2017 Brickyard 400 Race Predictions

2017 Brickyard 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday July 23rd, 2:44PM (EST) at Indianapolis Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Tomorrow afternoon 40 drivers will chase history when the green flag waves for the Brantley Gilbert Big Machine Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The history of Indianapolis stands alone as the pinnacle of motorsports and the greatest drivers in motorsports history are etched into its historic past. On Sunday, another driver will add their name to an historic list of past winners at the world’s most renowned speedway and earn a place in history. We take this time to talk about the drivers that will have a chance to kiss the bricks on Sunday as we provide our 2017 Brickyard 400 race predictions!

The prestigious history of Indianapolis was made famous by open wheel racing and one of the greatest races in all of motorsports by way of the Indianapolis 500. While NASCAR was not apart of that initial history, it has placed an imprint on Indianapolis Motor Speedway in the modern era. Some of the biggest and most historic names in the sport have claimed themselves winners of the Brickyard 400. Since the inaugural Brickyard 400 in 1994, the likes of Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt, Dale Jarrett, Bill Elliott, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, and Kyle Busch have all claimed victories at the Brickyard. Also, it was Dale Jarrett’s 1996 win that started the most well-known tradition at Indianapolis by kneeling down to kiss the bricks. Now that tradition is shared among both NASCAR and IndyCar as part of Indianapolis’s most well-known celebrations in racing.

So who can we expect to be kneeling at the end of 400 miles of racing on Sunday? Well I believe the name at the top of everyone’s list should be Kyle Busch. Busch has been phenomenal at Indianapolis in recent years and even won the pole for tomorrow’s Brickyard 400 earlier this afternoon. Usually on bigger tracks, average finishing positions become more volatile when you study statistics. However, Busch has posted short track type stats in recent years by averaging a 3.2 average finishing position in the last 5 races which includes two straight wins and two runner-up showings during that stretch. Also, I would throw in the sidebar that Busch also owns 3 Xfinity Series wins at Indianapolis during that same time period. I know some will argue that the #18 team has not been able to close the deal in recent weeks but what Rowdy has done at Indianapolis in recent years is unparalleled to anything we have seen done on the big tracks in recent years by a single driver. Therefore, he is the top driver going into Sunday’s race.

Now if Rowdy can not close the deal again, then the conversation really picks up through the remainder of the field and perhaps it is somewhat of a guessing game. One of the many unique things about Indianapolis is that this track is unlike any other in the world. Many will point to Pocono as a good handicapping reference but in reality Indianapolis is unlike any other track. It requires a balance of raw speed, somewhat aggressive corner entry, and excellent drive off the corner down the long straightaways. Therefore handling can be very important and with any track the size of Indianapolis “strategy” could easily come into play during the latter stages of the race. With that being said, I think the debate for the guys behind Busch are pretty wide open. Obviously Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Larson have easily been the best two cars on a weekly basis everywhere this season. Prior to the week, I believe Larson would be among the drivers to beat considering both of his wins previously the year have come on the larger 2.0 mile surfaces of Fontana and Michigan. However, neither Truex nor Larson have appeared as strong throughout practices compared to most weeks this season. Larson even qualified all the way back in the 25th position. While I would not count out either one of those guys, neither has had the look of a “winner” off the truck.

Instead I have been impressed by guys like Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson. Johnson’s 4 Brickyard wins are the 2nd most all-time and he typically runs very well at Indy. Additionally, this week was the first in many that Johnson showed strong speed throughout practices. The #48 finished 4th in Happy Hour and posted the best 10 lap average of the weekend. However, the #48 will be starting at the back due to a rear end change according to the team’s twitter account. Meanwhile, Harvick is another guy that always runs well at the Brickyard and has a 2003 win on his resume. The #4 was right with the times of Busch and Johnson in terms of 10 lap averages. Not to mention, he has been one of the most consistent frontrunners outside of the #78 and #42 in recent weeks. Also for those that do like to look at Pocono for handicapping similarities, Harvick finished 2nd at the Tricky Triangle.

For the last couple weeks, I have been preaching about the renewed speed shown from the Joe Gibbs Racing machines. I even turned that into a profitable call last Sunday when Denny Hamlin scored the first win for JGR on the season at New Hampshire. For this week, I still think the JGR train is a good bet. Outside of Busch for the reasons discussed above, both Hamlin and Kenseth are solid bets yet again this week. Kenseth likely would have won at New Hampshire last week if not for an untimely caution and then a bad call on pit road for 2 tires. However, do not overlook the fact that the JGR cars have tremendous speed which means both the #11 and #20 teams could easily be factors again tomorrow because they have continued to show speed throughout sessions so far this weekend.

Outside of those guys, I really do not have any true “dark horse” drivers that I usually like to give out. Chase Elliott was a guy that I thought would do really well this week but has struggled in practices. I still think he will race his way forward if they can get some handling issues fixed. I am still in a ‘fade Team Penske into proven wrong’ mindset due to their lack of speed in recent weeks and that mindset has residual effects on Ryan Blaney despite his Pocono win. I was somewhat impressed with the speed shown by Kasey Kahne and Jamie McMurray in practices. Obviously, McMurray has been the most reliable of the two options this year if you want to take either of those guys as H2H punts. However, the guy I believe has the most upside is the #77 of Erik Jones. Jones finished 3rd at Pocono (for those keeping track), was fastest in final practice, and was really happy with the car. I am not sure the #77 team has a winner on their hands but Jones definitely has a car that could surprise people on Sunday. For that reason, I believe he is a tremendous H2H play and potential long shot. Good luck!

2017 Brickyard 400 Race Predictions

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Kevin Harvick +700 (1.25 units)
Denny Hamlin +900 (1.25 units)
Erik Jones +2000 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

William Byron +140 over Erik Jones (Won)
Kyle Busch +350 wins Brickyard 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +980

H2H Matchups and Props

Erik Jones -115 over Jamie McMurray (2 units)
Paul Menard -140 over Ty Dillon (2 units)