2017 Boyd Gaming 300 Race Predictions

2017 Boyd Gaming 300 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday March 11th, 4:00PM (EST) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Saturday NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will go racing in Sin City in the Boyd Gaming 300 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Tomorrow’s race will officially kick off NASCAR’s “west coast swing” that features races at Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Fontana over the next 3 weeks. Last week Kyle Busch recorded his 87th Xfinity Series win at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Busch is also the defending winner of the Boyd Gaming 300 in a race he dominated last year by leading 199 of 200 laps in route to victory. Tomorrow Busch leads a star studded field filled with Cup Series veterans and a talented Xfinity Series lineup in search of a victory at the gambling capital of the world. Find out our thoughts along with our 2017 Boyd Gaming 300 race predictions as we attempt to cash a Vegas winning ticket!

Saturday’s 300 mile race at Las Vegas has the ingredients to be another exciting race similar to last week’s Rinnai 250 at Atlanta. Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson, Aric Almirola, Austin Dillon, and Daniel Suarez will join Kyle Busch from the Cup Series that will headline tomorrow’s field. Both Dillon (2015) and Keselowski (2014) are former Las Vegas winners in the Xfinity Series prior to Busch’s victory last season. Dillon has been really strong in all of his Las Vegas starts in the Xfinity cars with finishes of 7th, 6th, 1st, and 5th. Dillon currently holds the best average finish of any driver with multiple starts at Vegas in the Xfinity Series. However, I don’t think anyone would rule out any of the other Cup Series drivers that will be participating tomorrow including Daniel Suarez who posted the fastest lap in final practice earlier today.

From a practice standpoint, the JGR cars looked extremely strong just as they did a year ago when they finished 1-2-3. The JGR cars of Suarez, Matt Tift, and Busch were 1-2-3 on the leaderboard again in Saturday’s final practice. Obviously that favors heavily towards Busch who dominated this race a year ago by leading nearly every lap. However if you are pulling for a more competitive race, there is some good news. The good news is several cars looked to be right there with the JGR cars in lap speed throughout race trim. The JGR cars easily laid down the fast laps but both Penske Racing (Keselowski/Logano) cars and Kyle Larson were very close in terms of consecutive lap speed.

Despite making his very first start at Vegas in the Xfinity Series, Logano actually posted the fastest 10 lap average late in Saturday’s final session. I have been encouraged by the early performance from Penske Racing this season after a dismal 2016 campaign on the 1.5 mile tracks. Keselowski nearly pulled out the victory last week at Atlanta which proved Penske’s 1.5 mile troubles may be a thing of the past. If you add that fact along with Keselowski’s success at Las Vegas in both the Xfinity and Monster Energy Cup Series, I think he has to be one of the main threats along with Busch for tomorrow’s win. I am sure Logano and Larson will be in the hunt but I give Keselowski the edge over everyone but Rowdy.

When you have this many Cup Series guys in an Xfinity Series field and Busch is the obvious favorite at near 1-1 odds, it may be kind of hard to find values in future (race winner) style bets. Especially when you have a solid group of 4-5 drivers that could easily win this race which appears to be the case for Saturday. Therefore make sure that you are finding value in your lineup either by parlaying a race winner courtesy of 5 Dimes or by simply ensuring your betting strategy contains enough positive ROI. It would be easy to take 3-4 Cup Series drivers to earn an easy victory. However it is nearly impossible to bet all of those guys and yield a profit or at least any considerable profit. Therefore strive to prioritize your bets based on probability and value.

If you cannot find the value in race winners, I believe there should be a few hidden gems in H2H match-ups tomorrow that should strengthen our betting card. Guys like Darrell Wallace Jr and Ryan Reed had some sneaky speed. I thought Reed looked really solid in race trim which is a surprise because he usually does not perform well on intermediate track types so it will be interesting to see if the #16 team can maintain their speed on Saturday. Darrell Wallace Jr was another driver that stood out to me in terms of lap times. I actually thought Wallace could have been the best non Cup Series driver in final practice as he showed good take off speed and backed it up with consistency as well. Meanwhile guys like Justin Allgaier and Cole Custer were on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Custer finished 30th and 19th in two practices. Allgaier struggled severely for the 2nd week in a row as well. In fact, it is worth noting that all JR Motorsports cars struggled mightily during practices this week and Allgaier was no exception. I pointed out that Allgaier was a fade last week and that prediction came true when he limped to his 2nd straight 30th place finish. I think the fade play is in factor for both Custer and Allgaier again this week in lower tier match-ups.

Odds Courtesy of 5 Dimes

2017 Boyd Gaming 300 Race Predictions

Joey Logano +450 (1.75 units)
Brad Keselowski +650 (1.25 units)

H2H Match-ups

Darrell Wallace Jr -140 over Brennan Poole (2 units)