2017 Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Predictions

2017 Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday September 9th, 7:43PM (EST) at Richmond International Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Tonight the Monster Energy Cup Series will wave the final green flag of the regular seasons with the running of the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Currently 13 drivers have secured their spot in the Chase for the Cup while Matt Kenseth, Chase Elliott, and Jamie McMurray currently occupy the remaining 3 spots on points. However, tonight’s race at Richmond provides one final opportunity for a driver to race his way into the playoffs with a victory. Surprisingly guys like Erik Jones, Joey Logano, Clint Bowyer, Daniel Suarez, and Dale Earnhardt Jr will need a victory tonight or their playoff chances are over. Take a look as we breakdown the drivers who have the best opportunity to visit victory lane as we provide our 2017 Federated Auto Parts 400 race predictions!

Last week we witnessed a wild finish at Darlington as Martin Truex Jr attempted to stretch his fuel and Denny Hamlin run him down on newer tires to score the victory. While most will remember the finish, let’s not forget what caused that dramatic ending. I am talking about “tires.” Darlington’s surface is notorious for tire wear and we witnessed all throughout the night teams strategizing for the best tire management scenarios. Richmond International Raceway is not notorious for tire wear like Darlington but I think we will see several similarities when the green flag waves later this evening. Richmond was last repaved in 2004 and in recent years the track has aged significantly. As a result, tire wear has become a big focal point at Richmond and we will see similar strategy calls as we did last week at Darlington to ensure teams are maximizing the “good” of their tires.

Any time that tire wear becomes a big focal point in a race, I believe that opens the door for possibilities. Last week Martin Truex Jr clearly had the dominate car but ultimately the wrong pit strategy cost them the race. Denny Hamlin even missed pit road and was still able to win the race. Therefore, the window of opportunity does open more for drivers willing to shake things up with pit strategy and potentially roll the dice. Given the situation with drivers needing a win to advance, I think we could easily see some really big Hail Mary attempts at a victory under opportunistic late race scenarios. The point I am trying to make is that tonight’s race will undoubtedly take some twist and turns that will be hard to predict. Therefore, I may advise approaching tonight’s event with a low risk strategy.

If things go according to plan, everyone will likely be trailing the Toyotas yet again this evening. On Friday, Matt Kenseth won the Coors’ Light Pole Award and will lead the field to the green flag. Kenseth is a two-time Richmond winner. Meanwhile teammates Kyle Busch (4) and Denny Hamlin (3) have 7 combined Richmond victories. Considering the way the Toyotas have run this season, I think those guys are in perfect positions to strive yet again. You also have to add Martin Truex’s name to the mix even though he has never scored a victory at Richmond. Still, Truex’s current form poses a threat for winning anywhere. In final practice, Truex and Busch were 1-2 in 10 lap averages and that is nearly the way they have run for the last several weeks against the competition. I would probably lean towards Busch as the overall favorite given his form and track record at Richmond. However, the entire Toyota brigade should be strong yet again.

While I am sure mostly everyone would agree that Hamlin, Kenseth, Busch, and Truex are worthy picks tonight, I have a sneaky feeling that the winner will come outside of that group this evening. I have my eye on guys like Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Kevin Harvick to pull off a mild upset. Harvick is a 3-time winner at Richmond and has been performing well. I also like his skillset on tracks where lap speeds fall off significantly over the course of green flag runs. Happy also looked rock solid in practices which simply adds to his value. Meanwhile teammates Keselowski and Logano need a good run. Logano’s only win of the year come at Richmond in the spring race but that win was encumbered after the #22 failed post race inspection. At that time, I do not think anyone would have expected Logano to struggle for the remainder of the year but that is exactly what has happened. The #22 team has to score a victory tonight to make the Chase.

Logano nor Keselowski has been strong consistently in the last few months. However, Team Penske’s short track program is still pretty solid which offers the opportunity. Both cars looked strong in Friday’s practices and were in the top 5 in 10 lap averages. I personally thought Keselowski was the better of the two but Logano does have the edge in victories over Keselowski 2 to 1 at Richmond. Another Ford driver that may be worth consideration is Kurt Busch. Busch is a two-time Richmond winner and had a really good run last week at Darlington in relatable tire conditions. I feel like the #41 team is starting to come together and they have posted back to back top 5 finishes. I think you would have to be bold to pull the trigger on the elder Busch for the win but he may bring some value in H2H situations as well.

A few guys that you may be wondering about that I have not mentioned is Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney. Both cars were decent in practices and Larson posted the fastest lap in final practice. However, I am not eager to take either driver this week. Blaney has not been performing well and has really struggled at Richmond. Even Larson has struggled significantly at Richmond with finishes of 9th, 17th, 42nd, 24th, 29th, and 6th in 6 career starts. I have the upmost respect for Larson’s talent but he does struggle at tracks with high degree of tire fall off and he typically struggles in the latter stages of the races. With that being said, I feel like both the #42 and #21 are fade material going into tonight’s race because you can find really good drivers that are paired against them.

Lastly if you are looking for some potential H2H dark horses or potential fantasy plays, I do like Daniel Suarez because of the Toyota speed and his ability to take car of the car. However, I think you may find bigger dark horses in the form of Trevor Bayne and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Stenhouse has an excellent track record at Richmond and actual leads all drivers with a 11.7 averaging finishing position. Stenhouse has been solid in every practice session and he typically races well at short tracks. I would also not look past Trevor Bayne in terms of fantasy projections. Bayne is one of those low salary guys that has a great possibility of finishing inside the top 20. He has raced really well at Richmond in recent trips and may be a steal in terms of value.

2017 Virginia 529 College Savings 250 Race Predictions

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Kevin Harvick +850 (1.25 units)
Brad Keselowski +900 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Martin Truex Jr +485 wins Federated Auto Parts 400
Jimmie Johnson +115 over Chase Elliott
Risking 1 unit to win: +1150

H2H Matchups

Kevin Harvick -115 over Kyle Larson (2 units)
Erik Jones -140 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Daniel Suarez -125 over Dale Earnhardt Jr (2 units)
Joey Logano +415 wins Group C (Kenseth, Larson, Elliott, and Johnson)