2017 Drive Sober 200 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday September 30th, 3:15PM (EST) at Dover International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
On Saturday, NASCAR will present another double header between the Xfinity Series and the Camping World Truck Series. While the Truck Series will take the primetime spot at Las Vegas tomorrow night, the Xfinity Series will kick things off at Dover International Speedway in the early afternoon with the running of the Drive Sober 200. Last week, Tyler Reddick stole the Xfinity Series stage with a surprising yet dominating win at Kentucky Speedway. I had Reddick on my dark horse list in our preview but failed to pull the trigger on backing him at generous odds. Tomorrow we hope to nail all the right selections as we discuss the best drivers to watch and provide our 2017 Drive Sober 200 race predictions!
Last year, Daniel Suarez surprised many onlookers when he won the 2016 version of the Drive Sober 200. Suarez was not considered a favorite going into the race but pulled out the impressive victory which accelerated him towards his championship run. Tomorrow Suarez will accompany the likes of Erik Jones, Ryan Blaney, Ty Dillon, and Austin Dillon from the Monster Energy Cup Series as participants in the Drive Sober 200. Each driver meets NASCAR’s rule surrounding drivers with less than 5 years of Cup Series experience who can participate in the Xfinity Series’ Chase races. Therefore with so many Cup Series drivers participating it definitely lessens the likelihood we will see a true upset winner like we did a week ago with Tyler Reddick at Kentucky.
With that being stated, I would not rule out a “surprise” winner completely. When so many Cup Series stars are participating, we are quick to forfeit the chances of the Xfinity Series’ regulars. However, let’s not forget that the pressure is on these Xfinity Series drivers to be at their very best for the Chase. Not only is it important for the Chase drivers to run well but a win guarantees their advancement into the next round which is reason to take chances. Additionally, Xfinity Series regulars won 3 of the 7 races in the Chase last year surrounded by Cup Series talent. As a result, we cannot overlook their chances for the next few weeks.
On Friday, I was impressed with the speed from both Justin Allgaier and William Byron among the Xfinity Series Chase drivers. To nobody’s surprise, Allgaier has been strong on all the surfaces of 1 mile or less this season. However, the entire JR Motorsports brigade appeared to be strong in terms of speed. The #7 and #9 teams appeared to be the best of the bunch. Byron has not performed well in recent weeks averaging a 16th place finish over the last 8 races. The majority of those finishes were a result of bad luck or misfortune. Despite the lack of strong finishes, I am still optimistic that Byron can contend for wins in these last few weeks of the season. The team has never lacked so speed so it would not be surprising to see Byron contend and possibly regain that mid season form when he won 3 times in a 5 race span.
Among the Xfinity Series drivers, I also thought teammates Brennan Poole and Tyler Reddick were strong yet again. I don’t think either driver had “winning” speed but it is obvious the Chip Ganassi Racing cars have found speed since the start of the Chase. In fact, Poole was probably the best car in terms of raw speed in practices outside of Byron among the Xfinity Series regulars. Therefore, I believe you can find some value in H2H matchups with the Chip Ganassi Racing cars if you can find them paired against lower tier drivers.
I will admit that I was overall impressed by the speed shown by most of the Xfinity Series regulars. However, I still expect this race to be a two man competition between Ryan Blaney and Erik Jones. Daniel Suarez could possibly sneak into the competition because he is good at these track types and he is the defending Drive Sober 200 winner. My biggest hesitations with Suarez is the fact that he is winless in 12 starts this year. For Jones and Blaney, they have combined for 3 wins this season. Not only are they both the best drivers in tomorrow’s field but you could easily say they have two of the best cars. In practices on Friday in race trim, Blaney was easily laying down the fastest consecutive laps. I thought he was in a different time bracket compared to the competition. However, everyone should remember Jones typically races well and he is a former Dover winner. So don’t count him out either. I just prefer Blaney from observations surrounding Friday’s practices.
2017 Drive Sober 200 Race Predictions
William Byron +550 (1.25 units)
Justin Allgaier +950 (1 unit)
H2H Matchups and Props
Ryan Blaney +125 wins Drive Sober 200
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.25 units to win: TBD
H2H Matchups and Props
Brennan Poole -155 over Brendan Gaughan (2 units)
