2017 Coca Cola 600 Race Predictions

2017 Coca Cola 600 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday May 28th, 6:18PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Sunday marks one of the greatest days in racing starting with the Monaco Grand Prix, followed by the Indianapolis 500, and then capped off with the 58th running of the legendary Coca Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. For race fans, Sunday’s annual Memorial Day Weekend race festivities is the most prestigious racing day of the year. Therefore, we take this time to preview tomorrow evening’s famous 600 mile race that will end under the lights at Charlotte Motor Speedway and discuss which drivers have the opportunity to end Sunday’s full day of racing with a celebration in victory lane. Take a look as we provide our 2017 Coca Cola 600 race predictions!

Last year Martin Truex Jr came into Charlotte and dominated all Coca Cola 600 race festivities. He won the pole, he was the fastest car in practices, and then he went on to deliver the most dominating performance in Coca Cola 600 history by leading 392 of 400 laps in route to victory. However, Truex’s dominating win in last year’s race was an anomaly compared to most Coca Cola 600 races that have averaged over 30 lead changes in the previous 6 races. Typically, this race is very difficult to predict because qualifying takes place on Thursday (3 days ahead of the event) and all practices are run during the day. Therefore, track conditions are usually extremely different by the time the sun disappears into the lights of Charlotte Motor Speedway for this 600 mile race making it very difficult to predict who will have the best car by the end of the night.

For tomorrow’s race, we have another element of surprise in that Charlotte Motor Speedway adopted the traction compound that was previously used at Bristol Motor Speedway in hopes to improve side by side racing. In last week’s All-Star race, we saw every driver fight for the bottom of the race track and nobody was able to make any speed on the high side of the racetrack. As a result, Charlotte laid down a version of the traction compound, formerly used at Bristol, for the higher racing grooves in hopes to provide more side by side racing. Judging from today’s Xfinity Series race, it is still debatable if the substance has served its purpose. The only time the high groove really worked was for a short period on restarts and then most drivers migrated back to the bottom of the track. It is still a bit unclear if the higher grooves will come in late Sunday or if NASCAR will decide to lay down more of the traction compound overnight.

I believe those unknown factors could have some type of impact on the way the Coca Cola 600 unfolds on Sunday. While there are certainly a number of unknowns heading into tomorrow’s race, I choose to direct my energy towards the known factors for tomorrow’s race. Among the known items, I would say that Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr look like they could be the cars to beat. I would also say that the JGR cars look the strongest they have been all year on the 1.5 mile surfaces, and it’s Charlotte so you have to be considering Jimmie Johnson’s chances of winning tomorrow’s event. At least that is the biggest “known” items for me going into Sunday’s race. I am not going to pretend like I have the best gauge surrounding who I expect to win tomorrow. I don’t think anyone does and that is why you currently see so many drivers with low odds.

In fact, I am approaching this race with a low risk strategy because I really believe there are about 10-15 drivers that could potentially win this race if things go their way. Obviously there are about 6-7 drivers that have more probable chances to win tomorrow’s event but I believe there is more parity for this race over the course of 600 miles than most any other race we have seen this year excluding the restrictor plate tracks. With that being said, I still like what I have seen from Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr, and Ryan Blaney. Larson is starting in the back because he did not make it pass tech inspection in qualifying because the team was making repairs to his car after hitting the wall in the first practice Thursday. However, Larson bounced back with really strong showings in both of Saturday’s practices finishing 1st in the final session. Larson is actually using the same car that he used in last week’s All-Star race. Larson was probably the best overall driver in last week’s All-Star race and he says the car is even better with the changes that have been made in advance of Sunday’s green flag.

