2017 Daytona 500 Odds and Early Predictions

2017 Daytona 500 Odds and Early Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

In just less than two months, NASCAR will return in a big way when the green flag waves for the 59th running of “The Great American Race” in the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. The 2017 season will mark the dawn of a new era as the Cup Series transitions to their new primary sponsor under Monster Energy in what will commonly be known as the Monster Energy Cup Series. While the new sponsor name will be a major headline, the biggest headline going into NASCAR’s grandest event will be the return of Dale Earnhardt Jr who missed the 2nd half of the season last year due to lingering concussion related symptoms. Earnhardt is easily the most recognizable name in NASCAR and his popularity in the sport can be paralleled to Tiger Woods’ larger than life persona in golf. Not only is the return of NASCAR’s most popular driver heavily anticipated but Earnhardt is actually the early favorite to win the Daytona 500 at 6.25 to 1 odds due to his unprecedented resume on restrictor plate racetracks. Today we take an early look at the 2017 Daytona 500 betting odds and provide a few early opinions on drivers that hold tremendous value. Take a look as we present our “2017 Daytona 500 Odds and Early Predictions” as we look for another exciting year surrounding NASCAR.

*Odds courtesy of 5Dimes. Check out promotional offer below:

Best NASCAR Sportsbook

5Dimes

Are you looking to bet on NASCAR online in 2017? Get the sportsbook with the best odds and the only sportsbook that allows you to parlay race winners with any other type of bets. Unlike other sports, NASCAR betting yields the opportunity for huge paydays that can regularly be 10 times your original investment if not more. Outside of picking winners, the most important aspect to NASCAR betting is getting the best odds. We explain the long term importance of getting the best odds here: NASCAR Odds – Getting The Best Number.
Therefore, use the link below to take advantage of instant promos and gain access to the best odds in NASCAR!

It is not surprising that Earnhardt opens as the overall favorite. Earnhardt, who has won NASCAR’s Most Popular Driver Award for 14 years in a row, has officially scored 10 victories on restrictor plate tracks in points races which is the most among active drivers. Earnhardt actually holds claim to 11 Daytona victories when you combine the non-points races that includes a resume total of: 2 Budweiser Shootout wins, 5 Can-Am Twin 150 wins, 2 Coke Zero 400 wins, and ultimately 2 Daytona 500 wins. To simplify things, Earnhardt is the best driver to navigate the draft in these types of races so he is always going to be a favorite. However, it is hard to bet the “chalk” at a place like Daytona where you typically have very generous odds among the competition. Since the draft is the great equalizer, these races are in many ways unpredictable and that is why you want to make sure that you are getting the best “value” in your bets. Earnhardt may be a great bet but it is too early to make that assumption before we have see any cars on the track.

I would not advise anyone to bet on any driver that is less than 10-1 odds this early before Daytona Speedweeks which will transpire in late February. It is just not smart to lock in favorites this early in the process unless you have a feeling their odds will decrease significantly and even then you are taking a risk because we have not seen any on track time. Since anything under 10 to 1 is considered pretty low at Daytona in terms of odds, I would advise everyone to look at these early odds to simply identify guys that have extreme value. My rule for any bets this early would be to avoid taking any driver unless you think their current odds are at minimum 1.5-2 times the value you expect to see on race day. When betting the Daytona 500, it is always nice to see what drivers and more importantly what teams have shown speed through Daytona Speedweeks before we start making bets in most ideal situations. However, that is not to say that there are not a few drivers who have tremendous value currently to consider. Therefore, let’s dive into the guys that deserve some early consideration that may have some potential of fulfilling an early ticket in your lineup.

Martin Truex Jr +2200

Martin Truex Jr had a breakout season a year ago with 4 victories. Before 2016, Truex had just 3 victories in 12 seasons in the Cup Series. However, Furniture Row Racing made a game changing move prior to the 2016 season as they transitioned from a Chevrolet power team to a Toyota team in alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing. Joe Gibbs Racing and their extended alliance with Furniture Row Racing was easily the best in the Cup Series last year combining for 16 wins collectively. What is even more surprising is that it was often Truex and the #78 team that was the best of the entire group. Outside of their 4 wins, Truex had several more dominating performances that should have resulted in victories. In last year’s Daytona 500, Truex nearly scored the biggest win of his career but came up just inches short in a runner-up finish to Denny Hamlin. Currently, Truex is receiving rather generous 22 to 1 odds for his chance to revenge last year’s loss. We already know he is in the equipment to get the job done and I would think Furniture Row Racing could be even better this year with the addition of the #77 car with Erik Jones. If Truex comes out with another impressive start in Speedweeks, his odds will be less than half of where they currently stand. Locking Truex in now, does not hurt your lineup in any way!

Austin Dillon +3300

If you are really brave, then consider Austin Dillon at 33 to 1 odds. I know this will not be a popular pick. After all, Dillon has yet to win in the Cup Series and betting for a driver to get their first win in the Daytona 500 could be conceived as psychotic. However, the number of first time winners in the Daytona 500 is not as low as most may think. In fact, 7 drivers which make up 12% of all Daytona 500 winners have scored their first victory in The Great American Race. For Dillon, I believe his chances are better than most would likely believe. Dillon performed really well last season by making his first Chase appearance and scored 13 Top 10 finishes over the course of the year. On the restrictor plate tracks, he was even better. He was the only driver in the Cup Series to finish in the top 10 in all four events at Daytona and Talladega. To add to that, Dillon holds the best average finishing position (11.7) among active drivers. Since his rookie season in 2014, Dillon has finished inside the top 10 at Daytona in 5 of his last 6 starts. As most are aware, the biggest battle to winning at Daytona is putting yourself in position to win in the closing laps. Dillon has done a great job of doing that and just needs to build off those prior finishes. I would not necessarily worry about locking Dillon into your lineup this early because there is a chance his odds could get even better but he is definitely a driver to monitor in the weeks ahead.