2017 Bojangles Southern 500 Race Predictions

2017 Bojangles Southern 500 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday September 3rd, 6:15PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Sunday, NASCAR returns to one of the oldest and most exciting venues in motorsports, in the heart of the deep south, with the running of the Bojangles Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. In recent years, Darlington Raceway has become notorious for paying tribute to NASCAR’s heritage and celebrated past. As a part of the weekend festivities, drivers and teams will run iconic throwback paint schemes to honor NASCAR’s prestigious history. While the throwback spectacle is always entertaining, we dedicate our time to discuss the drivers that we expect to challenge for a victory at the infamous Darlington Raceway. Take a look as we present our 2017 Bojangles Southern 500 race predictions!

There is a reason that Darlington Raceway has monikers such as “The Lady in Black” and the track is considered “Too Tough To Tame.” This racetrack is very difficult for drivers and more importantly very difficult for race teams to get the correct balance surrounding handling. Even with a good handling racecar, drivers can still make mistakes to earn the notorious “Darlington Stripe” because these corners are so narrow. I like to stress the difficulties of Darlington Raceway because there are so many things that have to be considered when handicapping this race. In the last 3 races alone, there have been 39 cautions and you can expect several more will be added this evening.

Surviving the carnage and avoiding trouble is just one piece of the formula to winning at Darlington Raceway. Nailing the correct race setup and adjusting on the car throughout the night will be equally important. Darlington is notorious for changing throughout the race and also everyone should understand that practices were held during the afternoon hours on Friday. Therefore, the track is going to be much different when the green flag waves shortly after 6:00PM (EST) this evening. For those reasons, I think tonight’s race is very difficult to handicap. I will be honest when I say that I am not as confident in tonight’s predictions as I am most weeks. I am not sure if I am hesitant because Darlington is so tough or simply because nobody looked overly impressive in practices.

Either way I believe we have to suspect Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, and Kyle Busch to be in contention this evening because they have been far superior than the competition on the ovals this season. In fact those 3 drivers have accounted for the last 4 wins in the Cup Series with Busch scoring two victories during that stretch. Busch posted the fastest lap in Happy Hour on Friday but it was Kyle Larson that blistered the field in 10 lap averages. Larson was extremely fast in the 10 lap averages chart and long run speed will be extremely important tonight. In reality, lap speeds well after 20 laps will be important because tire wear will cause lap speeds to fall off between 2-3 seconds over the course of green flag runs. For that reason, I don’t believe you can count out Truex considering his long run speed this season. In practices, Truex did not have the best single lap speed but you have to assume that team will be really good again in long runs as they have been every week.

Even though Busch, Larson, and Truex should be at the top of the list, there were several drivers that have shown speed this weekend which makes it even tougher to predict tonight’s race. Kevin Harvick won the pole on Saturday and has been solid throughout all practices. Harvick is excellent on tracks that have significant tire wear and big fall offs in lap speed. Behind Harvick who will lead the field to the green flag and the favorites listed above, I believe everyone has to consider Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski as potential winners this evening.

Keselowski looked great in practices which is surprising considering the struggles of Team Penske in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Denny Hamlin is possibly the best driver at Darlington among active drivers. Perhaps Jimmie Johnson could still that argument considering the fact he is a 3-time Darlington winner. However, Hamlin has been phenomenal finishing in the top 5 in 6 of 11 starts including a victory in 2010. Since that 2010 victory, Hamlin has posted finishes of 6th, 2nd, 2nd, 19th, 3rd, and 4th. Hamlin knows how to run this racetrack and always puts himself towards the front. Part of his Darlington skillset was evident on Saturday when he scored an Xfinity Series win in one of the most exciting finishes in recent memory. Considering the speed of the Toyotas in recent weeks, Hamlin has to be high on everyone’s list.

Again, I could list several other drivers as potential winners. Jimmie Johnson owns 3 wins at Darlington. Matt Kenseth has run well here in the past. However if we are considering current form and speed from sessions in the form of potential dark horses, then I would look at Kurt Busch and Ryan Blaney at longer odds. The elder Busch has been hit or miss this year. However, he has several quality finishes scattered in with some disappointing performances. Busch has shown a ton of speed this weekend so this maybe one of those weekends where the team has hit on the setup. Lastly, I would also consider Ryan Blaney among the group of drivers that could surprise. Blaney posted the 2nd best 10 lap average on Friday and definitely has some speed in the car. I question his long-term durability but the team still has speed nevertheless.

Despite all of the uncertainties surrounding tonight’s race, I still like to leave everyone with a few potential drivers that could perform well in fantasy or H2H matchup situations. I think you have to approach tonight’s race in a low risk format when considering the numerous drivers that could potentially win the Southern 500. On the contrary, there may be some advantageous betting opportunities in the form of matchups. I can assure you Ryan Newman will run well if he stays out of trouble. Darlington is Newman’s favorite track and it matches his relentless driving style. Newman has posted top 10 finishes in 7 of the last 10 races at Darlington and should hold excellent H2H value. I would also throw Daniel Suarez’s name out as a potential flier. Suarez has quietly put together a respectable rookie campaign and he has run well at Darlington in the Xfinity Series with back to back 3rd place finishes (2015/2016). He has not been extremely fast in terms of single lap speed but he is another driver that seems to do well on long runs. Therefore, Suarez could be a steal in the fantasy world.

2017 Bojangles Southern 500 Race Predictions

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Brad Keselowski +1000 (1.25 units)
Kurt Busch +2500 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Austin Cindric +270 wins Chevrolet Silverado
Denny Hamlin/Martin Truex +257 wins Southern 500
Risking 1 unit to win: +1220

Denny Hamlin +120 wins Sport Clips Haircuts VFW 200
Kevin Harvick +645 wins Southern 500
Risking 1.5 units to win: +2300

H2H Matchups

Martin Truex Jr -110 over Kyle Larson (1 unit)
Chase Elliott +100 over Erik Jones(1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +110 over Joey Logano(1 unit)
Kurt Busch +280 wins Group C (McMurray, Bowyer, Newman, and Kahne)(1 unit)