Martin Truex posted the best 10 lap average in practice 1 and has been solid in speed throughout the week. Truex has been the best on the 1.5 mile tracks this year with wins at both Las Vegas and Kansas. If you consider what that team did last year at Charlotte compared with their success this year, I don’t think you can overlook the #78. Another guy that has performed really well at the 1.5 mile tracks in recent weeks is Ryan Blaney. Blaney posted his best finish of the year two weeks ago at Kansas after leading 83 laps and also led the most laps back at Texas in early April. Earlier today Blaney posted fast laps in both practices finishing in the top 3 in speed despite running many consecutive laps to gauge his long run speed. If you also consider Blaney won the Hisense 300 earlier today over a very talented Xfinity Series lineup, then I think that only adds to his value.

However like I said earlier, there are several drivers that are worthy of consideration tomorrow. The JGR cars have looked strong on the heels of Kyle Busch’s win last week in the All-Star Race. I personally believe Matt Kenseth holds some serious dark horse value as he looked the best of any of the JGR cars and is flying under the radar entering Sunday’s event. Kenseth is also a two-time winner at Charlotte including the 2000 Coca Cola 600. The Penske cars did not practice well and honestly have not shown much speed at all going back to last week’s All-Star race. However, it is worth noting that the Penske cars have raced much better than they have practiced for most of the year. The #22 definitely found some speed in Saturday’s final practice and I imagine they will continue to make that car better. I am not sure if they have a winner yet, but progress is still being made at least from what I can see with the #22 team.

Among other potential candidates, Jimmie Johnson needs no explanation. I believe he may be the best driver that has ever raced at Charlotte with 8 victories and another 4 victories in the All-Star Race. Johnson came just short with a 2nd place showing in last week’s All-Star Race and I think this race sets up perfect for the #48 team as they just seem to get better the longer that these races progress. The #48 team has actually helped the #88 team a lot this week so there is hopes that Dale Earnhardt Jr can turn things around. Earnhardt actually got his setup from the #48 team at the start of the week and they have been building off it every since. Earnhardt was 7th in final practice and he desperately needs a good run to turn around what has been an awful season. I was originally going to fade Earnhardt for tomorrow’s race because he has been so bad in race conditions this season. However, I think they have received enough help from the #48 to keep them towards the front on Sunday.

There are a few more drivers that I would like to mention just to cover all those that have shown some speed. Among those drivers include Erik Jones, Jamie McMurray, and Kevin Harvick. I know it may be rather surprising it has taken me this long to mention Harvick’s name since he is a 3-time winner at Charlotte. Harvick has been solid throughout all sessions but has not been “great.” I think he is going to run strong but just not sure he is going to be strong enough. I think Erik Jones deserves some long shot consideration if he can keep the fenders on the car. He has been right with Larson and Blaney in terms of speed. Jones just has not had the quality runs to back up his value at this point in his rookie season but the speed is definitely there.

I am sure that several things will change over the course of 600 miles on Sunday. There should be plenty of “comer and goers” so to speak. I also would not be surprised if we see several cautions because Charlotte is starting to become one of the more “slicker” 1.5 mile surfaces on the circuit. I have no problem admitting that I don’t have the best handicapping insight for tomorrow’s event like I do most weeks and adjust my bets accordingly. In fact, I would question any “handicapper” that does not adjust his bets based on unfavorable situational spots. If you consider the wide arrange of variables entering tomorrow’s event combined with abnormally lower odds that reduce overall value, I believe you have that exact scenario for tomorrow’s event. Therefore, proceed with a bit of caution and just ensure you are getting the best value with the bets that you do lay down. Good luck!

2017 Coca Cola 600 Race Predictions

Start betting on the Coca Cola 600 immediately courtesy of Bovada!

Jimmie Johnson +900 (1.25 units)
Ryan Blaney +1700 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Larson/Martin Truex Jr +331 wins Coca Cola 600
Matt Kenseth +125 over Chase Elliott
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1080

H2H Matchups and Props

Jimmie Johnson -145 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Kyle Larson -110 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Ty Dillon -130 over Chris Buescher (2 units)
Total Cautions over 7.5 (-120) (3 units) Only found at Bovada!