2017 Coca Cola Firecracker 250 Race Predictions

2017 Coca Cola Firecracker 250 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Friday June 30th, 7:30PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Tonight we kickoff our 4th of July celebration, NASCAR style, with the running of the Coca Cola Firecracker 250 at Daytona International Speedway. There are few words in racing that make an impact like the words “Daytona” because it is home to the biggest race in motorsports in the Daytona 500. However, NASCAR’s annual return to Daytona in July on the weekend of our nation’s Independence Day is also one of the biggest weekends on the entire schedule. While much anticipation surrounds tomorrow night’s Coke Zero 400, we will have the luxury of witnessing Xfinity Series racing at Daytona tonight in the historic Firecracker 250. Take a look as we prepare for tonight’s action and provide our 2017 Coca Cola Firecracker 250 race predictions!

I personally believe the Firecracker 250 may be the biggest race on the Xfinity Series schedule. If you combine the rich history of this race that goes back to the early 80s that blossomed with battles from Darrell Waltrip and Dale Earnhardt along with the modern history of winners that feature names like Stewart, Hamlin, Kenseth, Logano, Busch, and Dale Earnhardt Jr; then you have one of the most prestigious Xfinity Series events on the entire schedule. Tonight drivers will have the opportunity to add to the Firecracker 250 legacy if they can survive the chaos of restrictor plate racing and find the path to victory lane.

I should not have to tell anyone that restrictor plate racing is unpredictable, wildly chaotic, and in sometimes a handicapping nightmare. I think everyone should understand the risk associated with this type of racing. However, the profits can still be rather significant if you happen to endure the chaos and cash a winning ticket. Back at Talladega, we profited over 30 units between the Xfinity and Cup Series races despite two surprise winners in both Aric Almirola and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. While those wins were unprecedented, it is a good example of why you should still bet these races because the profits can have an impact on an entire season. Therefore let’s discuss the possibilities and probabilities for tonight’s Firecracker 250 at Daytona!

The first and most obvious choice that should be on top of everyone’s list is Joey Logano. Logano is a former Firecracker 250 winner (2011), is one of the most experienced drivers surrounding plate racing in tonight’s field, and is behind the wheel of a very promising #22 machine that has been fast everywhere this season. The only unfortunate item about Logano is that his odds are relatively low for a restrictor plate event. As mentioned earlier, risk in these races are high for any driver therefore we would normally look past overwhelming favorites where the odds do not compensate with the risk involved. However, I am a believer in the Logano’s chances tonight so I would not rule out any parlay or H2H possibilities to get some value in the #22 on your betting card.

Outside of Logano, the debate opens to a plethora of options. The unique thing about restrictor plate races is that there are normally not any “bad” picks at least to some degree. You obviously have a chance with any driver that you select to put on your betting card. You just need to make sure that your ROI is sufficient for the risk and that you are picking drivers that have a high probability of staying towards the front of the pack. Drivers that I feel are a good fit for that category with generous odds include the likes of Ryan Reed, Casey Mears, and Erik Jones.

I know that appears like a mixed bag of names but Reed has two Daytona victories including this year’s opener back in February. Reed has been one of the most consistent front-runners at Daytona in recent years and is currently 11-1 in terms of odds. Mears is behind the wheel of a #98 machine that has been very strong in the restrictor plate races. The #98 team helped Aric Almirola win this race one year ago and they backed up those efforts with a win at Talladega earlier this year. Therefore, the #98 is a proven winner and Mears has the experience from the cockpit to be considered a threat. Lastly, I would put Erik Jones in that upper echelon of guys as well because he is currently listed at near 9-1 odds which I believe is very generous. Jones does not have any restrictor plate wins on his resume but he has had several quality runs. Some of those promising runs have been foiled by unfortunate accidents outside of his control which is a product of this type of racing. Still, Jones is flying under the radar this week and I am not sure if I understand the reasoning. At near 9-1, Jones brings a lot of value.

Among other drivers, I have some interest in all of the JGR drivers. Justin Allgaier and Elliott Sadler are proven restrictor plate talents. William Byron is riding a wave of momentum that features a 2nd place finish at Michigan and a win last week at Iowa. More importantly, these JGR cars have been notoriously strong at the plate tracks. In fact, a JGR driver has finished 1st or 2nd in the last 3 Xfinity Series races at Daytona. Therefore, I believe all 3 are moderate threats against the competition for this evening’s race. If I had to choose from the group, I would probably lean towards Allgaier and Sadler based on experience alone. Truth be told, I believe more in the equipment than I do in a particular driver from the JGR camp.

There are several names that I will not mention that could have potential shots this evening. I hate to sound redundant but restrictor plate racing just opens up so many possibilities that you do not see at most tracks. If you look at the past winner list, the true “surprise” winners remain relatively rare. Still, I would like to leave you with two names that have some dark horse potential in the likes of Ty Dillon and Brendan Gaughan. Dillon has performed well at the plate races but has just been caught up in trouble more often than his finishes have reflected his performance. Meanwhile, Brendan Gaughan has done a good job of avoiding chaos in recent races and has posted several quality finishes including two 5th place finishes in his last two Daytona starts. Gaughan is one of those drivers that you would not expect to win until he does and then suddenly it is not that surprising when looking at his history. Therefore, I am trying to mention him on the frontside of that possible scenario.

2017 Coca Cola Firecracker 250 Race Predictions

Restrictor plate races are all about getting the best odds! If you are not getting numbers as good as our picks below, then get signed up with 5 Dimes

Erik Jones +850 (1 unit)
Ty Dillon +1350 (.75 unit)
Ryan Reed +1500 (.75 unit)>br />
Daniel Hemric +2000 (.5 unit)
Casey Mears +2000 (.75 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Joey Logano +295 wins Firecracker 250
Team 2 – Open
Risking .75 units to win: TBD

H2H Matchups

Casey Mears -125 over Brendan Gaughan (2 units)