2017 Drive for the Cure 300 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Betting Preview
Saturday October 7th, 3:15PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The Xfinity Series will take center stage tomorrow afternoon at the home of NASCAR at Charlotte Motor Speedway with the running of the Drive for the Cure 300. As the Xfinity Series prepares to conclude the opening round of the Chase and set the stage for the Round of 8 in two weeks, we take this time to provide dialogue surrounding betting opportunities for tomorrow’s race. With limited Cup Series talent participating and a host of Xfinity Series regulars posting fast laps in practice, it appears that we may have some disparity among the “perceived” favorites. Take a look as we discuss that and more with our 2017 Drive for the Cure 300 race predictions!
Last week Ryan Blaney earned his 2nd Xfinity Series win of the season at the Monster Mile. Blaney dominated the race by leading 136 of the scheduled 200 laps in route to victory. With another similarly talented field, Blaney appears to at least be the perceived favorite once again heading into Saturday’s Drive for the Cure 300. Not only did Blaney win last week but he also won the last Xfinity Series race at Charlotte back in May in the Hisense 300. On that day, Blaney piloted the #12 machine to a victory over the likes of Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and others. Therefore Blaney will have the chance to win back to back races and accomplish the same feat in accordance to race at Charlotte.
From a competition standpoint, Blaney is probably the best overall talent in the field perhaps with Erik Jones. Daniel Suarez, Austin Dillon, and Ty Dillon are the only other Cup Series talents in the field. At least for the Dillon brothers, they have not shown speed that can win races this season at the 1.5 mile tracks. Both Jones and Suarez looked pretty solid in practices. Suarez actually posted the best 10 lap average in Happy Hour. However if you have read my previous previews, I don’t think you can rely on Suarez’s chances of winning with confidence. He is 0 for 13 this year and has only finished in the top 10 in 1 of his 3 starts on the 1.5 mile tracks. So if you want to take Suarez based on the speed shown in practices, be my guest but it seems like a high risk situation.
Both Jones and Blaney were pretty strong in final practice. I expect both cars to be the favorites going into tomorrow’s race with the edge going to the #22 car. However, I will say that Blaney’s teammate also looked very strong in practice by the way of part time star Sam Hornish Jr. Hornish has proved to be resilient to limited seat time with 2 wins in the past two years despite just 8 overall starts. I believe Hornish has to be given consideration given his boom or bust potential. The problem is that he has “busted” more often than not. Outside of the win at Mid-Ohio, Hornish has finished worse than 30th in his 3 starts this year. More importantly, Hornish has never been “great” on the 1.5 mile tracks in particular Charlotte where he has just 1 top 5 finish in 7 starts. Therefore if you were thinking about Hornish as a potential dark horse, I would probably bet against it.
The drivers that I do expect to be dark horses on Saturday surround JR Motorsports teammates William Byron and Justin Allgaier. I am here to tell everyone that these two teams have found speed and are peaking at the right time. Allgaier has posted finishes of 2nd and 3rd thus far in the Chase. Meanwhile Byron led 63 laps in route to a 3rd place finish last week at Dover at a track where he somewhat struggled at back in June. Both cars looked really strong again in practices on Friday proving that their speed in recent weeks is legit. I am not sure who I would favor in terms of Allgaier vs. Byron. I would probably lean towards Allgaier but either driver is worthy of dark horse potential. In fact, I believe the championship will come down to these two drivers.
Lastly, I always like to leave everyone with a few extra thoughts in terms of potential H2H matchups or value in unforeseen places. I know I mentioned earlier that the Dillon brothers have not shown “winning” speed this year. However, I believe you can consider Austin Dillon in matchup situations due to his impressive Charlotte resume that includes a top 3 finish in 5 of his last 6 starts at Charlotte highlighted by sweeping both races in 2015. I am not sure the older Dillon has the horsepower to contend for the victory but he still knows how to get around Charlotte which adds H2H value. Additionally, another guy that should be given some consideration is Alex Bowman. I thought Bowman’s lap times were excellent. For those that do not know, Bowman is piloting the #42 car this week to get some seat time in a ride that is sponsored by Hendrick Motorsports. So far the ride has looked fast, it will be interesting to see if Bowman can keep that ride at the front of the field.
2017 Drive for the Cure 300 Race Predictions
Erik Jones +500 (1.25 units)
Justin Allgaier +2250 (1 unit)
Two Team Parlay
Ryan Blaney +195 wins Drive for the Cure 300
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD
H2H Matchups and Props
Justin Allgaier -130 over Elliott Sadler (2 units)
