few dark horse predictions whether it is for fantasy or betting purposes. One driver that I believe will completely fly under most people’s radar entering Sunday’s event is Denny Hamlin. With all due respect, Hamlin has had somewhat of a forgettable season throughout 2017 to this point. Still, the JGR cars have found speed in recent weeks. While Kyle Busch has displayed the group’s newfound speed more than any others, the entire JGR brigade has been strong including Hamlin who has posted finishes of 5th, 8th, and 12th in his last 3 starts. Hamlin has not shown the single lap speed that some of the top drivers have shown this week but he has shown long run speed that has been as good as anyone. Therefore, I feel like the #11 is on the verge of a sneaky promising performance.

Another driver that I feel like has the chance to break through for a strong performance is Dale Earnhardt Jr. I know it nearly pains me to write Dale Jr’s name considering how awful his season has been. Just look back to last week, the #88 had one of his best cars of the season and Earnhardt blew his transmission from putting the car into the wrong gear while shifting in a situation that was completely “driver error.” I mean this is a team that has not been close throughout the majority of 2017 with just 2 top 10 finishes and yet I think they can turn things around on Sunday. For whatever reason, I just have the feeling that Sunday will be the day this team finally gets the finish they need. Earnhardt has been really solid throughout practices and obviously that is important. The car is handling well and has some serious speed. Now I am not saying that I expect Dale Jr to win tomorrow’s race in an event that would reignite JR Nation for another Michigan miracle. However, I do think Earnhardt can get a top 10 finish which likely means he would win most match-up situations and possibly bring some value to most fantasy lineups.

2017 FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Predictions

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Brad Keselowski +700 (1.25 units): top 5 finishes in last 2 Michigan starts, 6 straight top 10 finishes, and had great speed in practices
Joey Logano +1300 (1 unit): 2 Michigan wins including 8 straight top 10 finishes at MIS, #22 has been fast throughout every session this weekend and the driver really likes this track!
Denny Hamlin +2000 (1 unit): 2 Michigan wins, dark horse play that is starting to emerge with speed, winner of Saturday’s Irish Hills 250

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch/Kevin Harvick +323 FireKeepers Casino 400
Erik Jones +135 over Ryan Blaney
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1117

H2H Matchups

Joey Logano -110 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Denny Hamlin -130 over Matt Kenseth (2 units)
Paul Menard -125 over Ty Dillon (2 units)
Erik Jones +475 finishes Top 5
Dale Earnhardt Jr +830 finishes Top 5