2017 Coke Zero 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 1st, 7:50PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
One of the most popular races of the year will take place later this evening when the Monster Energy Cup Series drops the green flag for the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona International Speedway as we kickoff the celebration of our nation’s Independence Day weekend. If things were not already patriotic enough, Dale Earnhardt Jr will lead the field to the green flag in his last ride at Daytona after winning yesterday’s Coors Light Pole. The Earnhardt name is sort of synonymous with Daytona International Speedway. Tonight Dale Earnhardt Jr will be the emotional and odds on favorite to win the Coke Zero 400. Therefore we take the time to discuss Earnhardt’s chances as well as others as we provide our 2017 Coke Zero 400 race predictions!
I will be the first to admit that I will be among those pulling for Dale Earnhardt Jr tonight. He has been the best restrictor plate racer in the business over the last several years and he is very fun to watch in these types of races. However, Dale Jr’s odds from a betting standpoint do not leave much room for comfort in terms of ROI. Currently, Dale Jr is listed at less than 6-1 which is extremely steep for a restrictor plate race that is full of unpredictability. In his career, Earnhardt has scored 10 wins (points races) in 69 starts which is roughly a 14% winning percentage. While that winning percentage is far better than any other driver, that is not strong when considering Earnhardt’s current odds. Not to mention, Earnhardt has not been as dominate in the last few starts at Daytona either. Therefore, I will be a fan tonight for the #88 but I will not have any betting interest.
I have written several restrictor plate predictions and I always mention the odds in these races more so than other weeks. I believe lineup construction is just as important for ROI in restrictor plate races as it is for picking the fastest cars. Just look back to the Daytona 500 when more than half of the field, including the fastest cars, were eliminated to big wrecks. Those possibilities will always exist for restrictor plate racing so it is always important to have return on your lineups. Fortunately outside of Dale Earnhardt Jr, odds are pretty manageable for the remainder of the field.
Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski are the only other drivers that are under 10-1. I am not sure I agree with Busch’s odds. Keselowski on the other hand is pretty justified. He actually has a better winning percentage than Dale Jr at restrictor plate races (5 wins/33 starts = 15.15%). However, the majority of that success has come at Talladega in terms of wins. Keselowski did earn his first Daytona victory in this race one year ago and deserves some serious respect due to his plate racing talent. I just want better odds from a betting standpoint. If you are considering fantasy picks, feel free firing up the #88 and #2 into your lineups despite the big salary caps.
Among the drivers that I like from an odds perspective and overall probability measurement include guys like Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, and Joey Logano. I would list that group of drivers among the upper echelon of choices based on restrictor plate performance and odds. Hamlin has been as good as anyone at Daytona in recent years with a 2016 Daytona 500 victory and the best 10 race average among any driver. Kurt Busch has also been very strong at Daytona winning the 500 earlier this year and posting several impressive runs in recent years.
Both Harvick and Logano are really strong restrictor plate drivers. Logano has 3 victories in the last 3 seasons including the 2015 Daytona 500 win. Harvick has won both the 500 and the Coke Zero 400. He has actually been very close on several other occasions as well. Meanwhile, Chase Elliott is a guy that I just feel like is going to be a really good restrictor plate racer. Obviously we are on the frontside of his career but he has shown strong signs of plate racing talent. Just look at his performance earlier this year in the 500 when he danced around the front of the lead pack much like we have seen from Dale Jr throughout his career at Daytona. Any of the drivers listed above are solid choices in my opinion and should be given some type of consideration if we are going to discuss potential winners.
Obviously the case can be made for many drivers tonight, those are just a few of the somewhat “favorites” that I really like any time the restrictor plate racing comes around. I also believe people should consider the likes of Jamie McMurray, Austin Dillon, and Clint Bowyer as dark horses. McMurray has had restrictor plate success and drives very aggressively in these races. His aggressive driving gets him in trouble a lot but it has also paid off on several occasions as well including in this race in 2010. I would not consider McMurray on a fantasy lineup because of that high risk driving style but a long shot for the win may not be out of the question.
Both Dillon and Bowyer are dark horses that I believe are undervalued. Dillon has been very consistent at Daytona averaging a 12.6 finishing position in his 8 career starts. Bowyer has also been very consistent with 4 top 10 finishes in his last 6 starts. Some of those finishes come via mediocre equipment and let’s not forget Bowyer’s career 15.54 average finishing position at restrictor plate tracks is 2nd to only Dale Earnhardt Jr. I know consistent finishes are not always an indicator for potential winners but I do believe that putting yourself in position for victories is a big part of the battle for Daytona. Therefore, I really like guys like Dillon and Bowyer that do a good job of surviving to be around at the end of these races.
Still, there are several more drivers that are capable of winning. Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth have multiple wins at Daytona. Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, and Martin Truex Jr have been fantastic under this new package despite some lackluster historical performances at the plate tracks. From a fantasy perspective, I like Daniel Suarez and David Ragan as options to move forward from their starting positions. I have said it a couple of times and will say it again. There are no “wrong” picks at the plate races. Just make sure that the drivers are good at this style of racing and make sure the odds make sense. Good luck!
2017 Coke Zero 400 Race Predictions
Denny Hamlin +1400 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +1800 (.75 unit)
Clint Bowyer +1800 (.75 unit)
Austin Dillon +4500 (.5 unit)
Daniel Suarez +6600 (.25 unit)
Ryan Newman +8000 (.25 unit)
Michael McDowell +11000 (.25 unit)
Two Team Parlay
Joey Logano/Brad Keselowski +418 wins Coke Zero 400
Daniel Suarez +120 over Erik Jones
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1300
H2H Matchups and Props
Jamie McMurray -130 over Kasey Kahne (2 units)
Austin Dillon +500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
