2017 Camping World 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 19th, 3:44PM (EST) at Phoenix International Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
On Sunday, the Monster Energy Cup Series returns to action at Phoenix International Raceway with the running of the Camping World 500(K). Last week, we seen fireworks at Las Vegas Motor Speedway that resulted in fist flying between Joey Logano and Kyle Busch after the race. Tomorrow the high intense action returns as the Cup Series gets their first taste of short track racing in the Valley of the Sun. Yesterday we kicked the weekend off with a big underdog winner (Justin Allgaier +1350) in the Xfinity Series and we hope to keep the momentum going on Sunday. Follow us as we provide our thoughts on tomorrow’s race and provide our 2017 Camping World 500 race picks!
One of the main issues drivers and teams will fight on Sunday is trying to find ways to keep grip in the racecar. Tomorrow’s race conditions are expected to be very hot meaning this new low downforce aero package is going to be a handful for drivers. Phoenix is already a relatively flat track that is tough on rear grip and tomorrow’s weather conditions along with the new aero package are not going to help any grip issues. Therefore, expect drivers to be slide around a bit as they fight loose conditions. As a result, track position will be very important throughout tomorrow’s race as passing should get more difficult as the race progresses.
The good news is that we have several races under this new aero package under our belt and we have a pretty good understanding towards the drivers that are excelling under this new package. Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Larson have been the best drivers under this new package going back to it’s debut in 2016 and I do not expect that trend to change anytime soon. Larson and Elliott have shown exceptional skills with the lower downforce package racing like championship caliber drivers despite their young age. Elliott posted top 10 finishes in both Phoenix races as a rookie last year. Due to his hot start and top speed in practice #2 on Saturday, Elliott has elevated expectations once again for Sunday. Larson has not shown the take off speed that some of the other guys have shown this weekend but he has consistently been one of the faster cars on the long runs. Larson scored his best Phoenix finish last fall with a 3rd place run and he should be another driver to keep on the radar considering his hot start to the season as well.
One of the main threats for tomorrow’s race will be the polesitter Joey Logano. Logano won the most recent Phoenix race last fall and has had one of the faster cars since unloading. I mentioned earlier how important I expect track position to be on Sunday and Logano is already in an advantageous position starting from the top spot. From a practice standpoint, I thought Logano and Kyle Busch were the two best cars when considering both short and long run speed. How ironic the two guys that have been in the headlines all week for the fight at the end of Las Vegas appear to be the two best drivers. However, that is exactly what it appears going into Sunday. If you follow our forums, we took Busch early in the week at rather generous 8.5 to 1 odds. Rowdy has posted 3 straight finishes of 4th or better at Phoenix and to top it off he was the fastest car in 5, 10, and 20 lap averages in final practice. Therefore, the #18 appears to be the top dog heading into Sunday.
Among the other guys that are right there with the #20 and #18 in terms of speed, include Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex Jr, and Chase Elliott. I know what you are thinking, where is Kevin Harvick? After all Happy has been Mr. Phoenix winning 5 of the last 7 races but honestly the #4 car has struggled throughout the weekend. The team made big changes before both practice sessions and the car never had the feel that Harvick was looking for. I am sure Harvick will race forward from his 23rd starting spot but I do not believe they have a race winner unless they nail some of the overnight adjustments.
Instead, I like the guys that I mentioned above to be contenders on Sunday. Elliott is contending every week, Truex has built momentum off last week’s Las Vegas win with some really good speed, and Jimmie Johnson has been one of the best cars on the long runs. In fact, the #48 was right with the #18 over the course of 20 laps. Considering fuel runs can range up to around 80 laps, the long run speed may be the winning ticket and that is something the #48 team has shown all weekend despite a slow start to 2017. However, we have seen the #48 team end early struggles before with victories and I would not be surprised if this team is in contention during the latter stages tomorrow.
There are other drivers worth mentioning that have shown speed this weekend. I believe Kasey Kahne, Erik Jones, and Dale Earnhardt Jr are some solid mid-range guys to keep on your radar. The entire Hendrick Motorsports brigade has been strong and who can forget the speed the #88 team showed last fall at Phoenix with Alex Bowman behind the wheel? I think those guys may be valuable in H2H situations especially Jones who continues to impress in his rookie campaign. On the flip side of that story, there are some drivers on my “fade” list.
One of the top drivers that I have on my fade list, includes Austin Dillon. For whatever reason, the RCR cars have not shown much speed this weekend and Dillon has struggled heavily. The team had trouble just running consecutive laps earlier much less putting together any long runs. Therefore, I would not back off from fading Dillon in most matchups if the odds are not too juiced. Lastly, I would also add Trevor Bayne to the list. Bayne has had similar struggles throughout the weekend and his Phoenix resume somewhat embarrassing with a best 23rd place finish in 5 career starts. Bayne possess a dismal 30.6 average finishing position over those 5 starts. Therefore, I have Bayne on my fade list along with Austin Dillon. Check out the rest of my plays below:
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2017 Camping World 500(K) Race Picks
Kyle Busch +850 (1.25 units): 2005 winner, 4th or better in last 3 starts, best 5/10/20 lap averages in final practice
Jimmie Johnson +1000 (1 unit): 4 time Phoenix winner, 2nd best car on long run speed behind the #18
Kyle Larson +1350 (1 unit): excelling under new package with back to back runner-up finishes, should contend again, 3rd place last fall
Kurt Busch +2000 (1 unit): early forums pick, team really gained on speed in final practice, should race well
H2H Matchups and Props
Ricky Stenhouse Jr -120 over Trevor Bayne (3 units)
Kasey Kahne -165 over Austin Dillon (2 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr -130 over Matt Kenseth (2 units)
Jamie McMurray -105 over Ryan Newman (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +700 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
