2017 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Predictions

2017 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday August 19th, 7:48PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

One of my favorite races of the season will take place later tonight when the green flag waves for the infamous night race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Bristol has always produced some of the best short track racing in the history of NASCAR but there is an added level of admiration for Bristol under the lights on a Saturday night. Tonight we get the best of both worlds in the race that has featured some of the greatest moments in the sports history from Dale Earnhardt’s infamous “rattle his cage” moment against Terry Labonte in 1999, to Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth’s famous scuffle in 2012, and so many more unforgettable moments. Tonight we prepare for the best of Bristol and breakdown who we believe could find their way to victory lane with our 2017 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race predictions!

One of the most prestigious and unforgettable moments in Bristol’s history came in 2010 when Kyle Busch swept the weekend winning all 3 races in the Truck Series, Xfinity Series, and Cup Series. It was one of the most unique and admiring accomplishments in recent memory marking the first time a driver had won in all 3 of NASCAR’s top series in the same weekend. Tonight, Rowdy has the chance to rekindle that 2010 memory in repeat fashion. Busch won the Truck Series on Wednesday night and also scored the victory in the Xfinity Series race last night. Therefore, the stage is set for another Rowdy sweep if he can pull off another victory this evening. Obviously it is going to be a difficult task against Cup Series competition but Rowdy is one of the best at Bristol tied with older brother Kurt with 5 wins for the most among active drivers. Most importantly Busch’s #18 Cup Series team has been performing very well in recent weeks, shown great speed in practices yet again, and appears to be peaking at the right time to really challenge for another sweep.

However being the best driver or even having the fastest car does not always result in a win at Bristol. Things can go left in a hurry at the “World’s Fastest Half-Mile.” A mistake on pit road, a blown tire, or other unscheduled pit stops can result in a driver losing 2-3 laps and immediately ruin chances for a victory. Even a bad pit stop under caution can result in a driver getting stuck back in traffic which can take forever to overcome. We saw that happen in the spring race when Kyle Larson suffered a pit road penalty after leading 202 laps in dominating fashion. Larson’s was not able to overcome the late penalty and that opened the door for Jimmie Johnson to score his 2nd Bristol victory. Therefore, the recipe for victory at Bristol is not only having speed, avoiding trouble, but also putting yourself in position for a chance at victory in the closing laps.

With that being said, I don’t blame anyone for taking a few long shot chances. A late race gamble on strategy on tires could put a driver in position that may not have had the opportunity otherwise. Considering how difficult it is to pass, I would be surprised if someone did not make a bold move for the win if a late race circumstance allows. For the drivers that we should expect to run towards the front, I would list Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson as my top two drivers for obvious reasons. Busch is a 5-time Bristol winner and holds 19 wins across all series at Bristol. He is the undisputed best at Bristol among active drivers. Larson does not have those impressive Bristol credentials yet but I believe his time will come. I consider Larson’s driving style to mirror Busch’s in so many ways. Larson has been really strong in Xfinity Series competition at Bristol with 3 runner-up finishes but has often found bad luck on the Cup Series side. Do not let that fool you because he is still one of the best drivers at this track just like he showed back in the spring.

For the rest of the field, the competition is wide open. I believe you have to mention the likes of Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, and Matt Kenseth based off track history alone. Kenseth has 4 wins at Bristol and has shown plenty of speed throughout practices indicating this may be one of his best opportunities to win before departing Joe Gibbs Racing. Johnson’s stats are surprisingly strong considering he struggled at Bristol during the beginning of his career. Johnson has 2 wins total and has compiled 5 top 5 finishes in the last 10 races. Harvick has been equally strong in recent races with finishes of 2nd, 7th, 1st, and 3rd. Meanwhile Logano, despite the challenges on the speedways with the #22 team, has been strong at the short tracks this year and owns the last 2 victories at Bristol under the lights (last year’s Bristol race was rescheduled for daytime due to rain).

If we are also talking about track history, I would be negligent to not mention Kurt Busch has 5 Bristol victories and Brad Keselowski has 2 Bristol victories as well. However, I dislike the current form of both teams and what I saw from both teams in practices to give them a legitimate shot tonight. In terms of the names mentioned above, I believe Matt Kenseth may have the best speed and I would also keep a close eye on teammate Denny Hamlin who is a former Bristol winner as well. The JGR guys have once again looked to have the cars to beat. I am just not certain JGR has the big speed advantage that we have seen at the bigger speedways this year but they have been strong nevertheless.

Even though there are so many drivers with strong backgrounds at Bristol, I am not giving too much credit to those drivers outside of the JGR camp. I think Larson has a great chance to score his first Bristol win and I am also looking at a crop of long shots that I feel have excellent opportunities this evening. Among the dark horses that I feel deserve attention include Clint Bowyer, Erik Jones, Ricky Stenhouse, and Ryan Blaney. Bowyer has an excellent track record at Bristol despite most of those finishes coming with Michael Waltrip Racing. Bowyer proved that he was capable of winning at Bristol in better equipment back in the spring when he piloted the #14 to a runner-up finish.

Meanwhile, pole sitter Erik Jones is someone that is starting to gain momentum. The rookie is starting to really put everything together and if he can stay up front then he could possibly put himself in position for a victory. I am not as high on Jones as I am the other dark horses but he deserves consideration. For Stenhouse and Blaney, I feel like they have some of the best value on the board from an odds standpoint. Stenhouse has been great at Bristol with the best average finish among active drivers over the last 10 races and has 2 runner-up finishes. Meanwhile, Blaney has been fast in every practice session but for some reason is flying under the radar. By the way, guess where Blaney’s first win came in the Xfinity Series? You guessed it, Thunder Valley!

2017 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Predictions

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*Check back closer to race time for added plays

Kevin Harvick +1600 (.75 unit)
Jimmie Johnson +2000 (.75 unit)
Clint Bowyer +3000 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +3500 (.75 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +4500 (.75 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch -175 wins UNOH 200 (win)
Kyle Busch/Matt Kenseth +247 wins Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race
Risking 1.75 units to win: +780

H2H Matchups

Denny Hamlin -125 over Brad Keselowski (3 units)
Kyle Busch -115 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse -130 over Daniel Suarez (2 units)