2017 Daytona 500 Race Predictions

2017 Daytona 500 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday February 26th, 2:31PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Sunday 40 of the most talented drivers in the world will take to the high banks of Daytona International Speedway in search of NASCAR glory in the Daytona 500. If there is one race that can cement a driver into NASCAR’s legacy, it is unquestionably the Daytona 500. Tomorrow another name will be added to the Harley J. Earl Trophy in the 59th running of the Great American Race. On the heels of the most exciting Daytona Speedweeks in the modern era due to NASCAR’s new 3 segment race formats that have force-fed aggressive and exciting racing, tomorrow’s Daytona 500 has the potential to be one of the best races in recent memory. Therefore take a ride with us as we kick off the year in exciting fashion with a full race preview and ultimately provide our 2017 Daytona 500 race predictions!

The magnitude of the Daytona 500 alone is enough to get any racing fan excited for tomorrow’s race. However if you have followed the racing action this week through the duels on Thursday, the Truck Series on Friday, and the Xfinity Series earlier today; then you have witnessed some of the most exciting racing seen in recent memory. Some of the action has been heightened by NASCAR’s new 3 segment race formats. If you are unfamiliar with the change, NASCAR races will now be broken down into 3 segments and points will be awarded to finishers of each segment which can have championship implications during the Chase for each series. On Friday and earlier today, we saw wrecks at the end of the first segment and more aggressive driving throughout the entire race because of this new format. Of course some of the wild action and big wrecks can be attributed to restrictor plate racing which is notorious for causing chaos. However, the new race format has undoubtedly increased the action on the track. Therefore, tomorrow’s race will have an extra element of excitement that we have not seen previously in the Cup Series.

From a betting standpoint, it may be a little discouraging to see so many big wrecks and aggressive driving that have retired so many drivers this week often early in the events. After all one wreck at Daytona can nearly wipe out an entire field and easily an entire betting lineup in unfortunate situations. However, there have been a lot of good omens and notables that indicate tomorrow’s race may not be too unpredictable. The best news is that despite new race formats, new drivers and teams, and heck even a new title sponsor in the Monster Energy Cup Series; the actual aero race packages are almost identical to what we saw on the restrictor plate tracks in 2016. In fact the 3 drivers (Brad Keselowski (2), Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano) that won the 4 restrictor plate races last year, have emerged as clear favorites again tomorrow. Hamlin backed up his 2016 Daytona 500 win with another win in the Can-Am Duel races on Thursday. The #11 has been very strong throughout the week and Hamlin is looking to become the first back to back winner in the 500 since Sterling Marlin (1994-1995).

Therefore I feel like we can put together a pretty solid baseline of some guys that should race well and we just have to hope they can dodge the wrecks and carnage once the green flag waves. Also, there is more good news in the fact that odds have been pretty generous throughout the week. Outside of the top 4-5 drivers, you can get excellent odds for the remainder of the field which will add a ton of value to your betting card. Guys like Jamie McMurray, Clint Bowyer, and Austin Dillon have been very impressive throughout speedweeks meaning it may not be a bad idea to put on the underdog cape for tomorrow’s event especially since those drivers are being nearly 30-1 odds. If you need a sportsbook, to give you great odds then go ahead and get signed up with 5Dimes for the best odds. If you are looking for another book to shop around for more NASCAR odds and take advantage of numerous prop bets for tomorrow’s grand event, then check out Bovada. Both sportsbooks are great for NASCAR and each has their advantages over the other.

Once you have the sportsbooks setup, now it is just time to make some calculated decisions. I always approach these restrictor plate races with a low risk/high reward strategy. Try picking 1-2 primary drivers and then fill your lineup with value because big paydays are very plausible for these races where so many drivers can win. I mentioned a few of the drivers I like as dark horses earlier in Austin Dillon, Clint Bowyer, and Jamie McMurray. I would encourage everyone to look into those guys. Dillon had the best restrictor plate average among all drivers last year and has shown pack racing skills on several occasions. Just look at today’s Xfinity Series race for reference.

Jamie McMurray has driven very aggressively this week which is needed and he was very strong in the Duel race on Thursday finishing 2nd to Chase Elliott. McMurray has scored 4 of his 7 career wins at the plate tracks and I think he is a legitimate threat for tomorrow’s Daytona 500. Likewise, Bowyer is another guy that deserves some attention as well. Bowyer’s career was put on the back burner last year as he held a participation trophy with HScott Motorsports as he awaited to take over Tony Stewart’s seat in the #14 machine. I don’t believe Bowyer’s talent has diminished and I think that will be apparent very early this season when he gets to strap into better equipment. Therefore, I think Bowyer is a sneaky but perhaps sharp play for Sunday.

If you want to look into a few drivers with even bigger long shot type odds, do not look past Trevor Bayne (2011 Daytona 500 winner) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr maybe a few dark horses with lottery type potential. Bayne just seems to have a knack for finding the front at Daytona evident by his fairly strong showing on Thursday and I personally believe Stenhouse is a very under rated plate racer with tremendous odds. Therefore, I just wanted to throw out several drivers that have value in terms of betting odds.

From a pure racing standpoint, I believe Hamlin, Keselowski, Earnhardt Jr, and Logano are the drivers to beat. I would actually rank them in that order too. I have not mentioned Earnhardt previously but I think his resume at plate tracks is self-explanatory. Outside of those 4 favorites, I would personally put Kevin Harvick or Chase Elliott next in-line. Both Elliott and Harvick are receiving intermediate type odds. I am little surprised Harvick is near 15-1 because the Fords from Stewart-Haas Racing have looked very solid thus far through speedweeks. I know there has to be some manufacturer concerns with Harvick and the entire Stewart-Haas Racing team with their transition from Chevrolet engines last year. However, none of their cars have lacked any speed and that bodes well for Harvick. Elliott is another guy that I think could challenge at the front of the field. I was thoroughly impressed with Elliott in the Duel races on Thursday especially with how he looked out in front. Elliott looked like a 10 year veteran at the head of the field blocking both inside and outside lanes from building runs to get past him. If he can get that position late on Sunday, he could score his first win at the biggest venue in NASCAR.

2017 Daytona 500 Race Predictions

*Odds courtesy of 5Dimes

*Check back closer to race time for added plays!

Chase Elliott +1300 (1 unit)
Kevin Harvick +1400 (1 unit)
Jamie McMurray +2650 (.75 unit)
Austin Dillon +3100 (.75 unit)
Trevor Bayne +6400 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Denny Hamlin/Brad Keselowski +335 wins Daytona 500
Austin Dillon -125 over Erik Jones
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1025

H2H Match-ups and Props

Austin Dillon -125 over Erik Jones (2 units)
Trevor Bayne -130 over Aric Almirola (1 unit)
Kasey Kahne -115 over Daniel Suarez (1 unit)
Harvick +260 wins Group B over Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth (1 unit)
McMurray +250 wins Group D over Kasey Kahne, Ryan Blaney, Ricky Stenhouse Jr (1 unit)

The following prop bets courtesy of Bovada:

Jamie McMurray +1000 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Clint Bowyer +300 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)